November 2022 Weather Discussion

[dce]

MJO is moving... as of 11/22 def in Phase 6 as we've discussed.


AussieMJO.gif


I have talked about the MJO models already. Do we get to 7 then it dies or 8? That'll make a big difference by Week 2 of December. It's the difference between the cold bleeding in here or maybe never fully getting in... or it does charge in here if it's in 8? I think the PNA will remain negative due to Nina forcing with systems coming into the West. However, EPO and NAO are still forecast to go negative in December so that would mean a cold and stormy pattern. I am going with my 12/10 to 12/15 call right now for the flip to winter. The earliest wouldn't be until 12/5 but I think it's a bit rushed and need to give the pattern more time to develop.



EPO.jpg


NAO.jpg

Look at the cold waters in the western Pacific Ocean. In my opinion, every time the MJO comes up against these colder waters it causes the thunderstorms to die out right about where phase 8 is. That is why we see the MJO head straight to the circle of death everytime it barely gets into phase 8. And probably why it will never get into phase 1 with all that cold water out there.

[young pup]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. Enjoy it until fall asleep from eating to much food. Wake up do it again.

[tron777]

Look at the cold waters in the western Pacific Ocean. In my opinion, every time the MJO comes up against these colder waters it causes the thunderstorms to die out right about where phase 8 is. That is why we see the MJO head straight to the circle of death everytime it barely gets into phase 8. And probably why it will never get into phase 1 with all that cold water out there.

Absolutely correct. It could make it to 8 like the last time, but that's about it. The Nina forcing is going to want to keep it in phases 6 and 7 more often then not. So a -EPO / -NAO can help to counteract it some, esp the deeper into winter we get.

[tpweather]

Doug that was a wonderful post about the mjo. That is why blocking in Greenland imo early in the winter season is important. How do the systems off the China and Japan coast do when they get over the waters of the pacific which in that part of the world is warm. Again we always have the 1000 piece puzzle and not the 50 piece puzzle

[tron777]

Good morning! I picked up 0/.05" from the first round of rain. CVG got 0.09" Next round comes in Sat night into the day on Sunday.

[tron777]

[tron777]

I hope everyone had a great Black Friday! I finished the leaf grinding for the last time this season! I am ready for snow here whenever it decides to come. We are probably a few weeks away from that with rain bearing down on us Sat night into the day on Sunday, Tomorrow won't be bad at all for those needing to do yard clean up or decorating. After the Mich / OSU game, I may try to do some decorating. We'll see how things go.

[tron777]

As of 11/24, the MJO was in Phase 7 now and continuing to move. However, the wave is now at a high amplitude so it's impact on the pattern will be weaker then you'd otherwise expect. Still... it's moving so we'll continue to keep an eye on it. No changes to any long range thoughts. Still going with 12/10-12/15 timeframe for the cold to make more enroads here. Until then, the SE ridge is going to keep it just to our NW then it'll slowly bleed in. Should be a lot of overrunning events with stalled out fronts and lots of rain, ice, and snow depending on where the front is and how strong the -PNA is.

[tpweather]

As of 11/24, the MJO was in Phase 7 now and continuing to move. However, the wave is now at a high amplitude so it's impact on the pattern will be weaker then you'd otherwise expect. Still... it's moving so we'll continue to keep an eye on it. No changes to any long range thoughts. Still going with 12/10-12/15 timeframe for the cold to make more enroads here. Until then, the SE ridge is going to keep it just to our NW then it'll slowly bleed in. Should be a lot of overrunning events with stalled out fronts and lots of rain, ice, and snow depending on where the front is and how strong the -PNA is.

Hey Les and great post about the mjo and we do have a decent system moving in here late Saturday and Sunday that should give us a good dose of rainfall. Over the next couple weeks like you mentioned its going to be busy though most of the time we are looking at rain we can get some back end snows once in awhile but they usually don't amount to much. The PNA is key and one day it shows going rather negative and the next day the model as it trying to head positive. That is the reason one day the models has a milder look and other days it shows tons of cold headed this way. Yes these are fantasy runs but it does show you what happens when a tellie changes and how that change will do a 180 on a forecast. I will continue to look around the world to see if any clues help in future forecasts but at the moment we are going through some changes and a big part of that is the arctic regions getting really cold and we need this if we want some cold later in December and for it to last several weeks.

[MVWxObserver]

As of 11/24, the MJO was in Phase 7 now and continuing to move. However, the wave is now at a high amplitude so it's impact on the pattern will be weaker then you'd otherwise expect. Still... it's moving so we'll continue to keep an eye on it. No changes to any long range thoughts. Still going with 12/10-12/15 timeframe for the cold to make more enroads here. Until then, the SE ridge is going to keep it just to our NW then it'll slowly bleed in. Should be a lot of overrunning events with stalled out fronts and lots of rain, ice, and snow depending on where the front is and how strong the -PNA is.

Will be keeping tabs on 12/12-12/15 as my folks will be going to Middlebury and Shipshewana, IN (northern part of that state) for their 61st wedding anniversary.

[tpweather]

As of 11/24, the MJO was in Phase 7 now and continuing to move. However, the wave is now at a high amplitude so it's impact on the pattern will be weaker then you'd otherwise expect. Still... it's moving so we'll continue to keep an eye on it. No changes to any long range thoughts. Still going with 12/10-12/15 timeframe for the cold to make more enroads here. Until then, the SE ridge is going to keep it just to our NW then it'll slowly bleed in. Should be a lot of overrunning events with stalled out fronts and lots of rain, ice, and snow depending on where the front is and how strong the -PNA is.

Will be keeping tabs on 12/12-12/15 as my folks will be going to Middlebury and Shipshewana, IN (northern part of that state) for their 61st wedding anniversary.

Hey Eric, that is a wonderful post and to see folks stayed married for that long is great. Hope they have a wonderful anniversary.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice frost outside this morning and could even see a slick spots on the bridges but mostly okay and by 9am should be above 32. A rather potent system heading our way and it will be getting stronger the further north it heads. Depending on exactly how strong and when it decides to turn more east than northeast will determine rainfall amounts. Still going with the 1-.1.25 which includes the 0.09 on Friday. If this strong really cranks up then more than likely some form of a dry slot will form. The stronger the storm then we may get dry slotted for a few hours which can knock down totals somewhat. Going to some banding of rain with this system and somebody probably towards Indy could see over 1.5 inches. No doubt the biggest system we have seen in months plus rather widespread in our area. The winds will be another problem with this system on very gusty on Sunday and more like a March system.

We get a short break and the another system in here Tuesday and Wednesday and this should bring another shot of rain and wind but it should turn colder and this could lead to a few flurries or a snow shower at the end but no problems. Will warm up rather quickly Friday into next weekend until another system heads our way.

So yes this was a big pattern change from cold and dry to mild and wet. There is going to be plenty of cold air in the northern 1/4 of the country and plenty of warmth in the southern 1/3 over the next few weeks so this will continue the pattern until we get a pathway to bring the colder air further south and that looks around mid-month.

[Bgoney]

Awesome holiday weekend weather, nice sunny days , then much needed rainfall to cap it off. Seems like we've been talking about this system for weeks and it finally arrives tonight/early morning. Sticking with slightly lower amounts, .75" or less for AVLAND. For me it all depends on the exact track of low for higher totals. I still think there is a dryslot/screw zone nearby. After the initial slug of moisture overnight there will be a lull then scattered showers develop , how numerous will they be , depends on low position and how much dry air gets wrapped in at mid-levels.

Agree that the OV should stay active and wet periodically through the first 10 days of December. Sure looks like a stationary front developing and hanging out in Tennessee/OV with a fairly potent SE. Another nice -EPO modeled, but centered more on the Aleutians/western Alaska early on resulting in -PNA and potent SE ridge. For how long is the question

[tron777]

Good morning all! What a beautiful morning with the heavy frost and freezing fog! It looked pretty out there before the sun came up and melted it all. I don't have much to add to what everyone else has already said. We are all on the same page tracking the pattern change to colder and hopefully snowier. Agree with everyone else that the first 10 days of Dec should mainly be wet then white for us. Until then, two much needed rain makers and wind makers too are on the way...

[MVWxObserver]

As of 11/24, the MJO was in Phase 7 now and continuing to move. However, the wave is now at a high amplitude so it's impact on the pattern will be weaker then you'd otherwise expect. Still... it's moving so we'll continue to keep an eye on it. No changes to any long range thoughts. Still going with 12/10-12/15 timeframe for the cold to make more enroads here. Until then, the SE ridge is going to keep it just to our NW then it'll slowly bleed in. Should be a lot of overrunning events with stalled out fronts and lots of rain, ice, and snow depending on where the front is and how strong the -PNA is.

Will be keeping tabs on 12/12-12/15 as my folks will be going to Middlebury and Shipshewana, IN (northern part of that state) for their 61st wedding anniversary.

Hey Eric, that is a wonderful post and to see folks stayed married for that long is great. Hope they have a wonderful anniversary.

Thank you very much Tim! Also Mom will turn 83 on Dec 13th so they'll be celebrating that, too, while up that way.

They tied the knot at Mom's home church in Princeton, IN not far from Evansville.

Currently 46 and progged to top out at around 56 here in G'ville.

GO BUCKEYES!!

[MVWxObserver]

Congrats to Les's Wolverines!

Man, the Buckeyes had such a great 1st half ...then decided to roll over and "die" in the 2nd.

Lost in Ann Arbor last year and this year at home.

Currently 52 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

It was a back n forth game until Mich took control in the second half! Awesome game and look forwards of course to next year's game! 57 here today... gorgeous! I put up a few Christmas Lights outside after the game. Rain tomorrow so might start the tree inside? We'll see!

[tron777]

Wind Advisory in effect for all of the Cincy Metro tomorrow. Gusts to 45 mph expected.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 46 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and
Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 3 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

[tron777]

Rain tonight and tomorrow and again Tues night and Wed. That ends Nov. I will start our Dec thread now.

[tron777]

0.61" at CVG event total so far. 0.75" here as of this post. Periods of rain will continue on and off today decreasing in coverage by this evening. Then we will track that Tues / Wed system to wrap up the month.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is trying to crash the cold air in quicker Wed afternoon with the frontal passage (11/30) to change the rain over to some flakes before ending. No accum or issues expected of course but something to watch for next week's forecast.

[Bgoney]

As of Noon some totals for CVLand for the whole event, KDAY .85....KCMH .62......Wright Patt .70.......KLUK .65.......KILN .62 .....CVG .70...... Here .55"

[tron777]

0.77" so far here.

[young pup]

6 tenths here. Getting windy and I hope it brings down the rest of these pear tree leaves

[tron777]

Some big limbs coming down here, pine cones, and the rest of the oak leaves. We will get one last band of showers with the front in the late afternoon to early evening hours.