December 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

I'm up to 14!

[snowbo]

Buffalo has set a record by being in blizzard conditions for 36 straight hours with more to come.

[tron777]

Buffalo has set a record by being in blizzard conditions for 36 straight hours with more to come.

43" so far - event total reported at KBUF WOW! 1-2 feet additionally is expected.

[tron777]

Good morning folks and a Merry Christmas to you all once again. I hope Santa was good to you as he was for me. Got some clothes that I needed, new shoes, good things to eat, some fireworks equipment for my show next year, a killer new grill scraper / scrubber, some good coffee, a big 32 oz yeti tumbler (I'm ready for New Year's now LOL) All kinds of good stuff!

Back to our weather and the big thaw is coming! That is the big weather story for the rest of December which beings on Wed. We should see 50s if not 60 degree by New Year's Eve! Rain looks to also return by Fri and esp for NYE so we will be tracking that for you for those with outdoor plans. It won't be cold for outdoor plans but it may be wet unfortunately.

[snowbo]

Merry Christmas to the AV family!!

[AddisonJM]

Merry Christmas, everyone. We did it. A white Christmas. Even in a La Nina year.

[Bgoney]

Big time zonal flow for at least the first 7-10 of Jan. due to the blocking ridge going away in the pac, storms will be crashing into the west coast and moving into the center of the country with numerous cutter opportunities and warming the rest of lower 48 eventually.

Screenshot_20221225-063954_YouTube.jpg

Screenshot_20221225-064017_YouTube.jpg

[tron777]

Big time zonal flow for at least the first 7-10 of Jan. due to the blocking ridge going away in the pac, storms will be crashing into the west coast and moving into the center of the country with numerous cutter opportunities and warming the rest of lower 48 eventually.

I agree! So far, I am seeing 3 opportunities for rainfall. The first is coming on Friday with a few showers with the vast majority on NYE ending early NYD. Once we get the January thread rolling, we'll track 2 more then we'll see about the potential change back to colder conditions during Week 2.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and after the clipper on Monday we start with a slow warm up Tuesday and Wednesday and the reason I say slow at first is models have a hard time with temps when much of that is melting snow. Though the depth of the snow is not great you have ice as well and not even sure models have that in their calculation. Once we get to Thursday and having much of the snow and ice melting then a quicker warm up will happen. Maybe even get a few showers as well but looks like next weekend could be rather wet but mild. Then we stay mild during the 1st week of January then we need to start looking at what may happen for the remainder of the month.

[tron777]

53% of the country had a White Christmas! That sure is something! Stupid warm up incoming...

WhiteChristmaSnowCover.jpg

[tpweather]

I agree Les about the warm up but we always need that cold to reload and you can see places like Barrow,Alaska above the arctic circle getting cold and many places across the Northern Hemisphere above the arctic circle getting back to a normal brand of cold for them. Even though much of the USA over the next 10 days except the northern plains and mountains out west will be snow free that will start to pick up more starting the week of January 2nd and work its way slowly south and east. We would love to see new snow fall that week to our northwest and hopefully the pattern will switch back to one that we can get more action. My biggest surprise was the quick change to warmth and that is why I had to change my forecast.

[tron777]

I hope Santa was good to you Tim! I posted somewhere what I got earlier today. Anyway... I am thinking that we see a nice system somewhere around the 9th or 10th of January to usher in the next round of cold. Whether we get wintry weather or if it's another cutter then we drop remains to be seen. I like that timing for the change at this time.

Ensemble Guidance is showing that timing for the change. We get an Aleutian Low which pumps up the -EPO / -AO - NAO again. PNA IMO will not be positive but we'll have shortwaves coming into S CALI riding underneath the block. Should be another interesting period if the Ensembles are correct. I am not expecting severe cold at this time, like what we just had. but seasonal cold. It is the coldest time of the year for us so avg to slight below avg still means snow in mid January.

Looks like the MJO has come out of hiding so that's why we got the rapid warm up. It's in Phase 5 by now so that's a pretty warm pattern / wet too. Some guidance shows Phase 7 by 9-10th of January and that's usually a weak SE ridge and a gradient like temperature pattern. I like that for big storms to be honest, as long as we're on the correct side of the gradient.

[tpweather]

Les I had a wonderful Christmas as usual. Very lucky to say the least. I believe your post is dead on and getting into a phase 7 no doubt helps out the central USA and hopefully it will continue on to the better phases for us which are 8-2 in January. No doubt more polar air will be around but will be on the correct side of the globe and its just a little too early for that prediction. This latest cold spell showed up early and models were about a week too fast I agree hard to get another one that cold but just give us temps that are ranging 5-15 below for mid-January and I will take my chances on snow.

[tron777]

Les I had a wonderful Christmas as usual. Very lucky to say the least. I believe your post is dead on and getting into a phase 7 no doubts helps out the central USA and hopefully it will continue on to the better phases for us which are 8-2 in January. No doubt more polar air will be around but will be on the correct side of the globe and its just a little too early for that prediction. This latest cold spell showed up early and models were about a week too fast I agree hard to get another one that cold but just give us temps that are ranging 5-15 below for mid-January and I will take my chances on snow.

Exactly. Normal high by then is in the upper 30s with lows in the lower 20s. 5 degrees to 7 below avg is perfect. Is the Nina starting to weaken? If it is, we maybe in for a very nice back half of winter. The very positive SOI kind of bothers me still so if it is weakening, it will be a slow process IMO.

Hopefully this is a trend.

ssta_c.gif

[tron777]

A wonderful and educational article here about the PV, SSW and its possible impacts later on should we see this occur.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... europe-fa/

[tpweather]

A wonderful and educational article here about the PV, SSW and its possible impacts later on should we see this occur.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... europe-fa/

This is probably the best write up I have seen on this topic.

[tron777]

A wonderful and educational article here about the PV, SSW and its possible impacts later on should we see this occur.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... europe-fa/

This is probably the best write up I have seen on this topic.

Good morning Tim! I thought it was very well written and explained so that even a dummy like me can understand it.

[tron777]

We should crack freezing tomorrow, the 40s Wed, and the 50s by Thurs. Expecting the best rain chances to come late Friday and esp on Saturday. NYE looks like a very wet day at this time. Rain should wrap up by NYD in the morning. This can all change but the current timing is not good for NYE Parties. Mild yes, dry nope is the current theme. That'll wrap up December!

[Bgoney]

Amazing video out of Buffalo

[tron777]

40.8" at Henderson Harbor, NY off the East End of Lake Ontario as of 6:15am this morning. Went walleye fishing there a couple of times and caught an 11.5 pound monster that is on my wall! What a beautiful place and wonderfully nice people. For Buffalo, 43" even as of Christmas Day morning was the last report I saw. Dunkirk, NY, been walleye fishing there too SW a little ways down the lake from BUF only got 4"! That's the nature of the beast for LES!

[tpweather]

Les having that southwest wind is always brutal for Buffalo in the winter. The direction of the wind is so key in these squalls off the lakes.

[tron777]

Les having that southwest wind is always brutal for Buffalo in the winter. The direction of the wind is so key in these squalls off the lakes.

A lot of the folks in New England, your classic I-95 snow weenies have had an awful start to winter for snow lovers. The Lake Effect zones are absolutely singing a different tune! As are we! Our winter so far is off to a wonderful start and you really couldn't ask for much better so far into our young season.

[tron777]

I'll update our snowfall contest thread later today should the clipper add on anything. But to date at The Big Three sites, everyone is doing well!

CVG - 6.8" seasonal total
Departure of +2.8"
Last year at this time: 0.6"

DAY - 5.4" seasonal total
Departure of +0.8"
Last year at this time: 0.8"

CMH - 5.5" seasonal total
Departure of +0.4"
Last year at this time: 1.1"

[airwolf76]

looks like winter is over the next 2 weeks anyways. i am kind of surprised i thought it would be different this year

[tron777]

looks like winter is over the next 2 weeks anyways. i am kind of surprised i thought it would be different this year

I think it absolutely will be much different.