January 2023 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Mid 60s in south central KY. Already 53 in Lexington

[tpweather]

Mid 60s in south central KY. Already 53 in Lexington

Nice and warm in southern Kentucky. We will probably stay in the mid 40's this evening but overnight a nice rise and can we hit 60 by 8am. Thursday could end up be very late March like with a sunny sky and very strong winds. Enjoy the warmth as I believe that is the last 50 plus day that we will see in awhile. Going to be interesting to see how cold we get over the next 20 days or so. First a seasonal brand of cold the a stronger shot looks likely but do we rebound for a short period until another shot heads this way. Rainfall well above normal this year and that looks to continue.

[Bgoney]

Mid 60s in south central KY. Already 53 in Lexington

Nice and warm in southern Kentucky. We will probably stay in the mid 40's this evening but overnight a nice rise and can we hit 60 by 8am. Thursday could end up be very late March like with a sunny sky and very strong winds. Enjoy the warmth as I believe that is the last 50 plus day that we will see in awhile. Going to be interesting to see how cold we get over the next 20 days or so. First a seasonal brand of cold the a stronger shot looks likely but do we rebound for a short period until another shot heads this way. Rainfall well above normal this year and that looks to continue.

Crazy to see a slight risk for northern Ohio in mid Jan. Wonder when the last time that's happened?

[tpweather]

Mid 60s in south central KY. Already 53 in Lexington

Nice and warm in southern Kentucky. We will probably stay in the mid 40's this evening but overnight a nice rise and can we hit 60 by 8am. Thursday could end up be very late March like with a sunny sky and very strong winds. Enjoy the warmth as I believe that is the last 50 plus day that we will see in awhile. Going to be interesting to see how cold we get over the next 20 days or so. First a seasonal brand of cold the a stronger shot looks likely but do we rebound for a short period until another shot heads this way. Rainfall well above normal this year and that looks to continue.

Crazy to see a slight risk for northern Ohio in mid Jan. Wonder when the last time that's happened?

Good question. That area in Northern Indiana and northwest Ohio will see this rather often in March and April and really more than we do down here. Certain areas are just in that zone whether it be tornado's, high winds. Even the January sun can make the atmosphere unstable.

[tron777]

NWS in Louisville has issued a wind advisory for their counties for tomorrow ending at 7pm. It wouldn't shock me if ILN did the same.

[tron777]

Temps in KY range from 66 at Bowling Green as of 5pm, to 43 at CVG. Warm front looks to be over SKY South of the Parkways. It'll be thru here tomorrow morning. Then the rain shuts off, the sun comes out and the winds crank up. We'll see on any stronger storms ahead of the front tomorrow. Def will be a nowcast. Best chance is north closer to the low / warm front.

[Bgoney]

Polar Vortex getting a good yoga stretch in these days . Notice toward the last days of the month the blue colors indicating wind reversal at the very top and then down to about 10 hp. Getting it to 30 hp would be huge , and of course further down the column the PV would tear a groin

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Screenshot_20230118-175029_Chrome.jpg

[tpweather]

Polar Vortex getting a good yoga stretch in these days . Notice toward the last days of the month the blue colors indicating wind reversal at the very top and then down to about 10 hp. Getting it to 30 hp would be huge , and of course further down the column the PV would tear a groin

Screenshot_20230118-174905_Chrome.jpg
Screenshot_20230118-175029_Chrome.jpg

Thanks so much for the info Bgoney. Never want to tear a groin but in this case I will gladly take one

[Bgoney]

Polar Vortex getting a good yoga stretch in these days . Notice toward the last days of the month the blue colors indicating wind reversal at the very top and then down to about 10 hp. Getting it to 30 hp would be huge , and of course further down the column the PV would tear a groin

Screenshot_20230118-174905_Chrome.jpg
Screenshot_20230118-175029_Chrome.jpg

Thanks so much for the info Bgoney. Never want to tear a groin but in this case I will gladly take one

Lol, how's that for a meteorological explanation!!! Keeping it simple for me to understand better

[tron777]

18Z GFS is rain for the Tri-state on south. Snow to the north and west of us for this Sunday. Then rain to snow for the bigger system for next week.

[tron777]

Great discussion guys on the PV! It is definitely getting beat up. We will not know the impacts until the second half of Feb or early March due to lag effects,

[tron777]

In the short term, steadier rains are moving in from the West ahead of the warm front. 0.04" IMBY with a current temp of 42. Dew of 39. Those numbers will rise later on tonight and we will be in that 55 to 60 degree range when you wake up tomorrow morning as we've already discussed.

[Bgoney]

Rain moving out of Cvg atm , should see some sun this morning into the afternoon with isolated storms developing. Plenty of shear similar to an early March scenario

floop-hrrr-2023011909.refcmp.us_ov.gif

[tron777]

Good morning all! Rainfall amounts with this first round ranged from 1.5" in the West to 0.50" or less in the East. CVG and myself are in that 0.60-0.70" range. Wind advisory issued from 12pm thru 7pm today for gusts up to 45 mph. Then we watch for scattered severe storms, best chance the further north you go from Cincinnati but the threat isn't zero here either. We'll see how that shakes out.

[Bgoney]

Wording from SPC




OH area this afternoon/evening
In the wake of early morning rainfall, some clearing is expected during the day from IN into OH. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the 40s, surface temperatures warming into the 50s, and cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening low-midlevel lapse rates will result in SBCAPE of 250-500 J/kg across OH this afternoon. Low-topped thunderstorm development is expected in a band near the IN/OH border by early-mid afternoon, along a surface cold front and in advance of a midlevel trough moving from eastern KS/western MO this morning to the OH Valley by this evening. The convection is expected to move quickly eastward across OH this afternoon, with an attendant threat for damaging winds given the steepening lapse rates and potential for downward transport of 50+ kt flow in the lowest 1-2 km. The convective band is expected to gradually weaken with eastern extent late this evening/early tonight into western PA where buoyancy will diminish and a stable layer will persist near the ground.

[Bgoney]

I didn't see it mentioned, but I think hail can be expected in some of the heavier storms with cold air aloft moving in quicker than at surface

[tpweather]

I didn't see it mentioned, but I think hail can be expected in some of the heavier storms with cold air aloft moving in quicker than at surface

Good Morning and not quite 60 at CVG but 58 is rather mild to say the least. I agree about the cold air aloft and hail which really is something we don't see that often seems possible. You see this quite often in the western plains and the reason is you have the cold air move in from the mountains and its the colder air aloft before the surface temps drop and you really get some nice hail storms.

[tron777]

I didn't see it mentioned, but I think hail can be expected in some of the heavier storms with cold air aloft moving in quicker than at surface

Good Morning and not quite 60 at CVG but 58 is rather mild to say the least. I agree about the cold air aloft and hail which really is something we don't see that often seems possible. You see this quite often in the western plains and the reason is you have the cold air move in from the mountains and its the colder air aloft before the surface temps drop and you really get some nice hail storms.

Good morning fellas! Also agree with the hail threat due to steep lapse rates and we should also see low freezing levels as you both have mentioned. Freezing levels are currently running around 11,000 feet across Ohio. We should see that lower as the day wears on. Lapse rates over ILL and Wisc are very steep ahead of the cold front and once the sun does its thing, those will translate into Ohio this afternoon as well.

[tron777]

Looking ahead... After the front passes today, we will see some scattered flurries and snow showers tonight and lingering into Friday as well.

For the next system... We should be able to start the event late Sat night / early Sun morning as snow. The track of the low will determine how fast we go over to rain. The further north you go, the longer you'll see snow. Folks North of Cincy and esp I-70 folks should be able to remain all snow with this system the way it stands right now. Precip intensity will dictate how much can actually stick. For those that can remain all snow, a couple of slushy inches on the grass, car tops, etc is certainly possible. Roads for the most part, especially main roads should be wet with isolated slick spots possible (mainly north). The ground will take a while to cool down thanks to this mild pattern we've been in all week. One other thing to note... the Euro is the weakest model with the low so if that is correct, we will see less moisture but less WAA too so a better chance at seeing some snow versus a lot of rain.

For Tues night and Wed of next week, that system is still a work in progress. Euro still has the Apps track for a mainly snow event for us and a decent amount of it too! CMC / GFS track the low over us so of course, we'll be dealing with precip type issues should that solution be correct. All models show a follow up wave behind that system with a shot of cold air and more snow shower activity next Thurs.

So we've got some wintry weather on the table here guys. We'll just have to continue to monitor the trends in the coming days.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and about to head out for a wonderful walk with these temps. Of course we know the forecast today but how does the future look. We have a system late Saturday and Sunday. Two pieces of energy but can they get together to form a little stronger system. Not sure and even if they combine does not look that strong. The earlier it comes in overnight Saturday the better shot of a round of snow. By Sunday the temps should be mild enough to change the snow to rain. Most likely at this point the best shot of accumulation is north of the Ohio River . No doubt it will be a wet snow and with the ground still rather mild it may not cause many problems on the roads. Will follow this closely over the next few days.

Then a second system later Tuesday and Wednesday and this one looks to be quite a bit stronger. At the moment the CMC is further north and the Euro furthest south. The Gfs had drifted south from yesterday and getting closer to the Euro. Still way too early as we are talking almost 6 days out but at least there is something to talk about dealing with possible winter weather.

[tpweather]

Les we are on the same page over the next week and even posting at the same time.

[cloudy72]

SPC out with an enhanced risk for DAY-CMH corridor for this afternoon.

Rainfall here so far 0.77"

[tron777]

Les we are on the same page over the next week and even posting at the same time.

I hope that means our luck improves in the snow dept then.

[tron777]

SPC out with an enhanced risk for DAY-CMH corridor for this afternoon.

Rainfall here so far 0.77"

Wow! This could get interesting especially for you all around the I-70 Corridor. Already seeing some sunshine now and visible satellite looks good for a few hours worth. That'll only get the wind cranking as the higher winds aloft begin to mix down.

[Bgoney]

Nothing to add to either post above, except EU made a fairly significant shift NW in low track next week , no more of that please. As far as week 4 temp regime 22-28 still like seasonal to below at times depending on low tracks and snow cover if any. I still don't see an arctic air mass entering the OV during these dates. Some upper teens+- for lows a couple days maybe but arctic air should stay to our NW. The last 3 days of the month could go either way , colder/warmer , ensembles are goiback and forth with a further west NPac ridge or a stronger/weaker SEridge , they go hand in hand