January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Les when the mjo was last in 5-7 Larry Cosgrove had it phase 2 and 3. So when a met like Larry is stating a different phase of the mjo then I have tons of questions. So using the mjo charts may or may not be reliable. I believe the weather over the past almost 60 days was sometimes lining up with the mjo and other times not at all. So we may be able to say the mjo was not the controlling factor of the weather.

It can get confusing depending on what source of information you use. I don't know what Larry uses. I use the Aussie site for MJO phase diagrams to see where the actual MJO phase is. If you use the data from the CPC, I'm sure if it a different result as an example. A lot of things are that way, including ENSO (La Nina or El Nino - Different data sources calculate the ONI differently). I'm just saying that you're not wrong whatsoever in having a lot of questions. It's very muddy territory here. But I try to say where I get my data from in my posts so at least you know where to go to find out how I came to a certain conclusion (or whatever the topic of the post is). Hope that make sense. At least you know where I am coming from in other words.

[Bgoney]

Les when the mjo was last in 5-7 Larry Cosgrove had it phase 2 and 3. So when a met like Larry is stating a different phase of the mjo then I have tons of questions. So using the mjo charts may or may not be reliable. I believe the weather over the past almost 60 days was sometimes lining up with the mjo and other times not at all. So we may be able to say the mjo was not the controlling factor of the weather.

Yea , there is for sure a lot of improvement needed in the MJO graphical dept. I think they can come up with a much more synchronized real-time map. There is also much to explore in the "lag" department of effects. Some think as soon as it hits phase eight we should be cold and snowy the exact same day. It just doesn't work like that. But in defense of those , it is because many mets present it that way. Speed and magnitude of the MJO , I think , effect lag time of effects, so this is probably why the telley pattern doesn't line up at times with what phase the MJO is in. Anyways, I always look at satellite pics to confirm where it is

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and more and more I believe the next 6 days are going to be very wet. Looks like several rounds of rain in the Ohio Valley. Exactly where the heaviest rains will fall is probably a little to early to say but hopefully its over a wider area because if someone starts to get over 4 inches of rain there will be some concerns for flooding. Even signs of stronger thundershowers or storms Monday and Tuesday and usually but not always this time of year it ends up being a period with some heavy rain and not so much the storms. So the weather is going to get busy but not exactly the kind of excitement we like on this forum.

Btw Les great post above and you made perfect sense about the mjo and 100p/c agree about lag times along with the speed and magnitude of the MJO. My biggest questions is mainly with the met's because I would love to know what info they are actually looking at when saying which phase we are in.

[tron777]

Great post Bgoney especially with regards to using satellite pics. I have not seen any recent changes in MJO graphics or modeling, but the CPC has made graphics changes to their Teleconnection graphics back in Feb and March of this year. You also bring up a fantastic point about the MJO effects lagging depending on what phase it is in. CPC a few years back did add a lagged composites webpage to the MJO line up. I am sure you are aware of all of these things, but for anyone on our forum who isn't, there you go.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... omposites/

[Bgoney]

Great post Bgoney especially with regards to using satellite pics. I have not seen any recent changes in MJO graphics or modeling, but the CPC has made graphics changes to their Teleconnection graphics back in Feb and March of this year. You also bring up a fantastic point about the MJO effects lagging depending on what phase it is in. CPC a few years back did add a lagged composites webpage to the MJO line up. I am sure you are aware of all of these things, but for anyone on our forum who isn't, there you go.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... omposites/

Yes , I'm aware. Reason I didn't mention them , and this is my opinion, they are seriously confusing and unreliable to my pea brain. So , until they come up with something different in that dept I'm staying away from it

[tpweather]

Great insights guys and guess the reason I really brought it up is Larry sometime in the past 30-60 days had it in phase 2 and I saw no mjo graphics showing that and that is where my confusion comes from.

[tron777]

Great post Bgoney especially with regards to using satellite pics. I have not seen any recent changes in MJO graphics or modeling, but the CPC has made graphics changes to their Teleconnection graphics back in Feb and March of this year. You also bring up a fantastic point about the MJO effects lagging depending on what phase it is in. CPC a few years back did add a lagged composites webpage to the MJO line up. I am sure you are aware of all of these things, but for anyone on our forum who isn't, there you go.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... omposites/

Yes , I'm aware. Reason I didn't mention them , and this is my opinion, they are seriously confusing and unreliable to my pea brain. So , until they come up with something different in that dept I'm staying away from it

I'm with you... I don't fully understand all of it either.

[tron777]

Great insights guys and guess the reason I really brought it up is Larry sometime in the past 30-60 days had it in phase 2 and I saw no mjo graphics showing that and that is where my confusion comes from.

Understood Tim. I'm glad we've all had this discussion. I like seeing how different people use the different tools to come up with their own predictions. For the most part, we usually all get to the same result, just with different methods. Nothing wrong with that at all. I like the healthy conversation and discussion that we have on here.

[Bgoney]

Tuesday morning low temps will be in record territory for maximums.

Screenshot_20221229-072402_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

I don't have any changes to make this morning to our ongoing discussions. Euro continues to bang the strong to severe storms drum for Tues the 3rd. Other models show more of a heavy rain threat with some thunder being possible. Locations as close as Western KY continue to be outlined by the SPC so it is still worth watching of course.

In the extended range... still seeing Ensemble guidance by Week 2 in January showing the Aleutian Low pattern with higher heights in AK and Canada with below normal heights over the SE US. I still don't see a +PNA as of yet and I still don't see brutally cold air as of yet. So my thoughts still stand at seeing more seasonal temps during week 2 which is still cold enough for snow should you get a well timed event. It is not a close the blinds period for snow lovers. Right now thru Week 1 in January, yes. That is a close the blinds period. They can be re-opened shortly though.

[Bgoney]

I don't have any changes to make this morning to our ongoing discussions. Euro continues to bang the strong to severe storms drum for Tues the 3rd. Other models show more of a heavy rain threat with some thunder being possible. Locations as close as Western KY continue to be outlined by the SPC so it is still worth watching of course.

In the extended range... still seeing Ensemble guidance by Week 2 in January showing the Aleutian Low pattern with higher heights in AK and Canada with below normal heights over the SE US. I still don't see a +PNA as of yet and I still don't see brutally cold air as of yet. So my thoughts still stand at seeing more seasonal temps during week 2 which is still cold enough for snow should you get a well timed event. It is not a close the blinds period for snow lovers. Right now thru Week 1 in January, yes. That is a close the blinds period. They can be re-opened shortly though.

Looks good to me, Arctic cold is closed for business until further notice

[tpweather]

Tuesday morning low temps will be in record territory for maximums.



Screenshot_20221229-072402_Chrome.jpg

Pretty wild and we have had several of these in November and December and once we finish the month those two months will go down as normal temps but how we got there is wild.

[tron777]

I don't have any changes to make this morning to our ongoing discussions. Euro continues to bang the strong to severe storms drum for Tues the 3rd. Other models show more of a heavy rain threat with some thunder being possible. Locations as close as Western KY continue to be outlined by the SPC so it is still worth watching of course.

In the extended range... still seeing Ensemble guidance by Week 2 in January showing the Aleutian Low pattern with higher heights in AK and Canada with below normal heights over the SE US. I still don't see a +PNA as of yet and I still don't see brutally cold air as of yet. So my thoughts still stand at seeing more seasonal temps during week 2 which is still cold enough for snow should you get a well timed event. It is not a close the blinds period for snow lovers. Right now thru Week 1 in January, yes. That is a close the blinds period. They can be re-opened shortly though.

Looks good to me, Arctic cold is closed for business until further notice

Agreed and unlike the last time, we where could see it coming from a very long lead time, I don't yet have a target date in mind. The target dates I have been posting as you know, is for the change back to seasonal temps in Week 2.

[Bgoney]

I don't have any changes to make this morning to our ongoing discussions. Euro continues to bang the strong to severe storms drum for Tues the 3rd. Other models show more of a heavy rain threat with some thunder being possible. Locations as close as Western KY continue to be outlined by the SPC so it is still worth watching of course.

In the extended range... still seeing Ensemble guidance by Week 2 in January showing the Aleutian Low pattern with higher heights in AK and Canada with below normal heights over the SE US. I still don't see a +PNA as of yet and I still don't see brutally cold air as of yet. So my thoughts still stand at seeing more seasonal temps during week 2 which is still cold enough for snow should you get a well timed event. It is not a close the blinds period for snow lovers. Right now thru Week 1 in January, yes. That is a close the blinds period. They can be re-opened shortly though.

Looks good to me, Arctic cold is closed for business until further notice

Agreed and unlike the last time, we where could see it coming from a very long lead time, I don't yet have a target date in mind. The target dates I have been posting as you know, is for the change back to seasonal temps in Week 2.

Yep, it was clear then what was going to trigger the surge of Arctic cold well into the lower 48. This go round , no clear signal on how that happens , atm

[tron777]

I don't have any changes to make this morning to our ongoing discussions. Euro continues to bang the strong to severe storms drum for Tues the 3rd. Other models show more of a heavy rain threat with some thunder being possible. Locations as close as Western KY continue to be outlined by the SPC so it is still worth watching of course.

In the extended range... still seeing Ensemble guidance by Week 2 in January showing the Aleutian Low pattern with higher heights in AK and Canada with below normal heights over the SE US. I still don't see a +PNA as of yet and I still don't see brutally cold air as of yet. So my thoughts still stand at seeing more seasonal temps during week 2 which is still cold enough for snow should you get a well timed event. It is not a close the blinds period for snow lovers. Right now thru Week 1 in January, yes. That is a close the blinds period. They can be re-opened shortly though.

Looks good to me, Arctic cold is closed for business until further notice

Agreed and unlike the last time, we where could see it coming from a very long lead time, I don't yet have a target date in mind. The target dates I have been posting as you know, is for the change back to seasonal temps in Week 2.

Yep, it was clear then what was going to trigger the surge of Arctic cold well into the lower 48. This go round , no clear signal on how that happens , atm

There is some ridging trying to poke back into AK and over Canada as well. Not sure about the NAO. That is not very clear right now and the same goes with the MJO's behavior. What I am banking on at the very least is the Pacific Jet to retract which allows the Western US trough to retrograde to the Aleutians which would force more seasonal temps over us instead of the mega torch we are currently going to be seeing. It's the best I've got for snow lovers at this point.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and really nothing changing long term. I believe next Tuesday and Wednesday has a good chance of seeing some heavy rains. Severe weather and I always go low this time of year as 90p/c of the time it just ends up with heavy rain which in itself can become a severe issue for some folks. Keeping track of the cold build up and really so far nothing that is unexpected in the polar regions but again we just started the process. What I am seeing is much of northern and central Canada may stay colder than normal and the reason is all the heavy snow it had leading up to this period. Still looking at the 7-9th for a much better shot at winter weather and again I believe the PNA will be positive enough to bring some decent Canadian cold south and east. Though its only Canadian cold there is plenty of it and though we lose a lot of the snow cover there will be fresh snows in the northern plains and upper mid-west leading up to this period. I do believe the AO may be heading negative next week as well but nothing like we saw the last few weeks. The NAO at the moment looks to stay positive but there are signs this heads towards neutral in the second week of January. So I agree no true polar air in the next few weeks but the Canadian cold is plenty cold and has been since fall should be enough to help in getting us some winter like winter the 2nd and 3rd weeks of January. Then we look and see will the PV be tested and again we need to see the strength but also the shape of how it develops in the next week.

[Bgoney]

PV Update: Near record


The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 56.1 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 1.6 m/s 2001
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 62.8 m/s 1988

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! I still believe that we need to watch the 1/7-10th period as we've discussed. A well timed PNA spike would be nice like what we saw with the Christmas Blizzard. We'll see... plenty of time to keep that one eye open look for sure.

[tpweather]

Good morning Tim! I still believe that we need to watch the 1/7-10th period as we've discussed. A well timed PNA spike would be nice like what we saw with the Christmas Blizzard. We'll see... plenty of time to keep that one eye open look for sure.

We are on the same page Les. We have all the tellies and are great tools to use but I still look at what is happening on the ground. Alaska is one area we watch and though we are really mild over the next week they are above normal as well and no signs of any really arctic air taking hold. This is key and if I saw where they were heading to a below normal pattern in terms of temps I would be more concerned for us getting cold but this season has been very mild for them though they had a few colder spells but for them they probably have the shorts out this winter lol.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! I still believe that we need to watch the 1/7-10th period as we've discussed. A well timed PNA spike would be nice like what we saw with the Christmas Blizzard. We'll see... plenty of time to keep that one eye open look for sure.

We are on the same page Les. We have all the tellies and are great tools to use but I still look at what is happening on the ground. Alaska is one area we watch and though we are really mild over the next week they are above normal as well and no signs of any really arctic air taking hold. This is key and if I saw where they were heading to a below normal pattern in terms of temps I would be more concerned for us getting cold but this season has been very mild for them though they had a few colder spells but for them they probably have the shorts out this winter lol.

Totally agree Tim! NWS Fairbanks is talking about BBQ Weather for Fairbanks for NYE with low temps in the single digits to -10 in outlying areas and highs either side of zero. That is above normal for sure even if that seems cold to us. Climate norms for 12/31 at Fairbanks is a high of 2 above zero and a low of -15.

[tron777]

Barrow's normals right now are -5 / -17. They are seasonal right now but look to climb towards zero for highs by Day 7 as the ridging starts to build back in (assuming Ensemble guidance is right).

[tpweather]

Barrow's normals right now are -5 / -17. They are seasonal right now but look to climb towards zero for highs by Day 7 as the ridging starts to build back in (assuming Ensemble guidance is right).

That is key Les. If this pans out I love the chances for winter weather returning in the the period we have been talking about. Looking at western Russia and Scand countries and nothing really cold there as well in the forecast. Really nice info from Bgoney about the PV. My question would be does a super strong PV translate into a brutal cold in the arctic. I have no idea because even a normal PV can cause the arctic regions to get very cold and a weak one usually allows cold air to flow into the lower latitudes. The PV so far have been elongated so far this season and maybe this time with the strength it becomes lets say more circular and harder to disrupt. Many question I wish the answers were more clear and since that is not the case I am going with the trends of the season so far.

[tron777]

Barrow's normals right now are -5 / -17. They are seasonal right now but look to climb towards zero for highs by Day 7 as the ridging starts to build back in (assuming Ensemble guidance is right).

That is key Les. If this pans out I love the chances for winter weather returning in the the period we have been talking about. Looking at western Russia and Scand countries and nothing really cold there as well in the forecast. Really nice info from Bgoney about the PV. My question would be does a super strong PV translate into a brutal cold in the arctic. I have no idea because even a normal PV can cause the arctic regions to get very cold and a weak one usually allows cold air to flow into the lower latitudes. The PV so far have been elongated so far this season and maybe this time with the strength it becomes lets say more circular and harder to disrupt. Many question I wish the answers were more clear and since that is not the case I am going with the trends of the season so far.

I feel the same way, Tim. We have seen a tendency for blocking really since Sept. We've had warm up's last a couple of weeks, followed by a week long to 10 day cold snap. Wash, rinse, and repeat. That really has been the trends since Autumn. So if the trend is our friend, we ought to see better chances for snow returning about when we think it will, or very shortly thereafter if we are rushing things.

[tron777]

For the Jan 3rd rain / t-storm event, the 12Z GFS has trended towards the Euro with a stronger/ further West low track. This lowers the heavy rain threat and up's the t-storm threat. Still think the severe threat stays to our SW, but a strong storm cannot be ruled out from Cincy and points SW at this time, IMO. Rainfall amounts at CVG is only 0.53"

Then for the follow up wave on the 4th, it's a colder look but a weaker wave so only a rain shower / snow shower is possible at this time. A better influx of cold air behind that system for the 5th as a new system comes into central CA. Would like to see it be S CA but it's better then Northern CA on northward for an entry point.

A better Pacific pattern on the 12Z GFS run where ridging begins to come back (very tall too! over AK and Western Canada). So the -EPO is returning. Not a +PNA though, it's still negative. But it does force the storm track further south which is a step in the right direction for the 7-10th period. Unfortunately, there's just a little too much ridging out in front of the shortwave on the 12Z GFS run but it is a step in the right direction vs 6Z (which was better then the 0Z lol). So we'll see. The storm signal is there, just don't know what form it will take. A cutter is absolutely on the table just as an Apps Runner or something in between the two. Way too early yet. But I love looking at the early on possibilities.

[tron777]

12Z Canadian shows a lot of moving parts as we approach Day 10. An unphased weak system is the end result. Just another in an array of solutions for my target period of a storm.