Sunday Wet Snow Thump 1/22/23

[tron777]

Ok folks... per Charles request, here's our new thread for the Sunday wet snow thumping! Clouds kept temps up overnight with lows in the lower 30s. Clouds will move out at some point today as weak high pressure moves in. Sun isn't up quite enough yet to see a good visible shot. Anyway, overnight models did not really change my thinking all that much. The Cincy Metro is right there on the line between 1-2" of slushy snow and very little occurring. As we discussed in the main thread, precip rate is going to be critical with this system for dynamic cooling to keep us snow. The moment the precip lightens up, we'll see a chilly, drizzly light rain. North and West of Metro Cincy should remain all snow and have the greatest potential at seeing 1-2" of accumulation. Timing wise... the action should begin Sunday morning and end in the afternoon probably around kick off time for the Bengals game.

Discuss!

[tpweather]

Sorry Les did not see the new thread for this and will post anything in the future about this system here

[tron777]

Sorry Les did not see the new thread for this and will post anything in the future about this system here

No problem at all Tim! All good my friend.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Through sunrise, cloudy skies will persist. Radar continues to
indicate some very light returns across parts of the northern
CWFA. This light pcpn is in the form of flurries or
drizzle/freezing drizzle. Concern is minimal for the freezing
drizzle given temperatures are right around freezing and road
surfaces remaining above freezing.

For today, surface high pressure will build east into the Ohio
Valley. Despite the high, moisture around 900 mb will remain
trapped underneath a subsidence inversion. There are some
indications that as the flow in this level becomes southerly,
some shifting and eroding of the clouds from south to north
should occur, but this will likely be along and south of the
Ohio River and late in the day. High temperatures will range
from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, the high will move off to the east. Clouds will be
on the increase from the west once again as an initial short
wave within a long wave trough moves from the southern Plains to
the middle Mississippi Valley. Initial lift from this feature
will result in pcpn developing to our west and southwest late.
Some of this pcpn may make it to our western CWFA toward
sunrise. Most of this should be in the form of snow. However,
our far southern areas could see a little bit of sleet/freezing
rain/or rain mixing in at the onset. Lows will range from the
upper 20s to the lower 30s.

Aforementioned short wave energy will move northeast toward our
region on Sunday. This feature will help perturb an area of low
pressure to our south which is forecast to move northeast from
the Tennessee Valley to the upper Ohio Valley. Overall dynamics
and frontogenesis vary amongst the operational models. However,
it is clear that we will see widespread pcpn. Pcpn will be
mainly rain and/or snow, with perhaps a little wintry mix across
the far south and southeast at the onset. Where pcpn falls as
snow, temperatures will not warm much from morning lows given
low level easterly then northerly flow (much of our northern and
central zones). Temperatures across the south and southeast
will warm some (closer to the low track) and pcpn will mainly be
rain. Using a collaborative QPF blend, and with snow to liquid
rations varying from 8:1 south to 12:1 north (a mainly a wet
snow), snowfall totals will range from little in our far south
and southeast to 1 to 2 inches from the northern Tri-State to
central Ohio and points northwest thereof (Whitewater, Miami
Valley, west central Ohio). This snow will stick to grassy and
elevated surfaces and will likely cause some slick spots on
untreated roads early on and when snow rates are at the highest.
Will continue to mention this snow in the HWO. Temperatures
will range from the lower 30s (northern locations) to the
mid/upper 30s across the south/southeast.

Widespread pcpn will be exiting east by late Sunday afternoon
into the evening as the short wave and low pass to our
northeast. Main mid level trough, however, will be pivoting
southeast into our area. This will keep a chance of rain and
snow in the forecast. Lows will range from the upper 20s to the
lower 30s.

[tpweather]

The NAM has started. Had very few times this season to really get excited about a new run but here we go and hopefully this is a trend that continues for several weeks.

[tron777]

12Z HRRR looked good! It kept the Metro all snow with rain / mixing issues for the SE.

[tpweather]

Les last night I saw the low popping up east of us and was trying to figure if that was the southern low moving northeast or the northern piece of energy a little stronger. Looking at the nam this morning and its early in its run it seems the upper system in the central plains may be a little stronger and further south which gives it a better shot of some sort of phase. This may not be a perfect phase but will be interesting. How long does the upper system stay in tact instead of the open wave it showed 36 hours ago which at that time the models were almost keeping us dry between the two systems.

[tron777]

Agreed Tim... we are seeing a partial phase with this system. 12Z NAM is a bit too warm for Cincy on south for much accum so that 1-2" zone is just North and West of the Metro area on this particular run.

[tron777]

3KM NAM basically showing the same thing as the regular NAM.

[tron777]

Finally can get a good visible shot now and as you can see, it's going to be a while before we see any sunshine today, Unless we clear out at the last minute for CVG, highs in the 30s today would not surprise me.

1kmv.gif

[tpweather]

Agreed Tim... we are seeing a partial phase with this system. 12Z NAM is a bit too warm for Cincy on south for much accum so that 1-2" zone is just North and West of the Metro area on this particular run.

Les even seeing a little banding northwest of here. That is a place if this run of the model is correct where 3-4 inches could fall somewhere between Indy and Dayton. Concerning temps today Les and you my thoughts on this in the winter and that is seasonal cold that moves in here almost always leads to models not understanding how we are in this valley and the clouds take forever to move out. Local met's are getting better at this in forecasting but we have been on this for over 20 years or in my case closer to 50 years lol

[tron777]

Agreed Tim... we are seeing a partial phase with this system. 12Z NAM is a bit too warm for Cincy on south for much accum so that 1-2" zone is just North and West of the Metro area on this particular run.

Les even seeing a little banding northwest of here. That is a place if this run of the model is correct where 3-4 inches could fall somewhere between Indy and Dayton. Concerning temps today Les and you my thoughts on this in the winter and that is seasonal cold that moves in here almost always leads to models not understanding how we are in this valley and the clouds take forever to move out. Local met's are getting better at this in forecasting but we have been on this for over 20 years or in my case closer to 50 years lol

Yeah, we've been at it together for a long time! I'm still hanging at 32 degrees which was my overnight low. CVG dropped to 31 if I recall. Mid to upper 30s is a good call for temps today as long as the sun doesn't come out for a couple of hours. If it does then 40+ easily. Personally, I am hoping the clouds hold.

[tpweather]

Agreed Tim... we are seeing a partial phase with this system. 12Z NAM is a bit too warm for Cincy on south for much accum so that 1-2" zone is just North and West of the Metro area on this particular run.

Les even seeing a little banding northwest of here. That is a place if this run of the model is correct where 3-4 inches could fall somewhere between Indy and Dayton. Concerning temps today Les and you my thoughts on this in the winter and that is seasonal cold that moves in here almost always leads to models not understanding how we are in this valley and the clouds take forever to move out. Local met's are getting better at this in forecasting but we have been on this for over 20 years or in my case closer to 50 years lol

Yeah, we've been at it together for a long time! I'm still hanging at 32 degrees which was my overnight low. CVG dropped to 31 if I recall. Mid to upper 30s is a good call for temps today as long as the sun doesn't come out for a couple of hours. If it does then 40+ easily. Personally, I am hoping the clouds hold.

I agree Les and just a few hours of sun would raise the ground temp by a few degrees.

[tron777]

Agreed Tim... we are seeing a partial phase with this system. 12Z NAM is a bit too warm for Cincy on south for much accum so that 1-2" zone is just North and West of the Metro area on this particular run.

Les even seeing a little banding northwest of here. That is a place if this run of the model is correct where 3-4 inches could fall somewhere between Indy and Dayton. Concerning temps today Les and you my thoughts on this in the winter and that is seasonal cold that moves in here almost always leads to models not understanding how we are in this valley and the clouds take forever to move out. Local met's are getting better at this in forecasting but we have been on this for over 20 years or in my case closer to 50 years lol

Yeah, we've been at it together for a long time! I'm still hanging at 32 degrees which was my overnight low. CVG dropped to 31 if I recall. Mid to upper 30s is a good call for temps today as long as the sun doesn't come out for a couple of hours. If it does then 40+ easily. Personally, I am hoping the clouds hold.

I agree Les and just a few hours of sun would raise the ground temp by a few degrees.

Exactly! We are in great agreement thus far with this system. You always get some solar insolation even through the clouds. The UV rays always can make it thru but it's still better then getting full on sun. Noticed also that the dewpoint is at 25 (here and at CVG) which isn't far off from the temp of 32 so you know the low levels are saturated so that's the inversion I talked about (as well as the boys) So despite high pressure building in to keep us dry today, it is going to be tough to break up the clouds especially for folks north of the River since they are further away from the incoming high which eventually will move over KY.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM has that mixing line right there on top of CVG Land (on the KY side) so we are right there locally for the Metro. It'll be a nowcast IMO but we are right on the edge between accumulating snow and seeing very little. This is an absolute nail biter. I am highly confident on 1-2" for sure north and west of Metro Cincy. A much tougher call for the Metro itself. If dynamic cooling wins out, we're golden! That's pretty much what we need to see with this system down here.

[tpweather]

12Z RGEM has that mixing line right there on top of CVG Land (on the KY side) so we are right there locally for the Metro. It'll be a nowcast IMO but we are right on the edge between accumulating snow and seeing very little. This is an absolute nail biter. I am highly confident on 1-2" for sure north and west of Metro Cincy. A much tougher call for the Metro itself. If dynamic cooling wins out, we're golden! That's pretty much what we need to see with this system down here.

Exactly Les and the old risk and reward. I believe there as an old nfl show or something that was too close to call.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM has that mixing line right there on top of CVG Land (on the KY side) so we are right there locally for the Metro. It'll be a nowcast IMO but we are right on the edge between accumulating snow and seeing very little. This is an absolute nail biter. I am highly confident on 1-2" for sure north and west of Metro Cincy. A much tougher call for the Metro itself. If dynamic cooling wins out, we're golden! That's pretty much what we need to see with this system down here.

Exactly Les and the old risk and reward. I believe there as an old nfl show or something that was too close to call.

I remember when the NFL used to do those commercials (was sponsored by IBM back in the day) and it was "You make the call" where they showed a certain play and then you had the opportunity to guess how the refs were going to call it. We'd make better refs that what they have out there today. I swear, instant replay a lot of times causes these refs to overturn their original call which most of the time is just foolish. But anyway... it is the ole high risk, high reward set up and we'll have to wait and see how it all unfolds for us.

[tpweather]

12Z RGEM has that mixing line right there on top of CVG Land (on the KY side) so we are right there locally for the Metro. It'll be a nowcast IMO but we are right on the edge between accumulating snow and seeing very little. This is an absolute nail biter. I am highly confident on 1-2" for sure north and west of Metro Cincy. A much tougher call for the Metro itself. If dynamic cooling wins out, we're golden! That's pretty much what we need to see with this system down here.

Exactly Les and the old risk and reward. I believe there as an old nfl show or something that was too close to call.

I remember when the NFL used to do those commercials (was sponsored by IBM back in the day) and it was "You make the call" where they showed a certain play and then you had the opportunity to guess how the refs were going to call it. We'd make better refs that what they have out there today. I swear, instant replay a lot of times causes these refs to overturn their original call which most of the time is just foolish. But anyway... it is the ole high risk, high reward set up and we'll have to wait and see how it all unfolds for us.

My problem with the refs and not their fault by why are 60 year men trying to keep up the pace of men in their 20's and 30's playing a fast game. I know we have an age limit on airline pilots so we should have one on NFL refs. Yes I know they get in correct positions but sorry a 60 year old man does not have the speed,eye sight of a 40 year old. How do I know this is because I am living it lol

[MJSun]

Hoping to beat the usual drizzle issue for the Metro and have a nice surprise!

[tpweather]

Hoping to beat the usual drizzle issue for the Metro and have a nice surprise!

Mollie hopefully we can keep the precip rate up for several hours. Even if we are in the snow band once the precip goes lighter then we tend to end up as drizzle. We see this even with the bigger systems. Going to be a close call to say the least and ends up being a nowcast

[airwolf76]

12Z RGEM has that mixing line right there on top of CVG Land (on the KY side) so we are right there locally for the Metro. It'll be a nowcast IMO but we are right on the edge between accumulating snow and seeing very little. This is an absolute nail biter. I am highly confident on 1-2" for sure north and west of Metro Cincy. A much tougher call for the Metro itself. If dynamic cooling wins out, we're golden! That's pretty much what we need to see with this system down here.

Exactly Les and the old risk and reward. I believe there as an old nfl show or something that was too close to call.

I remember when the NFL used to do those commercials (was sponsored by IBM back in the day) and it was "You make the call" where they showed a certain play and then you had the opportunity to guess how the refs were going to call it. We'd make better refs that what they have out there today. I swear, instant replay a lot of times causes these refs to overturn their original call which most of the time is just foolish. But anyway... it is the ole high risk, high reward set up and we'll have to wait and see how it all unfolds for us.

My problem with the refs and not their fault by why are 60 year men trying to keep up the pace of men in their 20's and 30's playing a fast game. I know we have an age limit on airline pilots so we should have one on NFL refs. Yes I know they get in correct positions but sorry a 60 year old man does not have the speed,eye sight of a 40 year old. How do I know this is because I am living it lol

60 is not that old i think they do ok for the most part keeping up. those refs train and condition quite a bit they are not couch potatoes

[airwolf76]

concerning this storm . atleast for my area i am expecting maybe an inch if things go right but temps are marginal and warm surface, is suppose to start in the afternoon. i think for the most part this will be white rain but will report back later on it

[tpweather]

12Z RGEM has that mixing line right there on top of CVG Land (on the KY side) so we are right there locally for the Metro. It'll be a nowcast IMO but we are right on the edge between accumulating snow and seeing very little. This is an absolute nail biter. I am highly confident on 1-2" for sure north and west of Metro Cincy. A much tougher call for the Metro itself. If dynamic cooling wins out, we're golden! That's pretty much what we need to see with this system down here.

Exactly Les and the old risk and reward. I believe there as an old nfl show or something that was too close to call.

I remember when the NFL used to do those commercials (was sponsored by IBM back in the day) and it was "You make the call" where they showed a certain play and then you had the opportunity to guess how the refs were going to call it. We'd make better refs that what they have out there today. I swear, instant replay a lot of times causes these refs to overturn their original call which most of the time is just foolish. But anyway... it is the ole high risk, high reward set up and we'll have to wait and see how it all unfolds for us.

My problem with the refs and not their fault by why are 60 year men trying to keep up the pace of men in their 20's and 30's playing a fast game. I know we have an age limit on airline pilots so we should have one on NFL refs. Yes I know they get in correct positions but sorry a 60 year old man does not have the speed,eye sight of a 40 year old. How do I know this is because I am living it lol

60 is not that old i think they do ok for the most part keeping up. those refs train and condition quite a bit they are not couch potatoes

You must be in great shape for a 60 year old. Not only great shape but eyesight. I considered myself in pretty good shape for a 61 year old man but there is no way I could keep up with nfl players and then the eyesight is another problem.

[tron777]

Hoping to beat the usual drizzle issue for the Metro and have a nice surprise!

Mollie hopefully we can keep the precip rate up for several hours. Even if we are in the snow band once the precip goes lighter then we tend to end up as drizzle. We see this even with the bigger systems. Going to be a close call to say the least and ends up being a nowcast

Totally agree...

[tron777]

12Z GFS came in juicer with 0.25" of precip to work with at CVG. We are right on the fence as we've already discussed.