White Christmas Blizzard 2022

[tron777]

Hey Lisa... BG is talking about thunder snow being possible due to steep lapse rates esp over KY!

[Trentonwx06]

Big jump in the 15Z SREF everyone basically doubled.

[Pepper]

I am personally liking Brian Goodes map as it has me in the 6-8 range we shall see what happens. Only thing I have left to do is get the gasoline jug filled for the generator. You all stay safe and warm and Happy Holidays to all!

[tron777]

Big jump in the 15Z SREF everyone basically doubled.

EGADS! I checked CVG and the worst member is 3.4" and the weenie member of the day is 10"! It actually has a strong cluster of 3-6" members which was my call by Christmas Day morning. Perfect!

[cloudy72]

You got any thoughts on this system at all?

Not anything new that has been discussed here - you guys are detailed and comprehensive as usual!

[Pepper]

Side note so glad you all our posting today making my last hours at work go much faster lol

[tron777]

15Z SREF MEANS

CVG - 5.9"
HAO - 6.5"
ILN - 5.7"
MGY - 6.5"
DAY = 6.5"
CMH - 5.0"

[tron777]

Side note so glad you all our posting today making my last hours at work go much faster lol

Can't you work and post at the same time like me?

[tron777]

You got any thoughts on this system at all?

Not anything new that has been discussed here - you guys are detailed and comprehensive as usual!

Yes or No then on the 18Z run NAM'ing us?

[fyrfyter]

The ILN Briefing has upped the windchill threat to extreme -30 to -35 at the worst. Frostbite in 10 minutes on exposed skin.

Sounds like they are going to up the accumulations with the 3:00pm package.

[tron777]

Tim... pressure falls you ask?

pchg.gif

[tron777]

The ILN Briefing has upped the windchill threat to extreme -30 to -35 at the worst. Frostbite in 10 minutes on exposed skin.

Sounds like they are going to up the accumulations with the 3:00pm package.

I like the sound of that!

[cloudy72]

15Z SREF MEANS

CVG - 5.9"
HAO - 6.5"
ILN - 5.7"
MGY - 6.5"
DAY = 6.5"
CMH - 5.0"

Wonder if the 18z NAM will beef up the totals from the 12z run? So far it seems like the odd man out with the HRRR, GFS and Euro all showing higher totals.

[mainevilleweather]

With the exception of the NAM looks like every other model is predicting 4 to 10 from Cincy to Dayton, seems like the heaviest banding is setting up between 75 and 71 from just south of the river to I-70.

[fyrfyter]

The ILN Briefing has upped the windchill threat to extreme -30 to -35 at the worst. Frostbite in 10 minutes on exposed skin.

Sounds like they are going to up the accumulations with the 3:00pm package.

I like the sound of that!

Don't get too excited, it sounded like 0.5-1.0" is how much they are going up.

[tron777]

The ILN Briefing has upped the windchill threat to extreme -30 to -35 at the worst. Frostbite in 10 minutes on exposed skin.

Sounds like they are going to up the accumulations with the 3:00pm package.

I like the sound of that!

Don't get too excited, it sounded like 0.5-1.0" is how much they are going up.

Which would basically be 2-4" Matches up well with my ideas for tonight.

[tpweather]

Wow things they are a changing. Been trying to get a closer looks at how things are playing out to the west. One thing I noticed and maybe the reason for the higher totals that models are starting to throw out is in southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas looks like a low is trying to get itself together. I know Brian talked about how hard that is with the fast and strong jet. The precip in southern Missouri has been stubborn and not moving to much to the east over the last few hours and this would make sense if a low is trying to get itself established. Will continue to monitor that area

The one thing you notice is with the recent sref totals are going up from Paducah through Louisville into the Cincy/Day area. They have not gone up much in Indy or towards Lexington. To me this would indicate a low moving out of northeast Arkansas and heading towards eastern Kentucky. Again this is just trying to put the two together and may be happening.

[tron777]

18Z HRRR Kuchera:

snku_acc.us_ov.png

[BookNerdCarp]

Currently ILN has meet at 1 to 2"

[tron777]

Wow things they are a changing. Been trying to get a closer looks at how things are playing out to the west. One thing I noticed and maybe the reason for the higher totals that models are starting to throw out is in southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas looks like a low is trying to get itself together. I know Brian talked about how hard that is with the fast and strong jet. The precip in southern Missouri has been stubborn and not moving to much to the east over the last few hours and this would make sense if a low is trying to get itself established. Will continue to monitor that area

The one thing you notice is with the recent sref totals are going up from Paducah through Louisville into the Cincy/Day area. They have not gone up much in Indy or towards Lexington. To me this would indicate a low moving out of northeast Arkansas and heading towards eastern Kentucky. Again this is just trying to put the two together and may be happening.

Check out the divergence Tim down in the area you're referencing!

ddiv_sf.gif

[tpweather]

Thanks Les for the graphic. I believe there is something happening down there. Not sure if a low is forming but what it may do is at least slow things down somewhat which could give us a few more hours of snow later tonight plus maybe some more lift,

[mainevilleweather]

18z NAM may be coming around to agree with what the other models are showing.

[tpweather]

Louisville is including all the area around them to a winter storm warning. They believe snow totals are going to be higher. Would not surprise if spreads even further south and east as the evening goes to replace the winter weather advisory. Update and again things are changing fast but the western half of Kentucky is under the winter storm warning

[BookNerdCarp]

KYZ089-090-094>099-OHZ079-080-230415-
/O.UPG.KILN.WW.Y.0012.221223T0000Z-221223T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KILN.WS.W.0005.221223T0000Z-221223T2200Z/
/O.CON.KILN.WC.W.0001.221223T0600Z-221223T2200Z/
Carroll-Gallatin-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-
Brown-Highland-
Including the cities of Carrollton, Warsaw, Owenton,
Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta,
Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Georgetown, Mount Orab,
Hillsboro, and Greenfield
315 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, combination of snow,
blowing snow, and wind expected. Total snow accumulations of 1
to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. For the Wind Chill
Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as
low as 35 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Kentucky and South Central and
Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 7 PM this evening to
5 PM EST Friday. For the Wind Chill Warning, from 1 AM to 5 PM
EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The
cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will drop sharply in the
matter of a few hours during Thursday night, rapidly falling
well below freezing, leading to the potential for a flash
freeze. This will cause travel conditions to rapidly
deteriorate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Additional information can be found at www.weather.gov/iln as
well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

[dce]

Louisville is including all the area around them to a winter storm warning. They believe snow totals are going to be higher. Would not surprise if spreads even further south and east as the evening goes to replace the winter weather advisory. Update and again things are changing fast but the western half of Kentucky is under the winter storm warning

Still waiting for one of the NWS offices to pull the trigger on a blizzard warning. It probably wouldn't happen until the event is unfolding if it were to actually occur. This is unfolding to be a shutdown storm. I think several counties are going to end up with level 3 snow emergencies.