November 2022 Weather Discussion

[Mfitz730]

Had my nephew's flag football tournament today at Paycor Stadium. Let's just say the poor kids weren't ready for the snow! They still had a blast though!

[MVWxObserver]

Had my nephew's flag football tournament today at Paycor Stadium. Let's just say the poor kids weren't ready for the snow! They still had a blast though!

What a neat honored treat to have had the event there at that venue!

[tron777]

Good evening all and we're on the board for winter 2022-2023 ! 1.2" at CVG today which is a new snowfall record for the day! Old record was 0.7" set back in 2013. DAY got 1.8" today also breaking a daily snowfall record. Old one was 1" set way back in 1894! Finally, at CMH 0.2" fell today.

Congrats as well to Jeff (Snowbrain2) for winning Part 1 of our snowfall contest!

[tron777]

14C0BC9C-C99A-4E24-90EA-5686ABF60AA1.jpeg

Update from Oxford. City crews are now out salting. So glad I’m done doing that!

Yes Sir... that 3" report I saw from Oxford was the biggest in our CWA. Nice start to the season, way to go!

[tron777]

Had my nephew's flag football tournament today at Paycor Stadium. Let's just say the poor kids weren't ready for the snow! They still had a blast though!

That's awesome! Looks like a lot of fun! Reminds me of when my brother and I played football in the snow growing up.

[young pup]

Had my nephew's flag football tournament today at Paycor Stadium. Let's just say the poor kids weren't ready for the snow! They still had a blast though!

That's great. I bet they were having a great time though.

[Snowbrain2]

Picked up 3 inches last night. Seasonal total up to 6,25 inches for my backyard in Chardon.

[tpweather]

Love seeing those pics. Will we see more of that this week? The first system that heads this way overnight Monday and Tuesday looks less and less likely for anything major in terms of snowfall. Problem is the system sort of splits into two low pressure with one heading to our northwest and the other staying near the gulf coast. When these are that far apart very hard to get a major snow in this area. Saying that we could still see some light snow Tuesday morning for a brief period before we end up with a drizzle /light rain during the day. So the further north and west you live the better shot of getting a quick inch or so. Wednesday and Thursday could bring snow flurries and a few snow showers so possible to get a quick 1/2 inch here and there but some folks may be missed. Friday-Sunday will bring very cold weather for this time of year and temps in the 30's during the day and can see some lows in the 15-20 degree range. Then we start to see the pattern change to a milder one towards Thanksgiving and models this far out usually have a problem with showing a stronger storm. I expect in the next several days the models will start to show that for the Sun-Tues period and will that be near us or the east coast is just way to early to figure that one out.

[tron777]

Good afternoon all! Did some Christmas shopping today to try and beat the crowds and it's already getting busy. Glad I'm done other then waiting for things to arrive via the internet.

Anyway, 37 for my high today some 18 degrees below the avg high of 55. Then we get a cold night tonight if we can lose the clouds. 20 to 25 if we lose the clouds, 30s if we don't. Then a high in the 40s tomorrow ahead of our next system. Looking like some snow to start the event early Tues morning then mixing with and changing to rain on Tuesday. For the AM Commute, snow North of Cincy, rain south right now is my call. Kind of like this last system where Cincy was the dividing line / OH River. Could be a few slick spots IMO North and West of Cincy Tues AM. PM commute just rain lingering in the East, should begin to dry in the West. Flurries maybe Wed more likely Thurs in the cyclonic flow and a weak disturbance moving thru bringing in the next shot of cold air. Highs in the 30s lows in the teens and 20s as Tim mentioned. Dry and cold for the weekend at this point.

Longer term... GFS has some rain on Thanksgiving as we warm up briefly, but turn cold again thereafter.

[MVWxObserver]

Could be some slick spots early to mid morning Wed for those on their commute.

Currently 34 here in G'ville.

[tpweather]

Looks like the next week we have the forecast down and really the only concerns is how much snow we get early Tuesday morning before we warm up and then again can we get 1/2 inch here or there with snow showers Wed-Thurs period. No doubt some really cold air Fri-Sun and then the warm up begins. Still believe the models are not quite there with a storm though the gfs does show one around Thanksgiving. Going to give it several more days and see if the models have a system a few days earlier. After Thanksgiving I am expecting a milder period to arrive and spend sometime in the USA. I believe the AO will go positive during this time which in the long term is good but the last week of November into early December should be mild and wet. We need the AO to go positive for a period to build up some really cold air as we start to see temps in the arctic area getting in the -40 - -50 range and maybe a little colder. This is common and hopefully as we get into the middle of December we have warming in the atmosphere to help in delivering that cold southward. Of course if we get the PV to split we have to see if the cold heads this way or ends up in Europe or Asia. Sometimes it splits and all areas get colder.

[tron777]

Tim, I am seeing a cold front for sometime around the Thanksgiving Day time period. Since it's a milder pattern all rain of course by then. MJO is in the neutral circle now as of 11/11 so we'll see in a few days where it re-emerges. That will help determine how long the mild pattern lasts. Models are everywhere from the Aussie model keeping it in the COD for the foreseeable future. GEFS says, 5, 6, 7 by late Nov and into weak 8 by early Dec. Euro gets it back into 7 then it dies into the neutral circle. OP GFS gets it strong into 7 so probably into 8 in early Dec if the model ran out farther. So we need to see how the MJO looks by Thanksgiving to really have a clearer picture in the very long term. So for now, a little snow and rain and mainly cold this week then we warm up as we approach Thanksgiving and get some rain maybe some t-storms too. Then what happens after that? I've seen gradient patterns, and dry and cold patterns on models so I have low confidence beyond Thanksgiving at this time and this is mainly due to the uncertainty in the MJO.

[tpweather]

Tim, I am seeing a cold front for sometime around the Thanksgiving Day time period. Since it's a milder pattern all rain of course by then. MJO is in the neutral circle now as of 11/11 so we'll see in a few days where it re-emerges. That will help determine how long the mild pattern lasts. Models are everywhere from the Aussie model keeping it in the COD for the foreseeable future. GEFS says, 5, 6, 7 by late Nov and into weak 8 by early Dec. Euro gets it back into 7 then it dies into the neutral circle. OP GFS gets it strong into 7 so probably into 8 in early Dec if the model ran out farther. So we need to see how the MJO looks by Thanksgiving to really have a clearer picture in the very long term. So for now, a little snow and rain and mainly cold this week then we warm up as we approach Thanksgiving and get some rain maybe some t-storms too. Then what happens after that? I've seen gradient patterns, and dry and cold patterns on models so I have low confidence beyond Thanksgiving at this time and this is mainly due to the uncertainty in the MJO.

Great Post Les and my thought is the MJO may just be in that phase 5 or 6 for a period of time and while this happens the AO gets positive. If the gfs is correct about the mjo then we will turn cold quicker then I expect. I also wonder if we see a quicker end to the La Nina which could really put some questions into this winter. For the upcoming week I would love to see another .8 to get us up to 2 inches for the season which for us is a nice start to the snowfall total this winter.

[tpweather]

The good thing about the mjo forecast is none are showing it going into phase 3 or 4. Once we get into Dec phase 7,8 and 1 are really good in terms of winter weather for us locally. If the mjo were to go in phase 3 or 4 it usually takes time to work around and bring us some decent winter weather. So even if it goes into phase 5 or 6 we should in a period of time move into the better phases. Could it stall in phase 5 or 6 and yes which again would delay colder weather but we will deal with that once we see which phase the mjo is headed.

[tron777]

Tim, I am seeing a cold front for sometime around the Thanksgiving Day time period. Since it's a milder pattern all rain of course by then. MJO is in the neutral circle now as of 11/11 so we'll see in a few days where it re-emerges. That will help determine how long the mild pattern lasts. Models are everywhere from the Aussie model keeping it in the COD for the foreseeable future. GEFS says, 5, 6, 7 by late Nov and into weak 8 by early Dec. Euro gets it back into 7 then it dies into the neutral circle. OP GFS gets it strong into 7 so probably into 8 in early Dec if the model ran out farther. So we need to see how the MJO looks by Thanksgiving to really have a clearer picture in the very long term. So for now, a little snow and rain and mainly cold this week then we warm up as we approach Thanksgiving and get some rain maybe some t-storms too. Then what happens after that? I've seen gradient patterns, and dry and cold patterns on models so I have low confidence beyond Thanksgiving at this time and this is mainly due to the uncertainty in the MJO.

Great Post Les and my thought is the MJO may just be in that phase 5 or 6 for a period of time and while this happens the AO gets positive. If the gfs is correct about the mjo then we will turn cold quicker then I expect. I also wonder if we see a quicker end to the La Nina which could really put some questions into this winter. For the upcoming week I would love to see another .8 to get us up to 2 inches for the season which for us is a nice start to the snowfall total this winter.

IMO, the quicker the Nina weakens the better, but I don't see that happening until December. But we'll see. Worth watching as always. We've pretty much already received a months worth of snow for Nov. So if we can get to 2", we'll go into December maybe slightly above avg. which would work for me!

[tron777]

The good thing about the mjo forecast is none are showing it going into phase 3 or 4. Once we get into Dec phase 7,8 and 1 are really good in terms of winter weather for us locally. If the mjo were to go in phase 3 or 4 it usually takes time to work around and bring us some decent winter weather. So even if it goes into phase 5 or 6 we should in a period of time move into the better phases. Could it stall in phase 5 or 6 and yes which again would delay colder weather but we will deal with that once we see which phase the mjo is headed.

I agree. This December should not be as insanely mild as last year's.

[airwolf76]

wow hate seeing that much snow fall in November . hopefully this is just a fluke and we get back to normal fall conditions

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Sunny and the mid 40s today. This will be the warmest and nicest day we see over the next 7. Snow moves in after midnight. Watch for slick spots for the Tues AM commute esp North and West of Cincy. Snow will change to rain from SW to NE as the day goes on and any snow or rain will end sometime in the afternoon hours. Accumulation wise, probably like the last event. If the precip rate is light, not much. If it's heavier, there could be a few slick spots esp on bridges and overpasses. This system is pretty much the highlight of the week. Beyond this a few flurries possible Wed and Thurs but not everyone will see them. The usual lake effect snow showers will be occurring along with a weak disturbance moving thru.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. Several thoughts this morning so I will be everywhere with this post. First the system overnight through Tuesday. A small sample so far this year but the trend is to have these smaller systems stronger than what the models show. Saying that I believe we are not in the correct area to get any heavier snowfall so less than an inch locally and be careful because we could have an hour or two where the snow changes to rain and temps near of slightly below 32. Still the roads are rather warm but always nice to be aware especially on bridges and overpasses.

Tuesday night through Thursday we can have a few rounds of snow flurries and snow showers so at times a small accumulation is possible. So by the end of the week I can see 1 inch possible. One note the system heading this way may overproduce west of here and would not be surprised somebody in Illinois could get into that 2-4 inch range tonight and early Tuesday.

Friday-Sunday remains on target with some really cold air for mid-November and maybe Friday or Saturday where we don't get above 30 for a high.Lows can fall to 15 degrees or so but if somehow we have a little snow on the ground may be closer to 10.

Next week and still watching how this develops. Will a storm develop earlier than models show and still believe that is possible but give it a few more days. Longer term models seem to have a brief warm-up and then a return to colder air. I am not sold on this and we know models put in to much of what the current conditions are and since we are cold at the moment I believe the models are to cold.

Another reason is the arctic regions are getting their normally cold period as we could see -50 or below in northern Canada later this week into next week but even more important is the Siberia is looking at -60 - -75 next week which again is not unheard of but shows the coldest air may be on that side of the globe for at least a brief period. Then we see if the PV which will be rather strong can get disrupted and if so where does the cold air go. Way to early and we know models can be to quick on the PV breaking down but still believe starting in week two something we need to pay attention too.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim and as usual, another wonderful post from you! I think we could pull off an inch total when you add up Mon night thru Thurs combined. Wouldn't surprise me at all. Bottom line is the better amounts will be west of us as you said. Then... concerning your thoughts on the PV, I've been hearing a lot of talk on a PV split coming up which could mean a colder December, which has been our thoughts even before this news broke. This is good news but it doesn't guarantee anything. To me, the MJO still needs to cooperate to lock me into a cold and snowy pattern. Anyway, we shall see on the longer term. Your thoughts are great as are mine, just a wait and see thing.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les. Really at the end of the day what is controlling the weather. At the moment the negative epo has delivered the cold weather over much of the USA. What happens next week and what will control the weather. The mjo and where will it be and how strong can determine the weather. The AO looks to go positive but how strong is still up in the air. Over the years a strong phase of the mjo will trump just about anything. I am just not sure how strong of whatever phase we are in will be the main player. By late this week I believe we will get a better handle on how the next phase of the mjo and how strong the AO is and this will help in getting a better handle of the weather for the last 10 days of November and first 10 days of December.

[tron777]

Great Post Les. Really at the end of the day what is controlling the weather. At the moment the negative epo has delivered the cold weather over much of the USA. What happens next week and what will control the weather. The mjo and where will it be and how strong can determine the weather. The AO looks to go positive but how strong is still up in the air. Over the years a strong phase of the mjo will trump just about anything. I am just not sure how strong of whatever phase we are in will be the main player. By late this week I believe we will get a better handle on how the next phase of the mjo and how strong the AO is and this will help in getting a better handle of the weather for the last 10 days of November and first 10 days of December.

Thanks Tim... our posts seem to be meshing well today. The current cold pattern is certainly being driven by a -EPO (poleward Aleutian ridge in this case) to dump the cold air into Canada. MJO in Phase 8 helped to trigger this change on the Pacific side and Martin with the N ATL tropics, helped to induce a period of -NAO (or more neutral anyway) which was also a factor, Then once Nicole passed and the tropics quieted down, the cold was able to charge in! Things will moderate Thanksgiving week most certainly and the question for me is... how long does it last and will the MJO get back towards 8 for early December? That's what I am watching attm which is more important to me then anything at this time. I'm trying to see if the MJO is going to repeat itself this winter, like what region is the tropical forcing going to be most concentrated in? That will be the dominant winter pattern in my opinion.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les. Really at the end of the day what is controlling the weather. At the moment the negative epo has delivered the cold weather over much of the USA. What happens next week and what will control the weather. The mjo and where will it be and how strong can determine the weather. The AO looks to go positive but how strong is still up in the air. Over the years a strong phase of the mjo will trump just about anything. I am just not sure how strong of whatever phase we are in will be the main player. By late this week I believe we will get a better handle on how the next phase of the mjo and how strong the AO is and this will help in getting a better handle of the weather for the last 10 days of November and first 10 days of December.

Thanks Tim... our posts seem to be meshing well today. The current cold pattern is certainly being driven by a -EPO (poleward Aleutian ridge in this case) to dump the cold air into Canada. MJO in Phase 8 helped to trigger this change on the Pacific side and Martin with the N ATL tropics, helped to induce a period of -NAO (or more neutral anyway) which was also a factor, Then once Nicole passed and the tropics quieted down, the cold was able to charge in! Things will moderate Thanksgiving week most certainly and the question for me is... how long does it last and will the MJO get back towards 8 for early December? That's what I am watching attm which is more important to me then anything at this time. I'm trying to see if the MJO is going to repeat itself this winter, like what region is the tropical forcing going to be most concentrated in? That will be the dominant winter pattern in my opinion.

The most important part of your post is what region is the tropical forcing going to be most concentrated in. We have seen where it has set up in phases 4-6 and though cold air was in Canada and the western USA we could not get the cold to make much inroads.

[tpweather]

Pretty much what we thought so far, Made it to #3 warmest first 10 days of Nov.

Screenshot_20221111-062001_Chrome.jpg

Hey Bgoney, where did you this info. Love to see what the middle 10 days of November will turn out in terms of cold weather. Saying that does this give us any clues of the upcoming weather where we go back and forth between really warm and really cold. Not sure about that but will watch the trends as always.

[tron777]

The most important part of your post is what region is the tropical forcing going to be most concentrated in. We have seen where it has set up in phases 4-6 and though cold air was in Canada and the western USA we could not get the cold to make much inroads.

That's correct Tim... where the most dominant region of the tropical forcing occurs is important. If the MJO keeps going thru Phases 4-6 all the time, then you get a repeat of last December. Very mild. But if we can stay more often towards Phases 7 and esp 8, 1, etc etc, then we should see continued arctic cold air attacks. That's kind of my current thinking right now.