January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

At least we get a snow showery next Thursday. Euro shows an interesting overrunning event too late in the run. Too bad the boundary is well to the north. That would be a fun set up if it were say over I-64 instead of US 30.

[tron777]

For next week's system, the 12Z EPS Mean has the low tracking thru KY just a hair SE of us, on up towards extreme NE Ohio. Snow to rain to snow showers is looking like a likely solution so far.

[Bgoney]

At least we get a snow showery next Thursday. Euro shows an interesting overrunning event too late in the run. Too bad the boundary is well to the north. That would be a fun set up if it were say over I-64 instead of US 30.

Talked about it yesterday how I wasn't sure about the last 3 days of the month air mass wise whether it would be warmer or colder than our seasonal spell, mods have been going back and forth with a brief cold shot for then , 12z EU goes slightly above normal while the GFS goes cold , albeit has trended warmer from a couple runs ago

[tron777]

At least we get a snow showery next Thursday. Euro shows an interesting overrunning event too late in the run. Too bad the boundary is well to the north. That would be a fun set up if it were say over I-64 instead of US 30.

Talked about it yesterday how I wasn't sure about the last 3 days of the month air mass wise whether it would be warmer or colder than our seasonal spell, mods have been going back and forth with a brief cold shot for then , 12z EU goes slightly above normal while the GFS goes cold , albeit has trended warmer from a couple runs ago

Yeah, it's just a tough set up anyway you slice it. We just can't seem to buy a decent high pressure system in the right spot to even keep marginally cold air in place. La Nina and the SE Ridging is great for the Midwest, Lakes, but can be a pain in the ass for us down here.

[Bgoney]

For next week's system, the 12Z EPS Mean has the low tracking thru KY just a hair SE of us, on up towards extreme NE Ohio. Snow to rain to snow showers is looking like a likely solution so far.

Way I see it atm looking at that, there are two clusters fighting for a track . One track cluster is in west tenn/Ky to eastern KY. The other track cluster is Sw Indiana/KY to near cincy. So it'll be interesting to see next run which one is favored.

[tron777]

For next week's system, the 12Z EPS Mean has the low tracking thru KY just a hair SE of us, on up towards extreme NE Ohio. Snow to rain to snow showers is looking like a likely solution so far.

Way I see it atm looking at that, there are two clusters fighting for a track . One track cluster is in west tenn/Ky to eastern KY. The other track cluster is Sw Indiana/KY to near cincy. So it'll be interesting to see next run which one is favored.

This coming Sunday's system is the table setter for the Wed one for next week. Unfortunately, since Sunday's system isn't as strong as once modeled, the heights are higher so this thing is able to cut more for Wed. I think had this Sunday's system been a little stronger, the heights for Wed's storm would have been a little lower. That was back when we saw the Euro with the Apps Runner idea for a couple of runs. I could be wrong, just kind of how I am interpreting it.

[tron777]

18Z HRRR looks decent for a Sunday thumping of snow especially for the Tri-state. Too bad that model has not performed the best this winter. Who knows, maybe the blind squirrel will find that nut?

[Bgoney]

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[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and been busy today so have not looked at a model except earlier today. Will go over everything in the next hour or so and see how things are shaping up. From yesterday it look like a couple of close calls but I really thought by Saturday the models would come into agreement. Back later this afternoon

[tron777]

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Excellent illustration to your above post!

[Bgoney]

Comparing the GEFs Zonal wind chart of the PV I posted a day or two ago to today's is noticeably less dramatic of winds slowing towards the end of month/beginning of Feb.

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[tron777]

18Z NAM wasn't quite as nice for Sunday as the 12Z but still gives most folks some snowfall before going over to light rain / drizzle from Cincy on south. Still believe 1-2" of slushy snow could fall esp for I-70 posters as long as that weak solution doesn't materialize ala the 12Z GFS. Again, precip rate matters and we need it to be heavy to stay snow as long as we can, esp in CVG Land.

[tron777]

Comparing the GEFs Zonal wind chart of the PV I posted a day or two ago to today's is noticeably less dramatic of winds slowing towards the end of month/beginning of Feb.

It's too bad the Univ of Berlin's site folded a year or two ago. I used to love going there to look at the Euro's PV forecasts.

[tron777]

The latest thinking from the boys for Sunday:

A large area of low pressure will be traveling toward the area
from the southwest on Saturday night. A broad swath of moisture
advection and weak isentropic lift ahead of this low will begin
to impact the Ohio Valley. Snow will be possible after
midnight, with rain also possible in far southwestern sites.
Lows are forecast to range from the mid 20s east to around 30
west.

Synoptically, a large troughing pattern progresses eastward out of
the Great Plains into the Ohio Valley region. At the surface, a
weak/ poorly organized low pressure system moves northeast out of
the OK panhandle region, moves through the Tennessee Valley area,
and off to the northeast. The northern edge of this system will
cause some impacts for our area near the end of the weekend.

12Z deterministic runs have trended a bit cooler and forecast
soundings indicate that the entire column will remain below freezing
north of the Ohio River with decent saturation through the DGZ, so
would expect to see primary precipitation type to be snow for these
areas. Along and south of the Ohio River, surface/ low level
temperatures may rise enough to see more of a mixed precipitation
scenario. Right now, probabilistic winter precipitation guidance has
40-50% probs of snow accumulating more than 1 inch for areas north
of I-70. Should note that the NBM puts freezing rain in the grids,
but there currently isn`t a strong signal for this in soundings, so
have yanked it. However, this will be something to watch based on
track of low/ as we get closer

[Bgoney]

Comparing the GEFs Zonal wind chart of the PV I posted a day or two ago to today's is noticeably less dramatic of winds slowing towards the end of month/beginning of Feb.

It's too bad the Univ of Berlin's site folded a year or two ago. I used to love going there to look at the Euro's PV forecasts.

Yea , some stuff for the EU I'd like to compare with is hard to find unless you fork out the dough . But when you're the best you can charge people for it. Complete opposite for GFS , they cant give out enough free info .

[tron777]

18Z RGEM is decent for Sunday. Could see a slushy inch or two for Cincy and 2-3" for I-70 Crew on this model run.

If I had to come up with an actual forecast for Sunday, I'd probably go with a covering possible in our southern and SE counties (as long as precip rate is heavy otherwise it's a light, drizzly cold rain), a slushy inch or so for the Metro and up to 2" for the I-70 Crew. That's a pretty fair assessment IMO.

[tron777]

Comparing the GEFs Zonal wind chart of the PV I posted a day or two ago to today's is noticeably less dramatic of winds slowing towards the end of month/beginning of Feb.

It's too bad the Univ of Berlin's site folded a year or two ago. I used to love going there to look at the Euro's PV forecasts.

Yea , some stuff for the EU I'd like to compare with is hard to find unless you fork out the dough . But when you're the best you can charge people for it. Complete opposite for GFS , they cant give out enough free info .

Agreed! It's like how the Bengals used to be. You couldn't give tickets away back in the 90s. But now that they are playing much, much better, it's big bucks!

[tron777]

18Z 3KM NAM is much colder for Sunday then the 12KM NAM (regular NAM). Nice band of snow for the I-71 corridor too. Most AV posters would see 1-2" on grassy areas, car tops, etc if this panned out. Total QPF in excess of 0.30" I am using snow depth maps since temps are marginal. Remember, the ratio will be much lower then your normal 10:1 and even the Kuchera maps will also be too high.

[tron777]

18Z GFS looks a little better then 12z for Sunday. We are on the fence though in CVG Land. I think what we are seeing on some of the mesoscale models and short term models is the precip rate is heavier so better snow chances versus seeing an all rain event. Since the GFS is a global model, like the CMC and Euro, they sometimes cannot see those kinds of details.

[tron777]

18Z GFS for next week's storm is SE of the 12Z run so we get a front end thump of snow, then rain, then snow on the backside.

[tpweather]

18Z GFS looks a little better then 12z for Sunday. We are on the fence though in CVG Land. I think what we are seeing on some of the mesoscale models and short term models is the precip rate is heavier so better snow chances versus seeing an all rain event. Since the GFS is a global model, like the CMC and Euro, they sometimes cannot see those kinds of details.

Good Evening Les and finally went over the models and see if there is anything that stands out for the first system. No doubt it looks like we will be near the rain/snow line though I expect most folks to start out as snow and then we see where that line sets up. Since we don't have a big push of warm air once the line gets going it will probably stay there most of the time. I can see a 1-2 inch snow for many folks but if you are in the area that switches over it will be gone by noon or so. The nam when I looked at it earlier today seemed to be going that way and it makes sense.

[tpweather]

Concerning the system next week and it looks like the system is about 6 hours slower getting itself going compared to 24 hours ago. Problem is we don't have true arctic air in place which always makes it somewhat harder to get snow in here but there is cold air to the north and it will no doubt flow in here on the backside of the low. When does the storm get itself together and starts to get stronger will be a huge factor in how much snow we get. Still believe front end snow and back end snow with this system but that may add up to an 1 inch or so. Does the system really get going before the Mississippi River or after it passes the Mississippi River. The longer it takes while moving east the better shot we have this system staying south of us. If not it will head more north towards western Ky,eastern Missouri somewhere in that area and then head northeast which means we are in the warm sector for much of the system. This is not the biggest push of warm air but enough to be sitting at 38 and rain. Going to give it another day for the mid-week system before I feel confident of the track.

[tron777]

18Z GFS looks a little better then 12z for Sunday. We are on the fence though in CVG Land. I think what we are seeing on some of the mesoscale models and short term models is the precip rate is heavier so better snow chances versus seeing an all rain event. Since the GFS is a global model, like the CMC and Euro, they sometimes cannot see those kinds of details.

Good Evening Les and finally went over the models and see if there is anything that stands out for the first system. No doubt it looks like we will be near the rain/snow line though I expect most folks to start out as snow and then we see where that line sets up. Since we don't have a big push of warm air once the line gets going it will probably stay there most of the time. I can see a 1-2 inch snow for many folks but if you are in the area that switches over it will be gone by noon or so. The nam when I looked at it earlier today seemed to be going that way and it makes sense.

Hey Tim! I'm ready to talk weather for a while this evening and if the precip rate is heavy enough, then we may see a situation where it is mainly snow then as it lightens up, you go over to a light drizzle or something to that effect. Either way as I've been saying with marginal temps, we need heavy precip rates to achieve a mainly snow scenario. It'll be a wet snow with those big silver dollar type of flakes should the precip rate that we are seeing on some guidance be heavy enough.

[tron777]

Concerning the system next week and it looks like the system is about 6 hours slower getting itself going compared to 24 hours ago. Problem is we don't have true arctic air in place which always makes it somewhat harder to get snow in here but there is cold air to the north and it will no doubt flow in here on the backside of the low. When does the storm get itself together and starts to get stronger will be a huge factor in how much snow we get. Still believe front end snow and back end snow with this system but that may add up to an 1 inch or so. Does the system really get going before the Mississippi River or after it passes the Mississippi River. The longer it takes while moving east the better shot we have this system staying south of us. If not it will head more north towards western Ky,eastern Missouri somewhere in that area and then head northeast which means we are in the warm sector for much of the system. This is not the biggest push of warm air but enough to be sitting at 38 and rain. Going to give it another day for the mid-week system before I feel confident of the track.

Great post here! That is the key Tim. The longer it takes to get going the better as you said. That's really all it is with regards to how this thing will track.

[tpweather]

18Z GFS looks a little better then 12z for Sunday. We are on the fence though in CVG Land. I think what we are seeing on some of the mesoscale models and short term models is the precip rate is heavier so better snow chances versus seeing an all rain event. Since the GFS is a global model, like the CMC and Euro, they sometimes cannot see those kinds of details.

Good Evening Les and finally went over the models and see if there is anything that stands out for the first system. No doubt it looks like we will be near the rain/snow line though I expect most folks to start out as snow and then we see where that line sets up. Since we don't have a big push of warm air once the line gets going it will probably stay there most of the time. I can see a 1-2 inch snow for many folks but if you are in the area that switches over it will be gone by noon or so. The nam when I looked at it earlier today seemed to be going that way and it makes sense.

Hey Tim! I'm ready to talk weather for a while this evening and if the precip rate is heavy enough, then we may see a situation where it is mainly snow then as it lightens up, you go over to a light drizzle or something to that effect. Either way as I've been saying with marginal temps, we need heavy precip rates to achieve a mainly snow scenario. It'll be a wet snow with those big silver dollar type of flakes should the precip rate that we are seeing on some guidance be heavy enough.

Exactly Les and the precip rate is key Sunday morning. I can see where its snowing and then the rate goes down at the end which leads to a lovely drizzle like you mentioned. Being on the fence though imo gives you a better shot of a little higher precip total so you must take a little risk to get a reward.

The mid-week system is still at least a day and maybe 2 before its set in stone. Can we get a decent snow and sure we can but also we could end up with mainly a rain maker with front and back end snow that really is not much to talk about. I do believe no matter what happens a really decent shot of cold air comes in later next week and the weekend and most likely a few clippers should help bring the colder air in. The best pattern we have seen this year so anything will get you excited. Still watching the PV and lets see this how that works out next month for any effects we may get.