January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Any suppression concerns after the Artic air arrives?

None whatsoever from me thanks to the SE Ridge. I'm way more concerned about systems tracking too far NW like the current one coming in. The global models are running much colder then their ensemble counterparts at the present time. We'll just have to wait and see how things look after Wednesday's low is by us.

totally agree with this. I am more worried about a SE ridge then anything. still think the OV in general will be in prime spot for a big dawg in the next couple weeks though.

Fingers crossed! Maybe around Ground Hog's Day will be our chance.

[Bgoney]

Finally getting a chance to look at things down the road . PV feeling pressure and stretched but still no signs of a legit reversal

epsmean10hPa60N.png

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[airwolf76]

Any suppression concerns after the Artic air arrives?

None whatsoever from me thanks to the SE Ridge. I'm way more concerned about systems tracking too far NW like the current one coming in. The global models are running much colder then their ensemble counterparts at the present time. We'll just have to wait and see how things look after Wednesday's low is by us.

totally agree with this. I am more worried about a SE ridge then anything. still think the OV in general will be in prime spot for a big dawg in the next couple weeks though.

Fingers crossed! Maybe around Ground Hog's Day will be our chance.

yeah who knows at this point . would like to see some EURO support later this week to make me feel more confident

[Bgoney]

MJO is ready to roll through the maritimes over the next couple weeks hopefully it weakens as it does so

[tron777]

Finally getting a chance to look at things down the road . PV feeling pressure and stretched but still no signs of a legit reversal

From what I've been seeing are that the winds relaxed some to allow for some warming, but then recently ramped up again, which has halted that. Signs are that the winds will relax some again for more warming, but I completely agree. I don't see any signs of a legit reversal or PV split. A stretching of the PV I can see but not a true split.

[tron777]

MJO is ready to roll through the maritimes over the next couple weeks hopefully it weakens as it does so

It's out in Phase 3 per the Aussies. Models once again were totally wrong as it never got into Phase 2 first. If it doesn't weaken, our chances for wintry weather may be done for a while after the 1st week of Feb so hopefully we can cash in prior to 2/10.

[Bgoney]

MJO is ready to roll through the maritimes over the next couple weeks hopefully it weakens as it does so

It's out in Phase 3 per the Aussies. Models once again were totally wrong as it never got into Phase 2 first. If it doesn't weaken, our chances for wintry weather may be done for a while after the 1st week of Feb so hopefully we can cash in prior to 2/10.

I do like that first week in Feb. We finally should have some below normal temps in place and still be in a panhandle hook pattern. Juicy

[tron777]

MJO is ready to roll through the maritimes over the next couple weeks hopefully it weakens as it does so

It's out in Phase 3 per the Aussies. Models once again were totally wrong as it never got into Phase 2 first. If it doesn't weaken, our chances for wintry weather may be done for a while after the 1st week of Feb so hopefully we can cash in prior to 2/10.

I do like that first week in Feb. We finally should have some below normal temps in place and still be in a panhandle hook pattern. Juicy

Same here. This should be our next potential period to watch as we will probably warm up after that.

[Bgoney]

If this current system had any kind of cold air to work with it would have been a monster for a lot of the country. So just a slightly better push of cold during that first week should produce a good size winter storm nearby

[MVWxObserver]

Would rather have a lap dog storm.

[airwolf76]

basically after this weekend and into the first week of February looks like game on

[Bgoney]

The rest of the month is looking fairly benign with more above normal temps in the mix.

[tron777]

The rest of the month is looking fairly benign with more above normal temps in the mix.

I agree. The next system coming this weekend (Sat night thru Sun) is looking like a rain maker to me for most folks. Maybe, just maybe a few flakes at the end. I'm not impressed at all. The front just isn't going to drop far enough south thanks to the SE Ridge.

Still interested in early Feb near GHD. Models are all over the place but that is the next potential to keep that one eye open on.

[Bgoney]

24 days in the books with 7 to go. Where we currently stand temp wise since 1960

Screenshot_20230125-084939_Chrome.jpg

[tpweather]

24 days in the books with 7 to go. Where we currently stand temp wise since 1960




Screenshot_20230125-084939_Chrome.jpg

Over the past decade or so this has been the case with milder than normal Oct-Jan and then we go in the opposite direction Feb-May. I would love to switch those if possible. The new normal and at the end of year guess what we usually end up so close to normal in both temps and precip. How we get there is just somewhat different than the past few decades.

[tron777]

24 days in the books with 7 to go. Where we currently stand temp wise since 1960

At CVG, it's amazing we've done as well as we have this month in terms of snowfall. Thank God that Sunday worked out as it did or this would have been a month where CVG only got a Trace up until Sunday's system.

[airwolf76]

if i dont score today i will probably go the entire month with just a trace

[tron777]

12Z GFS rolling in and the Sat night / Sunday system still is coming in as a rain maker for everyone with a chance to end as some flakes esp northern posters. Really not a big deal for our forum coverage area. Looks to be a nice hit for portions of Iowa towards Chicago and over to Detroit.

Forecast confidence goes down hill significantly after that system passes. Cold air wants to try and get more involved but at the same time, the SE Ridge wants to fight back. The pattern will continue to be very active and we'll just have to wait and see until some of the model noise is sorted out on which system to key in on for wintry weather. I will say this now... snow, ice, and rain are all going to be possible and we will likely be riding that fence once again. It's just the way it is this winter and I don't see that changing at all for the 1st week and change of February.

[tron777]

if i dont score today i will probably go the entire month with just a trace

Good luck you!! Sure hope you can get something on the board.

[tron777]

I should probably start a Feb thread for this but kind of busy working at the same time so I haven't had a chance to do so. For Feb 1-2nd, something that is occurring in the modeling are that this system comes at us in two waves. The first should bring the cold air in to set us up for wintry weather for the 2nd wave, which maybe the stronger of the two. It'll depend on how much energy comes in via the STJ. The 12Z GFS actually has wintry weather for both systems, but I'm not counting on that occurring. The Euro's 0Z run makes more sense to me with rain with the first wave, then we get colder for the 2nd wave to produce.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS rolling in and the Sat night / Sunday system still is coming in as a rain maker for everyone with a chance to end as some flakes esp northern posters. Really not a big deal for our forum coverage area. Looks to be a nice hit for portions of Iowa towards Chicago and over to Detroit.

Forecast confidence goes down hill significantly after that system passes. Cold air wants to try and get more involved but at the same time, the SE Ridge wants to fight back. The pattern will continue to be very active and we'll just have to wait and see until some of the model noise is sorted out on which system to key in on for wintry weather. I will say this now... snow, ice, and rain are all going to be possible and we will likely be riding that fence once again. It's just the way it is this winter and I don't see that changing at all for the 1st week and change of February.

Great Post Les and yes next week looks very busy so get your rest Fri-Sun.

[tron777]

Thanks Tim. Canadian looked interesting for sleet, frz rain, and snow in the extended range. 12Z GEFS have the usual array of solutions as you would expect also.

[Bgoney]

When January comes to end , amazingly a huge percent of the lower 48 for the month , not just us ,will have gone without any arctic air involvement. if you count the last few days of Dec. it's over a month. By this weekend a bit of an Arctic air mass will reach southern Canada and by the first of Feb. trickle into the Northern plains . Ensembles still showing that air mass advancing into the OV is going to be a struggle , although we still should get into some below normal temps the first week in Feb and even colder air should at least be closer than at any point in January

[tpweather]

When January comes to end , amazingly a huge percent of the lower 48 for the month , not just us ,will have gone without any arctic air involvement. if you count the last few days of Dec. it's over a month. By this weekend a bit of an Arctic air mass will reach southern Canada and by the first of Feb. trickle into the Northern plains . Ensembles still showing that air mass advancing into the OV is going to be a struggle , although we still should get into some below normal temps the first week in Feb and even colder air should at least be closer than at any point in January

Makes so much sense and the other side of the world in China,India and now Japan are having some of the coldest temps ever recorded in those areas. Mother Nature always balancing things out and that is why we have life on this planet. Of course it was so much easier years ago to forecast the weather when the earth was flat.

[tpweather]

By this weekend though the upper plains and upper mid-west should have temps of -15 - -25 so at least catching the tail end of January with some arctic air and that should extend in at least the first week of February and hopefully some of that reaches far enough south and east to provide us with several chances of winter weather besides rain.