December 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Good Evening and nice to talk about something besides the upcoming storm. I see where the NWS is trying to warm us rather quickly towards the new year. I believe the warm up is to quick getting in the eastern part of the country and I still have the warming coming in here somewhere in the 9th-11th of January. Big reason will be snow on the ground and if we can get a few clippers or even another system in here before the new year this usually delays milder spells by a week or so in this region. I do believe we get the January Thaw but similar to what the models showed with the current cold spell I believe they are to quick once again and Mother Nature likes to take her time with these pattern changes.

Been seeing a lot of warm talk for January. I really haven't looked far out in time much so I don't want to really comment too much other then the possible clipper early next week.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and nice to talk about something besides the upcoming storm. I see where the NWS is trying to warm us rather quickly towards the new year. I believe the warm up is to quick getting in the eastern part of the country and I still have the warming coming in here somewhere in the 9th-11th of January. Big reason will be snow on the ground and if we can get a few clippers or even another system in here before the new year this usually delays milder spells by a week or so in this region. I do believe we get the January Thaw but similar to what the models showed with the current cold spell I believe they are to quick once again and Mother Nature likes to take her time with these pattern changes.

Been seeing a lot of warm talk for January. I really haven't looked far out in time much so I don't want to really comment too much other then the possible clipper early next week.

Les very similar to November when folks were talking about the cold coming in early December except we were in the mid-Dec camp which ended up correct. I believe we are seeing that exact same thing here and folks just rely to much on couple days of runs which is crazy. The Nao is expected to head towards negative once again and the AO still on the negative side. So it just takes time and yes models see things and I agree a January Thaw is most likely going to happen but I just believe its in the 2-3 week instead of 1st week of January

[winterstormjoe]

Good Evening and nice to talk about something besides the upcoming storm. I see where the NWS is trying to warm us rather quickly towards the new year. I believe the warm up is to quick getting in the eastern part of the country and I still have the warming coming in here somewhere in the 9th-11th of January. Big reason will be snow on the ground and if we can get a few clippers or even another system in here before the new year this usually delays milder spells by a week or so in this region. I do believe we get the January Thaw but similar to what the models showed with the current cold spell I believe they are to quick once again and Mother Nature likes to take her time with these pattern changes.

Been seeing a lot of warm talk for January. I really haven't looked far out in time much so I don't want to really comment too much other then the possible clipper early next week.

Les very similar to November when folks were talking about the cold coming in early December except we were in the mid-Dec camp which ended up correct. I believe we are seeing that exact same thing here and folks just rely to much on couple days of runs which is crazy. The Nao is expected to head towards negative once again and the AO still on the negative side. So it just takes time and yes models see things and I agree a January Thaw is most likely going to happen but I just believe its in the 2-3 week instead of 1st week of January

Hey Tim, GFS is sure going stormy and mainly mild for the end of this month and going into the new year! We have seen this movie before, and I believe after Christmas we'll see models going back in the winter pattern mode for January. Lots of questions to be answered and does the LaNina really start to weaken in January? Does the MJO go through it's warm phases of 4,5,6 and then go towards the colder 7,8 and then make it to 1,2 or does it just creep along near the neutral zone?

[airwolf76]

not sure yet what to think about the end of the year and early January. im having a hard time seeing a blow torch coming like some are claiming . the PNA and NAO do not look bad but we are gonna lose the EPO so im not sure. if i had to take a guess as of now I would say it will probably be an up and down month as far as the cold.

[tron777]

I agree with Charles... great post! The teleconnections don't look awful at this time. The MJO is back in the neutral circle at this time. What we don't yet know about the MJO yet is what Joe said... which is also a great post! We've got to wait until the current big storm gets out of the way, to better handle what's coming down the road. That's the biggest reason I've been quiet lately in this thread.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and this section of the forum looked lonely so I thought I would post something. Models are showing a warm up next and rather dramatic. Here is the problem with models and that is melting snow takes time especially over a large area an especially in late December. First of all models are showing a clipper system for Monday. Still to early to give out totals because these are small in area size but at this point all 3 major models are showing some snow. We will still be cold Monday so expect this storm to really have a higher ratio so getting 15-1 or maybe 20-1 is very possible so even 2/10ths of snow can bring you 3 or 4 inches. After the clipper the milder air will move in an if the tellies are correct a milder period is likely but it will take longer because of the widespread snow and this deep cold air mass is not easily moved or like trying to move me after a wonderful Thanksgiving Dinner

[tron777]

Good morning! The Monday clipper is showing 0.10-0.15" of liquid per GFS and Euro. We will have high ratios and every flake will count. I like an early 1-3" prelim call so far. Not quite into NAM Land yet. This system may become our next thread starter before the thaw comes for New Year's.

[tpweather]

Good morning! The Monday clipper is showing 0.10-0.15" of liquid per GFS and Euro. We will have high ratios and every flake will count. I like an early 1-3" prelim call so far. Not quite into NAM Land yet. This system may become our next thread starter before the thaw comes for New Year's.

Les a system to watch but with such a cold air mass in place this one may hit the hardest to our southwest. Still to early in game and with most clippers you just sort of catch up in the last 24 hours to find the path of the storm. Even if we miss the snow next week a slower period of warm up then models show and yesterday I saw 50 plus for Thursday and may guess by Monday the models will show that high temp will be closer to 42. Matter of fact we may not get above 32 until Wednesday late in the day. Models will catch up but give them time as they are probably frozen at the moment. Looks stormier late next week but is this a longer term pattern change and my answer is no and after 3 or 4 days or wet and mild expect us to head back towards normal for the new year which is highs in the upper 30's and lows in the lower 20's. So yes we will thaw out but I believe briefly. We have some winters where you get a cold snap early and then the remainder of winter is sort of boring in terms of winter weather. I do not believe that is the cast this winter as I expect a rather nice winter in terms of snow and yes cold.

[tron777]

Good morning! The Monday clipper is showing 0.10-0.15" of liquid per GFS and Euro. We will have high ratios and every flake will count. I like an early 1-3" prelim call so far. Not quite into NAM Land yet. This system may become our next thread starter before the thaw comes for New Year's.

Les a system to watch but with such a cold air mass in place this one may hit the hardest to our southwest. Still to early in game and with most clippers you just sort of catch up in the last 24 hours to find the path of the storm. Even if we miss the snow next week a slower period of warm up then models show and yesterday I saw 50 plus for Thursday and may guess by Monday the models will show that high temp will be closer to 42. Matter of fact we may not get above 32 until Wednesday late in the day. Models will catch up but give them time as they are probably frozen at the moment. Looks stormier late next week but is this a longer term pattern change and my answer is no and after 3 or 4 days or wet and mild expect us to head back towards normal for the new year which is highs in the upper 30's and lows in the lower 20's. So yes we will thaw out but I believe briefly. We have some winters where you get a cold snap early and then the remainder of winter is sort of boring in terms of winter weather. I do not believe that is the cast this winter as I expect a rather nice winter in terms of snow and yes cold.

It's going to depend how much the trough digs and how quickly our current storm gets out of the way so again... it's about the timing. The more of a dig, the more of a chance we can get some Gulf moisture involved. If it doesn't dig much and it shears out, very little snow will fall. That is kind of the set up in my mind that we are dealing with on this one.

[tron777]

Please use this thread for the Monday Clipper. Thanks! https://absolutevorticity.com/viewtopic.php?t=207

[Bgoney]

Ensembles are certainty headed for another 500mb pattern change late month . Losing the blocking ridge in the pac resulting in an Extension of the Pac jet into the west coast, and eventually the rest of the lower 48. Above normal temps for the start of new year.

[tron777]

Ensembles are certainty headed for another 500mb pattern change late month . Losing the blocking ridge in the pac resulting in an Extension of the Pac jet into the west coast, and eventually the rest of the lower 48. Above normal temps for the start of new year.

Yep. The current storm being so powerful is going to cause a hemispheric pattern change back to typical La Nina conditions. The Greenland block will get wiped out and we'll lose the -EPO too. -PNA coming back with SE ridge. Should be a mild and wet pattern for us as we close out December thru perhaps, the first week of January.

[tpweather]

Ensembles are certainty headed for another 500mb pattern change late month . Losing the blocking ridge in the pac resulting in an Extension of the Pac jet into the west coast, and eventually the rest of the lower 48. Above normal temps for the start of new year.

I agree that later next week into the weekend a milder period. I do expect though we will return to a more normal pattern say from the 2nd-9th or so of January. No doubt the pac jet is gearing up to head into the west coast but my reasoning is the amount of cold that will remain in Canada and even the northern areas of the USA especially in the northern plains and upper mid-west will allow systems to grab some of that cold and we end up with a normal pattern where we get into the low -mid 40's for a day or two and then we get rain to snow and temps drop back into the mid 30's before we repeat that pattern . That is how I see it playing out at the moment.

[tron777]

I think from 12/29 thru the first week of January mainly mild and active with rainy systems. I do think we go back to the Aleutian Low, blocking over the top pattern sometime in Week 2. We'll see how the timing looks when we get closer. We need the Nina to weaken to help out the return of winter's cause for the second half after we get thru the half time show.

Def want to discuss this further when I'm on vacation next week! Nino regions 3. 3.4 and 4 haven't warmed all that much but Region 1-2 off the South American Coast has warmed significantly as of late.

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[tron777]

The thing that bothers me is that the SOI is extremely positive and has been for a while. This tells me, the Nina isn't going to go away quickly.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[tpweather]

Les there is plenty to discuss and should be fun next week. Just looked at the 3 models in the 7-10 day range and the gfs is the warmest followed by the Euro and the CMC is the coldest. Need the CMC to keep its streak alive because it usually only has 2-4 streaks each winter lol

[tron777]

Les there is plenty to discuss and should be fun next week. Just looked at the 3 models in the 7-10 day range and the gfs is the warmest followed by the Euro and the CMC is the coldest. Need the CMC to keep its streak alive because it usually only has 2-4 streaks each winter lol

We'll see happens! I'm going with a GEFS / EPS blend for the long term.

[Mjr]

Off topic:
2 days ago I was checking out our pond.
I would estimate .25 inch thickness around the edge.
With this cold, how can one test for ability
To ice skate?

[tron777]

Off topic:
2 days ago I was checking out our pond.
I would estimate .25 inch thickness around the edge.
With this cold, how can one test for ability
To ice skate?

That's not nearly enough. I go ice fishing and have some good knowledge about ice thickness. If it is good clear ice, then 4" is really good to keep you from falling thru. 5-6" of ice if you want to drive a four wheeler out on it or a snow mobile. 12" minimum before I would even think about taking a regular sized car or truck on it. If the ice is honey-combed or cloudy it is usually weaker then the clearer ice is.

[Mjr]

I have a shallow end about a foot deep that I tested for the .25 inch
Yeah I broke through quickly.. I Will put on hip waiters on Monday and check. I’ll have one of my sons
With me to pull me out just in case..

[tron777]

I have a shallow end about a foot deep that I tested for the .25 inch
Yeah I broke through quickly.. I Will put on hip waiters on Monday and check. I’ll have one of my sons
With me to pull me out just in case..

The night couple of nights will be good for making ice. Should put on 1-2" a night in these temps and it will continue to make ice during the day as well. By Christmas Day it maybe test worthy.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and above zero this morning. Will talk about the clipper in that section of the forum but wanted to go ahead and talk about the next two weeks. Usually a stubborn person when it comes to long term forecasts but I had to make changes once I dug deeper into what is happening across the globe. Next week after the clipper we will start to warm up though Tuesday-Thursday much of the warming will be melting the snow and ice so temps will be about 5 degrees colder for highs than what models showed yesterday. Then we really get into some milder air and also rainfall will be become more widespread. That pattern should last the first full week of January though you can get a rain to snow at the end system but I see nothing that would cause problems and yes temps above average though you will get a day after the front where temps are nearer average.

So why the changes and of course if you look at the tellies all signs point to a warmer patter. Western Russia looks to get really cold and this is another area I have looked at for probably nearing 50 years when trying to forecast and of course back then I had to do a lot of weather forecast using the Sunday paper when I could get conditions across the world. So yes old ways of forecasting blended more and more with today's technology is how I make forecasts.

So do we return to winter after those 2 weeks and I believe the answer is yes. First I will be watching the mjo as it will be in horrible phases over the next week at least and the current phase is 4 and my guess this will finally head towards 5 and 6 which again are milder phases for the eastern USA. Once it gets into 6 you start to see changes in the central USA as they start to get more winter weather and of course for us we really need that to get into phase 8 to get us back to winter weather. If the mjo dies and goes into the COD in phases 4-6 that will keep the true winter weather from returning though it may be tempered compared to the warmth we should expect starting Friday of this week and continuing into next week.

Hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and to my weather family thank you for listening to my rants lol

[tron777]

Merry Christmas to all AV Posters and their families! The OP GFS tries to bring winter back in Week 2 of January. We shall see.

[tpweather]

A whopping 6 degrees outside but the sun is peaking in and out. Still gusty winds at time but not like Friday. Maybe hit 12 later today

[MVWxObserver]

A BLESSED CHRISTMAS EVERYWXONE!!

Sorta looking forward to the late week-starting mild up. Short-lived I know but will post-Christmas cranberry relish that.

12 with a WC of -5 and gust of 26 mph here in G'ville.