Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

Just like on the old forum, we can use this thread to discuss the hurricane season in general. Then we can create a new thread in this forum once a storm becomes a TD. Then edit the storm thread once it gets a name, etc etc.

[tron777]

Something also of interest (this applies to both the ATL and PAC basins) but instead of the Greek Alphabet, if we run out of names again like last year, this is the new alternate list of names that will now be used:

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/su ... names-raiv

[cloudy72]

We will run out of names again especially if they keep up the pace of naming anything that swirls in the Atlantic basin (i.e. Subtropical Storm Cloudy72) LOL

[tron777]

We will run out of names again especially if they keep up the pace of naming anything that swirls in the Atlantic basin (i.e. Subtropical Storm Cloudy72) LOL

I am on the list in the Eastern Pacific for 2022.

[tron777]

We've got an Invest East of Bermuda in the Atlantic that the NHX is keeping an eye on. 40% chance of development in the next 5 days. If it does turn into something, it'll be a slow process and probably a subtropical storm. Here are the list of names below in the Atlantic season for 2021:

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Elsa
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Julian
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

[MVWxObserver]

We will run out of names again especially if they keep up the pace of naming anything that swirls in the Atlantic basin (i.e. Subtropical Storm Cloudy72) LOL

I am on the list in the Eastern Pacific for 2022.

Bro, and your Dad's and bro's name is on this season's list for the Atlantic / Caribbean / GOM.

[tron777]

The Invest E of Bermuda now has a 50% chance in the next 48 hours and 80% in the next 5 days. We could see Ana this weekend with Bermuda the only landmass at risk right now.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

A 90% chance now... sub TS Ana is on the way here soon!

[tron777]

The Invest East of Bermuda still holding at an 80% chance for development.

We also now have a new Invest on the board in the Western Gulf. A 20% chance of development in the next 5 days is currently progged by the NHC. We will continue to monitor the tropics as that season is now upon us.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[cloudy72]

Here is what the Euro thinks - it unfortunately looks like some more heavy rains for SE Texas (like they need any more). You can also see the fish storm east of Bermuda and something else stirring in the E Pacific. Tropics are heating up already!!

ecmwf-tcprobs-all-conuswide-prob_td_ecmwf-1814400.png

[tron777]

Could be another busy year if the Bermuda high is strong and positioned over the CONUS. May see a lot of home brew systems this year.

[tron777]

90% chance now for the E of Bermuda disturbance and the W. Gulf disturbance, now has a 60% chance! Things are heating up in the tropics quickly!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

Sub TS Ana has formed with winds of 40 mph. It is expected to remain a fish storm moving NE out to sea away from Bermuda. Strength should remain on the weak side and by early next week, it should be gone.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.s ... t#contents

[tron777]

Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021
500 PM AST Sat May 22 2021

While Ana continues to produce convection near the center, the
amount of convection has decreased during the past several hours.
In addition, earlier scatterometer data and recent satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB suggest the cyclone has weakened.
The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.

A combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs
should cause Ana to gradually weaken, and most of the global models
now show the system decaying to a trough in about 36 h. The new
intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening with dissipation
just after that time, and it is possible that Ana could dissipate
earlier than currently forecast.

Ana made a small counter-clockwise loop during the past few hours,
and the initial motion is now 050/4. A continued northeastward
motion at an increasing forward speed, due to the southwesterly
flow associated with a developing mid-latitude cyclone to the north
and northwest, is expected until the cyclone dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 34.5N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 34.9N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 38.3N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[tron777]

STS Ana has winds of 45 mph this morning moving NE at 12 mph away from Bermuda and out to sea. Another 24 to 48 hours and we're rid of our first named system of the year.

[tron777]

Ana is gone. All is quiet attm.

[tron777]

Long Range GFS keeps trying to cook up a fantasy tropical system in the Gulf or W. Caribbean in early June. We shall see, but that would be the best place to start looking this time of year, a home brew system.

[tron777]

CSU's Forecast for the season:

CSU Forecast.jpg

[tron777]

Alright, here we go:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

A 40% chance in the next 5 days of development. We've got something cooking in the S Gulf.

[tron777]

S Gulf disturbance is now at a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days,

[tron777]

The disturbance off the SE Coast is trying to get a little frisky.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[cloudy72]

Looks like we officially have TD TWO off the North Carolina outer banks

[tron777]

The S Gulf disturbance is now up to a 60% chance. TD 2... And a wave is coming off of Africa that now has a 20% chance. Lots to watch folks!

[cloudy72]

TD 2 will be a fish storm - the disturbance in the Gulf potentially could be a lot more interesting in time.....

143943_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[tron777]

Still have TD 2 out there with winds of 35 mph.

The S Gulf low now has a 70% chance of development and the African wave has a 20% chance.