February 2023 Discussion

[tron777]

18Z NAM bailed on the Mon morning idea now, not much QPF at all. It still likes Mon night into Tues for snow and sleet across the Tri-state area and pints south. Frz rain on this run maybe across the extreme south.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM still likes early Monday with a weak low tracking across Central KY. Snow well north of I-70, sleet for the I-70 corridor and rain for Cincy. Mon night into Tues is a swing and a miss south.

[Bgoney]

Model suite today was pretty much a snoozefest for a.large part of lower 48 as far as any substantial wintry precip

[tron777]

18Z GFS has the stripe of snow North of the River Mon AM with rain to the south. A swing and a miss Mon night into Tues. Then for GHD, most of the moisture stays south, but it was a bump north from 12Z. It's a shame with regards to GHD, it held such promise.

[MVWxObserver]

Hoping the forecast continues dry for this Tues up my way as my folks will be going to Lima for a long-awaited getting established appt for my Mom with a rheumatologist.

[tpweather]

18Z GFS has the stripe of snow North of the River Mon AM with rain to the south. A swing and a miss Mon night into Tues. Then for GHD, most of the moisture stays south, but it was a bump north from 12Z. It's a shame with regards to GHD, it held such promise.

Good Evening and Les don't give up on the storm later in the week. Still believe that one will be stronger which means it should come back to the north. Before then it really looks like light precip for the most part and lets hope its snow and not frz/rain.

[tpweather]

Very little has changed overnight. Got these weak waves running along a cold front over the next week. Still believe the Thursday system has the best shot of giving us some decent precip. Before that really comes down to frz/drizzle or light frz/rain that is the concern for travel problems. Any snow before then will be light and should not cause any problems. I really thought this week would bring 2 good chances but it seems we may be down to 1. So really a typical late January early February type of week. Then do we get a milder period or does the really cold air that will situated in eastern Canada try and make a push this way.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Several days ago, I was way more concerned about a system tracking too far NW thanks to the SE Ridge. And I wonder, how is this happening? I had to think about it for a bit, and I believe this is the answer. The PV over Hudson's Bay is what is pressing down on the SE Ridge just enough for these waves to be a swing and a miss. Also, not getting a lot of deep moisture either from the Gulf thanks to zero northern stream interaction. So I think this is the problem that we are seeing on the guidance at this time.

I just don't see a strong enough signal to create a separate thread for any one particular storm system. I think we stand a shot at some kind of frozen precip Mon morning. NAM and RGEM seem to be the most aggressive with Mon night into Tues where most of the other models keep everything to the south. All models keep the GHD system, which is still the strongest wave showing up suppressed to the south so unless something changes, this is kind of where I'm at with the pattern for the upcoming week.

[tpweather]

You notice after this current system that the GOM is not adding much to these minor waves so precip totals are not that good. I do believe though by Thursday with the last wave the GOM will try an amp up some which should provide more precip plus the high pressure will become more of a dirty high and if you can get a system to strengthen up enough it will head further north. My guess this week you will see several pop up winter weather advisories in the middle of the country but they will be for a specific location like 2 or 3 counties and they will happen because frz/drzl or frz/light rain has put a glaze on the roads. This most likely occur as the precip is falling,

[tron777]

You notice after this current system that the GOM is not adding much to these minor waves so precip totals are not that good. I do believe though by Thursday with the last wave the GOM will try an amp up some which should provide more precip plus the high pressure will become more of a dirty high and if you can get a system to strengthen up enough it will head further north. My guess this week you will see several pop up winter weather advisories in the middle of the country but they will be for a specific location like 2 or 3 counties and they will happen because frz/drzl or frz/light rain has put a glaze on the roads. This most likely occur as the precip is falling,

I agree Tim.... there are going to be a lot of last minute decisions being made for local NWS offices and probably last minute adjustments to our forecasts on here as well.

[airwolf76]

I have to be honest i am almost ready to give up on this winter I know its still only January but I am losing hope by the day and the towel is in my hand. I really thought the first week of Feb would be something to get excited about and then after that they are talking about another warm up for the rest of the month. I will give it a another day or so to see if there is any hope as far as early February goes.

[tron777]

I have to be honest i am almost ready to give up on this winter I know its still only January but I am losing hope by the day and the towel is in my hand. I really thought the first week of Feb would be something to get excited about and then after that they are talking about another warm up for the rest of the month. I will give it a another day or so to see if there is any hope as far as early February goes.

No way that I am giving up on seeing a nice storm, at least not yet anyway. But I won't lie either. I am disappointed for next week. The set up really looked good but models did not have the PV handled correctly early on and IMO that's been the difference.

[airwolf76]

I have to be honest i am almost ready to give up on this winter I know its still only January but I am losing hope by the day and the towel is in my hand. I really thought the first week of Feb would be something to get excited about and then after that they are talking about another warm up for the rest of the month. I will give it a another day or so to see if there is any hope as far as early February goes.

No way that I am giving up on seeing a nice storm, at least not yet anyway. But I won't lie either. I am disappointed for next week. The set up really looked good but models did not have the PV handled correctly early on and IMO that's been the difference.

any sustained cold and snow I feel is gone at this point. I had so much hope and promise for early February and now nothing but depression and confusion . Saw a video recently and even the telleconnections look horrible after early February.

[tpweather]

I have to be honest i am almost ready to give up on this winter I know its still only January but I am losing hope by the day and the towel is in my hand. I really thought the first week of Feb would be something to get excited about and then after that they are talking about another warm up for the rest of the month. I will give it a another day or so to see if there is any hope as far as early February goes.

No way that I am giving up on seeing a nice storm, at least not yet anyway. But I won't lie either. I am disappointed for next week. The set up really looked good but models did not have the PV handled correctly early on and IMO that's been the difference.

any sustained cold and snow I feel is gone at this point. I had so much hope and promise for early February and now nothing but depression and confusion . Saw a video recently and even the telleconnections look horrible after early February.

Charles the good thing for you is next weekend will probably be your coldest period this winter so far.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has gotten more aggressive all of a sudden for tomorrow morning with an inch or so of snow for folks mainly north of Cincinnati, light rain south. Almost gets some snow in here for Mon night into Tues, but it's a swing and a miss all the same accept for a few flakes in our S counties. Wed / GHD waves are still well south.

12Z CMC is also more aggressive for Mon morning with snow to the north, a snow / mix for I-70 folks and rain to the south of that. Everything else after that is just south for most folks.

[tpweather]

Folks sooner or later with this pattern a big storm should hit but more likely a eastern seaboard system and we get the leftovers. Models are trying to grasp the PV and its movement so there is cold to tap we just need a system to ramp up. So no big warm ups imo and that helps but we need a more active northern jet stream to interact with the STJ as it has plenty of moisture but just need to phase a tad more with the northern jet.

Les great post above and I believe that is how the week is going to play out with last minute changes with ramp ups of precip more likely to show up.

[tron777]

I have to be honest i am almost ready to give up on this winter I know its still only January but I am losing hope by the day and the towel is in my hand. I really thought the first week of Feb would be something to get excited about and then after that they are talking about another warm up for the rest of the month. I will give it a another day or so to see if there is any hope as far as early February goes.

No way that I am giving up on seeing a nice storm, at least not yet anyway. But I won't lie either. I am disappointed for next week. The set up really looked good but models did not have the PV handled correctly early on and IMO that's been the difference.

any sustained cold and snow I feel is gone at this point. I had so much hope and promise for early February and now nothing but depression and confusion . Saw a video recently and even the telleconnections look horrible after early February.

Sustained cold and snow I agree is probably going to be tough but the threat for a snow storm IMO is always there until mid March for our area locally. Even when the Midwest had record setting snows in the 2007-2008 winter, and we only had 6" on the books thru Feb, we got that early March of 2008 blizzard that saved , what would have otherwise been a clunker of a winter. For our area, all it takes is one big storm to help out with the stats. Even in the dismal 1992-1993 winter, the March Super Storm occurred which everyone will never forget. It seems like sometimes, these clunker winters can produce a big one on their way out. Of course that doesn't work every time. Some are bad from start to finish like 2001-2002 or 2011-2012. But anyway, it's all I've got!

[tron777]

Folks sooner or later with this pattern a big storm should hit but more likely a eastern seaboard system and we get the leftovers. Models are trying to grasp the PV and its movement so there is cold to tap we just need a system to ramp up. So no big warm ups imo and that helps but we need a more active northern jet stream to interact with the STJ as it has plenty of moisture but just need to phase a tad more with the northern jet.

Les great post above and I believe that is how the week is going to play out with last minute changes with ramp ups of precip more likely to show up.

I sure hope so Tim! We need something to liven this place up.

[tpweather]

The good thing Les we are still above in terms of snowfall this winter but it really does not feel that way lol.

[tron777]

The good thing Les we are still above in terms of snowfall this winter but it really does not feel that way lol.

No it doesn't. Our stats would be awful if it wasn't for us getting lucky with the last Sunday event.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS has the best chance of wintry weather for northern posters for Monday morning but check out the Tues morning wave. Not a bad look! We just need to see this across the board instead of only 1 or 2 models. That is why I continue to have low confidence.

GEFS.png

[tpweather]

12Z GEFS has the best chance of wintry weather for northern posters for Monday morning but check out the Tues morning wave. Not a bad look! We just need to see this across the board instead of only 1 or 2 models. That is why I continue to have low confidence.


GEFS.png

I agree Les but a few days ago chances seemed better then the last two days or so they turned for the worse in terms of winter weather. Probably making an adjustment back towards what we were going with from the start. Getting the PV involved sure has problems for models is my guess and that is why this week could be full of changes and though no big storm looks likely early on lets see how this plays out. It beats the pattern we just came out of so I am looking for positive signs.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS has the best chance of wintry weather for northern posters for Monday morning but check out the Tues morning wave. Not a bad look! We just need to see this across the board instead of only 1 or 2 models. That is why I continue to have low confidence.


GEFS.png

I agree Les but a few days ago chances seemed better then the last two days or so they turned for the worse in terms of winter weather. Probably making an adjustment back towards what we were going with from the start. Getting the PV involved sure has problems for models is my guess and that is why this week could be full of changes and though no big storm looks likely early on lets see how this plays out. It beats the pattern we just came out of so I am looking for positive signs.

No doubt Tim, I've said it before to take each wave one at a time and nowcast most of this. We may seriously need to do that.

[tpweather]

12Z GEFS has the best chance of wintry weather for northern posters for Monday morning but check out the Tues morning wave. Not a bad look! We just need to see this across the board instead of only 1 or 2 models. That is why I continue to have low confidence.


GEFS.png

I agree Les but a few days ago chances seemed better then the last two days or so they turned for the worse in terms of winter weather. Probably making an adjustment back towards what we were going with from the start. Getting the PV involved sure has problems for models is my guess and that is why this week could be full of changes and though no big storm looks likely early on lets see how this plays out. It beats the pattern we just came out of so I am looking for positive signs.

No doubt Tim, I've said it before to take each wave one at a time and nowcast most of this. We may seriously need to do that.

Exactly Les and one thing I have noticed is the cold in the northern and central plains is pushing southeast but its not full bore where we are just cold and dry. Sure we are on the edge of precip through most of the week but all it takes is a little stronger wave and like you mentioned nowcasting is going to be huge with each system and also each system may just hit parts of the local area. Time to finish up some things before the 3pm kickoff and hard to believe only 3 more nfl games this season or 4 if you include the flag football pro bowl and no I don't include that as football.

[tron777]

LOL! I don't watch the Pro Bowl anymore since the rules have been changed. Haven't watched it in years. I don't think it is even played in Hawaii anymore either.