White Christmas Blizzard 2022

[Bgoney]

Those GFS totals equate to 2"per hr for 4 hrs. A true Christmas miracle??

I know that seems far fetched, but I’ve seen a few public safety videos already, where it was snowing so hard and the wind caused them not be be able to see past the hood of their cars. Like this one-



That roar reminds me of a hurricane.

I have no doubts it is going to snow that hard believe me, its the for 4 hrs straight part I'm having trouble with

[tpweather]

Remember the 120 knot jet streak I mentioned? Models that give us better totals strengthen the jet streak as it roars thru TN and SKY at around 145 knots! Tremendous lift expected behind the arctic front tonight.

Les we have been talking about this for the last two days and that jet is stronger than the jet stream with the 78 blizzard. Again we have went over why its not the 78 blizzard but there are certain things that are similar.

[House of Cards]

Euro seems to cut down on the sustained winds Hamilton county on south but nice snow

I would be good with less winds. Our house is like a wind tunnel most of the time anyway, so this stuff will play havoc with my lights on the gutters and eaves.

[tron777]

Checking 700 MB moisture and the snow shower machine should continue on and off for Friday and on Christmas Eve as well. Additional accumulations are expected with this activity. Temps in the single digits. Wow! The worst snow will be this evening and into tonight with lighter, but still impactful snows for a couple extra days. With winds 40-50 mph Fri and 30 mph on Sat the conditions are going to be tough. I think this is how it's going to play out. Too much data now supporting this.

Still love 2-4" with isolated higher amounts tonight as we've discussed. Then add on an additional 1-2" over the Fri and Sat period for a storm total of 3-6" by Christmas Morning. Obviously, we're not going to measure this as discussed so I will use the Big 3 sites: CVG, DAY, and CMH for verification. This is my FINAL CALL and I feel very confident about it.

[tron777]

Remember the 120 knot jet streak I mentioned? Models that give us better totals strengthen the jet streak as it roars thru TN and SKY at around 145 knots! Tremendous lift expected behind the arctic front tonight.

Les we have been talking about this for the last two days and that jet is stronger than the jet stream with the 78 blizzard. Again we have went over why its not the 78 blizzard but there are certain things that are similar.

The bombogenesis part for sure or rapid deepening of the low. We just don't see that often in our area.

[tpweather]

Checking 700 MB moisture and the snow shower machine should continue on and off for Friday and on Christmas Eve as well. Additional accumulations are expected with this activity. Temps in the single digits. Wow! The worst snow will be this evening and into tonight with lighter, but still impactful snows for a couple extra days. With winds 40-50 mph Fri and 30 mph on Sat the conditions are going to be tough. I think this is how it's going to play out. Too much data now supporting this.

Still love 2-4" with isolated higher amounts tonight as we've discussed. Then add on an additional 1-2" over the Fri and Sat period for a storm total of 3-6" by Christmas Morning. Obviously, we're not going to measure this as discussed so I will use the Big 3 sites: CVG, DAY, and CMH for verification. This is my FINAL CALL and I feel very confident about it.

Great Post Les and my final call is 2-5 even with the additional snows possible Friday and Saturday. Just hard to know exactly where those snow showers will hit and again I can seeing somebody who gets in the correct spot to get 6 inches but I make 2-5 my final call. Have not changed since Tuesday night and at this point I have no reason but no doubt I will be watching weather reports and radars later this afternoon and evening along with any major pressure changes in a certain area that could form a low pressure. I can tell you the 78 blizzard there were many changes in the last 6-12 hours before that hit and with these systems that have extreme cold the weather can react in a harsh way that we don't see that often.

[tpweather]

I see that Boone,Campbell and Kenton county in Kentucky have already issued a level 1 snow emergency. I don't remember them ever issuing one 6 hours before the first flakes fly.

[tron777]

GEFS is pretty snow weenie looking too! Wow! The mean at 10:1 is 5" for the entire period I described.

[cloudy72]

Checking 700 MB moisture and the snow shower machine should continue on and off for Friday and on Christmas Eve as well. Additional accumulations are expected with this activity. Temps in the single digits. Wow! The worst snow will be this evening and into tonight with lighter, but still impactful snows for a couple extra days. With winds 40-50 mph Fri and 30 mph on Sat the conditions are going to be tough. I think this is how it's going to play out. Too much data now supporting this.

Still love 2-4" with isolated higher amounts tonight as we've discussed. Then add on an additional 1-2" over the Fri and Sat period for a storm total of 3-6" by Christmas Morning. Obviously, we're not going to measure this as discussed so I will use the Big 3 sites: CVG, DAY, and CMH for verification. This is my FINAL CALL and I feel very confident about it.

Hey Les - I like your call on this! Will definitely be an impactful storm no matter what happens.

[BookNerdCarp]

Les - in regards to your forecast....

[cloudy72]

17z HRRR has it going from 43 at 9pm in DAY to -7 at 6am Friday (with a wind chill of -30!!)!

[tron777]

Checking 700 MB moisture and the snow shower machine should continue on and off for Friday and on Christmas Eve as well. Additional accumulations are expected with this activity. Temps in the single digits. Wow! The worst snow will be this evening and into tonight with lighter, but still impactful snows for a couple extra days. With winds 40-50 mph Fri and 30 mph on Sat the conditions are going to be tough. I think this is how it's going to play out. Too much data now supporting this.

Still love 2-4" with isolated higher amounts tonight as we've discussed. Then add on an additional 1-2" over the Fri and Sat period for a storm total of 3-6" by Christmas Morning. Obviously, we're not going to measure this as discussed so I will use the Big 3 sites: CVG, DAY, and CMH for verification. This is my FINAL CALL and I feel very confident about it.

Hey Les - I like your call on this! Will definitely be an impactful storm no matter what happens.

Thanks Mike! this is a great share the wealth storm that we don't see often. everyone has an equal chance at seeing the heaviest snow. We will all see the flash freeze, temp drop, high winds, blowing and drifting of snow, etc. You got any thoughts on this system at all?

[tron777]

17z HRRR has it going from 43 at 9pm in DAY to -7 at 6am Friday (with a wind chill of -30!!)!

I'm going with -4 to -5 IMBY / CVG.

[fyrfyter]

Apparently a surface low has popped in NW Arkansas.

70FCBDA2-0F93-4BEF-9F94-F7DC8EFD9E6A.jpeg

[tron777]

Still unclear of other lows forming down south yet. Still just seeing a couple of broad areas. We do have a very broad area over the OV as well that will slowly deepen in time. Might be getting a low forming over Central IN which was expected on the modeling. 1009 MB That East Coast low continues to deepen, now at 1010 MB over SW South Carolina.

700 MB Moisture. Can't wait to see when or if those two areas of moisture meet up!

700mb_sf.gif

[tron777]

You know something's cooking when BG does two SnowTalks! in one day. Next one should be starting up shortly.

[cincy bud]

Getting very foggy here in N Butler Co and S. Preble Co.

[tron777]

Getting very foggy here in N Butler Co and S. Preble Co.

Warmer air coming up over the colder ground. That'll mix out once the front gets closer.

[Snowbrain2]

Checking 700 MB moisture and the snow shower machine should continue on and off for Friday and on Christmas Eve as well. Additional accumulations are expected with this activity. Temps in the single digits. Wow! The worst snow will be this evening and into tonight with lighter, but still impactful snows for a couple extra days. With winds 40-50 mph Fri and 30 mph on Sat the conditions are going to be tough. I think this is how it's going to play out. Too much data now supporting this.

Still love 2-4" with isolated higher amounts tonight as we've discussed. Then add on an additional 1-2" over the Fri and Sat period for a storm total of 3-6" by Christmas Morning. Obviously, we're not going to measure this as discussed so I will use the Big 3 sites: CVG, DAY, and CMH for verification. This is my FINAL CALL and I feel very confident about it.

Enjoying the terrific weather information shared on this site. Up my way, in the primary snow belt of NE Ohio 8-12++ inches appears likely.
Have a feeling our local NWS will be playing catch up with snow totals, and would not shock me if we see over15- 20 inches in spots up here.

[Browneyedgirl]

With so much energy is there a chance of thunder snow?

[tron777]

Yep, Meso page has a 1008 MB low now over Central IN and our East Coast low at 1010 MB over Eastern NC.

[tron777]

[cincy bud]

Getting very foggy here in N Butler Co and S. Preble Co.

Warmer air coming up over the colder ground. That'll mix out once the front gets closer.

Just giving you a report of a change.

[tron777]

With so much energy is there a chance of thunder snow?

I don't think so because the air is going to be so cold and most of this is anafrontal or behind the front. I'd love to be wrong though because we will have some very good lift and divergence.

[tron777]

Getting very foggy here in N Butler Co and S. Preble Co.

Warmer air coming up over the colder ground. That'll mix out once the front gets closer.

Just giving you a report of a change.

Of course! Thank you, Bud.