January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Couple more EPS next 10 days maps, one showing our wet cutter pattern for next 10 days for OH/Tenn. Valley and the other showing where the anomalis moisture is in the Indian Ocean and where the MJO is headed

Thanks for posting this... outstanding in fact! After I looked at that, I then popped over to the Aussie Site and the MJO as of 1/8 started to make a move back towards 7. Wondering if the convection in the Indian Ocean (which is close to Africa) is a sign of perhaps, the colder MJO phases are coming after all? Still, as we know, the amplitude of the wave is important and of course the atmospheric lag effects too are in play. Still.. I like what I am seeing with regards to that map. MJO modeling this morning is showing a stronger amplitude in Phase 2 (Indian Ocean). CPC Phase 2 Diagrams for Phase 2 during Met. Winter shows coast to coast below avg temps with the Northern Plains only being above avg. Precip wise, above avg for the SW US, OV, and parts of the SE. So that's not a bad look at all for late this month / early Feb. The French Site that I've used before for Phase 2 in a La Nina in January even isn't terrible. -EPO over AK, Canada is cold on into the Plains and Midwest with ridging along the Apps and East Coast. For Feb, it's even better with well below normal temps coming into those same areas and the ridge is even further East located just off the SE Coast which is usually wonderful storm track wise for us.

[tron777]

[Bgoney]

Couple more EPS next 10 days maps, one showing our wet cutter pattern for next 10 days for OH/Tenn. Valley and the other showing where the anomalis moisture is in the Indian Ocean and where the MJO is headed

Thanks for posting this... outstanding in fact! After I looked at that, I then popped over to the Aussie Site and the MJO as of 1/8 started to make a move back towards 7. Wondering if the convection in the Indian Ocean (which is close to Africa) is a sign of perhaps, the colder MJO phases are coming after all? Still, as we know, the amplitude of the wave is important and of course the atmospheric lag effects too are in play. Still.. I like what I am seeing with regards to that map. MJO modeling this morning is showing a stronger amplitude in Phase 2 (Indian Ocean). CPC Phase 2 Diagrams for Phase 2 during Met. Winter shows coast to coast below avg temps with the Northern Plains only being above avg. Precip wise, above avg for the SW US, OV, and parts of the SE. So that's not a bad look at all for late this month / early Feb. The French Site that I've used before for Phase 2 in a La Nina in January even isn't terrible. -EPO over AK, Canada is cold on into the Plains and Midwest with ridging along the Apps and East Coast. For Feb, it's even better with well below normal temps coming into those same areas and the ridge is even further East located just off the SE Coast which is usually wonderful storm track wise for us.

No problem Les, have more time in jan/Feb to contribute to the cause. Try to find things that you and Tim or anyone else can expand their thoughts on and you didn't disappoint here.

[tron777]

Couple more EPS next 10 days maps, one showing our wet cutter pattern for next 10 days for OH/Tenn. Valley and the other showing where the anomalis moisture is in the Indian Ocean and where the MJO is headed

Thanks for posting this... outstanding in fact! After I looked at that, I then popped over to the Aussie Site and the MJO as of 1/8 started to make a move back towards 7. Wondering if the convection in the Indian Ocean (which is close to Africa) is a sign of perhaps, the colder MJO phases are coming after all? Still, as we know, the amplitude of the wave is important and of course the atmospheric lag effects too are in play. Still.. I like what I am seeing with regards to that map. MJO modeling this morning is showing a stronger amplitude in Phase 2 (Indian Ocean). CPC Phase 2 Diagrams for Phase 2 during Met. Winter shows coast to coast below avg temps with the Northern Plains only being above avg. Precip wise, above avg for the SW US, OV, and parts of the SE. So that's not a bad look at all for late this month / early Feb. The French Site that I've used before for Phase 2 in a La Nina in January even isn't terrible. -EPO over AK, Canada is cold on into the Plains and Midwest with ridging along the Apps and East Coast. For Feb, it's even better with well below normal temps coming into those same areas and the ridge is even further East located just off the SE Coast which is usually wonderful storm track wise for us.

No problem Les, have more time in jan/Feb to contribute to the cause. Try to find things that you and Tim or anyone else can expand their thoughts on and you didn't disappoint here.

Thanks as always! We've got a great Team Effort on this forum. Now, we just need Mother Nature to throw us a bone to bring it all together.

[tron777]

12Z NAM is very progressive. The low tracks right over us so we get the rain and t-storms then dry slotted with maybe a few flurries on the storm's backside at best. 12Z RGEM isn't quite as fast but even with it's solution, snow showers on Friday with a covering possible.

[winterstormjoe]

Thanks as always! We've got a great Team Effort on this forum. Now, we just need Mother Nature to throw us a bone to bring it all together.

Throw a nice bone to that big dog! We are SO overdue!!

[tron777]

Thanks as always! We've got a great Team Effort on this forum. Now, we just need Mother Nature to throw us a bone to bring it all together.

Throw a nice bone to that big dog! We are SO overdue!!

No doubt Joe! I read you loud and clear. Mother Nature... we are waiting on you!

[winterstormjoe]

Thanks as always! We've got a great Team Effort on this forum. Now, we just need Mother Nature to throw us a bone to bring it all together.

Throw a nice bone to that big dog! We are SO overdue!!

No doubt Joe! I read you loud and clear. Mother Nature... we are waiting on you!

I went to the pre-Bengals game party last Monday at the Banks and ran in to a lot of Bills fans and was asking them about their big snows this winter and they we're showing me pics of the snow over their cars and telling me how one side of Buffalo had like 70 inches and another side only had 3 inches. Of course, I was drooling!

[tron777]

I would have been too Joe! Wow! 12Z GFS tracks the low to our SE but it's still so progressive with the pattern. We only get for CVG 0.05" of QPF on Friday for the snow shower activity. So I like the call of a covering maybe... but really, that looks to be the worst case scenario to me.

[tron777]

12Z Canadian tracks the low right up the River / I-71 Corridor then the snow shower activity for Fri. Most models track the low very close to us but with the clouds / rain not sure if we can get enough CAPE for stronger storms as BG was mentioning in his video today. To me, that threat should stay more towards LOU's CWA versus ours. We shall see but with the progressive pattern, the trough isn't going neutral or negative tilt. It's a positively tilted trough so to me, the speed of this system would also lower any severe risks for us.

[tron777]

The pattern for next week (as you know) is wet, mild, and active with a parade of cutters all lined up in the fast Pacific dominated flow. It is after that (post 20th) that we are watching for changes in the overall pattern as the Pacific firehouse begins to calm down so we can get some ridging out West to start changing up the storm track and for the pattern to become more of a wintry one towards the last week of January.

[tron777]

12z OP GFS shows the retraction of the Pacific Jet with a nice PNA ridge in place by the 22nd. The weekend of the 21/22nd hopefully is the last cutter and we can resume more wintry talk and less rainy talk.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and the afternoon models are coming in like your would expect. Not worried at all about severe weather with this system. A positive tilt and I don't see dew points getting much higher than the low 50's plus plenty of clouds and rain. Still believe .5-1 inch rainfall amounts are likely. In regards to snow and inch or less but it can look impressive at times with snow showers and wind. Weekend very typical January weekend with temps rather close to normal. Next week does look rainy and hopefully this will also be the last week of above normal temps for an extended period.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS is a day or so earlier then the OP, with getting the ridge out West to pop with that last cutter working thru the Lakes.

[tron777]

12z Euro is falling in line pretty well now for the next system. So basically, I think we're in good shape here as to what to expect out of this system. We've all thrown our thoughts out there and we're all basically on the same page. Couple of showers Wed / Wed night with the bulk of the rain Thurs. Maybe some thunder, gusty winds, that sort of thing. Rainfall amounts of at least a 1/2" looks good. We change to snow after midnight for a brief period. No accumulation. Then a break thanks to the dry slot followed by back lash snow showers on Friday. If you can manage a covering on grassy areas / a car topper, then consider it a victory for snow lovers with this system.

[tpweather]

Looks good Les and what happen to the tropical system the gfs showed yesterday lol. I have no ideal what info got put into the model for that to be showing up but of course we knew it was wrong but such a strange run and yes these is a system out in the Atlantic early next week but its moving east not west like the model showed yesterday.

[tron777]

Looks good Les and what happen to the tropical system the gfs showed yesterday lol. I have no ideal what info got put into the model for that to be showing up but of course we knew it was wrong but such a strange run and yes these is a system out in the Atlantic early next week but its moving east not west like the model showed yesterday.

Thanks Tim and I agree... that whacky run from yesterday was probably just some bad data or maybe an error in its mathematical computations. Whatever the reason, we knew it was BS anyway. The GEFS's 2M temps in the extended range are much colder also on today's run, in addition to the nice look at 500 MB. This much more resembles the past several EPS runs we have seen. So we've got 10 more days of tracking cutters then we should have some light at the end of the tunnel here.

[Bgoney]

Looks good Les and what happen to the tropical system the gfs showed yesterday lol. I have no ideal what info got put into the model for that to be showing up but of course we knew it was wrong but such a strange run and yes these is a system out in the Atlantic early next week but its moving east not west like the model showed yesterday.

Thanks Tim and I agree... that whacky run from yesterday was probably just some bad data or maybe an error in its mathematical computations. Whatever the reason, we knew it was BS anyway. The GEFS's 2M temps in the extended range are much colder also on today's run, in addition to the nice look at 500 MB. This much more resembles the past several EPS runs we have seen. So we've got 10 more days of tracking cutters then we should have some light at the end of the tunnel here.

Can you imagine the reaction of the Mets in charge of the GFS upgrade when they saw that almost impossible solution . A priceless meme reaction no doubt . They already knew that tweaks needed to be made but now they're wondering if they'll run out of tweaks

[tron777]

12Z EPS still looking good showing the PNA ridge starting to pop on the 20th with that last Lakes Cutter over the weekend Jan 21st or so. Models really seem to be converging on a time period now for change. The can kicking IMO appears to be over.

[tron777]

Looks good Les and what happen to the tropical system the gfs showed yesterday lol. I have no ideal what info got put into the model for that to be showing up but of course we knew it was wrong but such a strange run and yes these is a system out in the Atlantic early next week but its moving east not west like the model showed yesterday.

Thanks Tim and I agree... that whacky run from yesterday was probably just some bad data or maybe an error in its mathematical computations. Whatever the reason, we knew it was BS anyway. The GEFS's 2M temps in the extended range are much colder also on today's run, in addition to the nice look at 500 MB. This much more resembles the past several EPS runs we have seen. So we've got 10 more days of tracking cutters then we should have some light at the end of the tunnel here.

Can you imagine the reaction of the Mets in charge of the GFS upgrade when they saw that almost impossible solution . A priceless meme reaction no doubt . They already knew that tweaks needed to be made but now they're wondering if they'll run out of tweaks

The people that make these tweaks perhaps are "tweaking" themselves?!?

[tron777]

Where the sun is out, like IMBY, how about the lower 50s right now! For those in Ohio stuck in the clouds... 30s and 40s.

[tpweather]

50 here at the moment with sunshine. I believe the latest Nam is doing a really good job for later this week. We have the surface system passing by of course but I believe its picking up more on the upper system heading southeast. With the upper low heading over the mountains this really is a a time where the mountains can get some decent accumulations. Still believe southeast Ohio and eastern Ky near the mountains have a decent shot of getting 2-4 inches on Friday and of course higher totals in the mountains would not be surprised to see 6 inches plus. For us locally 1 inch seems correct but exactly where the upper system tracks can help or hurt us in that department and just a little too early to make changes either way.

[tron777]

Tim, in addition to the mountains, the Lake Belts in NE Ohio should also cash in with that 2-4"+ range. I know our good friend Jeff (snowbrain) is keeping an eye on it up there in Chardon.

[tpweather]

Tim, in addition to the mountains, the Lake Belts in NE Ohio should also cash in with that 2-4"+ range. I know our good friend Jeff (snowbrain) is keeping an eye on it up there in Chardon.

No doubt Les and maybe even a little more. The energy from the left coast is strong and that is something I always look at when it comes across the country. Of course it usually gets beaten up some over the Rockies but keeping the energy in tack it can explode again in the eastern half of the country. Fun system to watch as there are some dynamics and with a surface low forming in the central plains and an upper system coming in behind it should be fun to track even if we get very little in the way of snow.

[tpweather]

Looking for positives and the NWS in Cincinnati has put us on the HWO for Friday. Less than an inch of snow but something to follow lol.