White Christmas Blizzard 2022

[Bgoney]

I'll stay slightly on the lower side with 2-3" and iso 4". There only so much moisture post fropa and winds are my reasons. I will defer official snow amounts to cvg, Dayton, cbus noaa offices

Good call on official obs sites. Backyard snow measurements will be highly inaccurate with this due to wind.

Trev, can you get some info from your friend at ILN on what qpf they're expecting in snow. We can then figure out how much effects they are thinking the winds will have on ratios. This is basically the difference in forecasters thinking of snowfall amounts here , TV forecasts and Noaa offices. Kuchera is useless in this situation .

[tron777]

MD issued for heavy snow for portions of Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois:


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2059.html


SPC Mesopage surface map shows a 1010 MB low over Deep South Texas. I mean this thing really dug far to the south, which is one thing we needed to see for the higher range of the forecast to be correct. 1054 MB high over Montana. We must also keep an eye on that East Coast system, which is currently a 1014 Mb low along the SC Coast. Since the Gulf is not wide open with this system, we need to get some moisture from somewhere. We need this system to close off and go to town hopefully at the right time to pull in some moisture on the backside into the arctic air over us. I think that this process may occur, but it could be a but too our East when it happens so PA and Upstate NY get rocked! Been seeing hints at that on the Euro and EPS models especially lately. I'm going to be keeping an eye on that. Very low chance it helps us out as I said, but it could hammer the Apps on NE bound.

[tron777]

Just checking some pressure falls and so fall nothing drastic as we don't expect the big falls until later today. The front is in west central Illinois already so the front is moving and would not surprise me if the time period is moved up by and hour or so and especially if the system does not get cranking until a few hours later than expected.

Models continue to bust in that regard. Front is coming thru at least an hour earlier in some areas and temps are avg. 10 degrees colder then guidance as well.

[Bgoney]

So far like most systems there have been busts both ways and even less than 50 miles apart in some areas. Will watch pressure changes today which is critical in seeing where a low pressure may form. Want to see if the noon models are going to raise precip totals or lower them and this is another piece of the puzzle. I love systems that are getting stronger as it heads this way and though this is more of a system getting stronger while its in our neighborhood. Once this storm really starts to get going you don't always have that straight west to east line of cold but instead cold is wrapping around the system and the cold will move in from the southwest to northeast. That is key to folks say in Columbus because you may stay liquid a little longer if that timing is correct.

Great post here!

Yes , yet another factor in the snowfall equation we have to equate

[tron777]

Is there a way to verify which model is handling this correctly so far?

To be honest, nothing is handling this extremely accurately.

[tpweather]

12Z HRRR Kuchera.


12ZHRRR.png

Good Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.

[tron777]

Here comes the energy getting ready to round the base of the trough to get this thing kick started.

500mb_sf.gif

[tron777]

12Z HRRR Kuchera.


12ZHRRR.png

Good Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.

Kroger's was tough here yesterday. Better then waiting until today.

[tron777]

Seeing some light rain here with temps around 40.

[House of Cards]

12Z HRRR Kuchera.


12ZHRRR.png

Good Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.

I went shopping for a few things last night at the Springdale Rd Krogers, there were almost no eggs, bread aisle was decimated, there were entire cases/bins in the produce section that were completely empty including potatoes. I don't remember ever seeing it like that, but then, I generally don't shop when it's supposed to snow.

[Bgoney]

12Z HRRR Kuchera.


12ZHRRR.png

Good Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.

Kroger's was tough here yesterday. Better then waiting until today.

Kuchera is absolutely useless in this situation

[tron777]

As a side note... once the front gets closer to us, we know the posting will be getting heavier on here... (I hope LOL) When you post your observations, which will be very important as the front closes in and passes thru the area... Please post your location if it is not listed on your profile or signature. Thanks!!! Post your winds, temps, observations, whatever you can. Take some pics too as long as you can so do safely. Let's enjoy this one no matter what happens because from a Metrological standpoint, it's going to be very interesting over the next 24 to 36 hours.

[tron777]

Kuchera is absolutely useless in this situation

It should be a very powdery, dry, sandy type of snow. Like grains of sugar once the temps really drop. Too bad about the wind, because those ratios would have been awesome if it weren't for that. However as a trade-off, some of us will be seeing white out conditions so that'll be a nice treat as long as you're not out in it.

[tron777]

Looks like MSP has finished with 8.1" on 0.46" liquid.

[tpweather]

Here comes the energy getting ready to round the base of the trough to get this thing kick started.


500mb_sf.gif

Les that is key and believe that is why you see one run models go up with snow totals and the next run it goes down. That is a serious piece of energy imo and where the energy goes makes a difference in when this storm cranks up. The one thing lacking with this system has been moisture. Part of that problem is the system on the east coast and if that would have moved away we could have got a better flow off the gom but that is not to be with this system so yes we get the lift with the front itself and then we need the correct timing of when the system really cranks up

[Bgoney]

Kuchera is absolutely useless in this situation

It should be a very powdery, dry, sandy type of snow. Like grains of sugar once the temps really drop. Too bad about the wind, because those ratios would have been awesome if it weren't for that. However as a trade-off, some of us will be seeing white out conditions so that'll be a nice treat as long as you're not out in it.

No doubt , those first 2 or 3 hours are going to be epic, in one way I wish it was during daylight hours, but in the other its better timing for travelers

[tpweather]

I believe the most confident part of the storm imo is the flash freeze as I see no break in precip falling as the front moves through and yes many times you have that 2-3 hour window of dry and windy which helps dry out the streets and sidewalks but in this case I do not see that happening at all and even may get a 5 minute changeover to sleet as models will have problems with precip type but should not be long lasting at all.

[tron777]

Kuchera is absolutely useless in this situation

It should be a very powdery, dry, sandy type of snow. Like grains of sugar once the temps really drop. Too bad about the wind, because those ratios would have been awesome if it weren't for that. However as a trade-off, some of us will be seeing white out conditions so that'll be a nice treat as long as you're not out in it.

No doubt , those first 2 or 3 hours are going to be epic, in one way I wish it was during daylight hours, but in the other its better timing for travelers

Agreed! I'm tired, but this snow weenie is going to stay up for a little while to witness some of this.

[fyrfyter]

152F82CC-B970-42CD-B856-4722ED52905F.jpeg

6z Euro seems like it’s headed towards the GFS? It’s late, but if they are on to something, we all may bust low.

I would be happy if the GFS wins just once.

[tron777]

Here comes the energy getting ready to round the base of the trough to get this thing kick started.


500mb_sf.gif

Les that is key and believe that is why you see one run models go up with snow totals and the next run it goes down. That is a serious piece of energy imo and where the energy goes makes a difference in when this storm cranks up. The one thing lacking with this system has been moisture. Part of that problem is the system on the east coast and if that would have moved away we could have got a better flow off the gom but that is not to be with this system so yes we get the lift with the front itself and then we need the correct timing of when the system really cranks up

Exactly right Tim, great post once again. That is why it is going to be tough in our area for someone to get over 6". Had the Gulf be wide open it would have been a different story. Although, the warm tongue of death may have killed us anyway.

[Bgoney]

You might want to have lock de-icer on hand for older cars that use a key. I've been in situations where customers have needed assistance and it can be a huge PITA, to get undone

[tpweather]

You might want to have lock de-icer on hand for older cars that use a key. I've been in situations where customers have needed assistance and it can be a huge PITA, to get undone

Great Advice!!! I tell my kids this all the time but they never listen to poor old dad and must find out the hard way

[Bgoney]

You might want to have lock de-icer on hand for older cars that use a key. I've been in situations where customers have needed assistance and it can be a huge PITA, to get undone

Great Advice!!! I tell my kids this all the time but they never listen to poor old dad and must find out the hard way

Yep, these are things one remembers in a true severe winter event. I bet they'll tell their kids the same thing after this.

[tpweather]

Trying to watch trends today and not easy as we have pieces of energy in different spots and that is why you see a low pop here and a low pop there and sort of like whack a mole. To me heading towards Iowa and northern Illinois the snowfall as lessen but if you head down into western Missouri and Kansas the snow has picked up. My guess that energy coming out of the Rockies is going to mess with models somewhat today. We will see if this trend continue but with so many fast moving parts its not easy to keep up with the trends

[cincy bud]

36 in Somerville with light drizzle and calm winds