November 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Great Posts Les,the first post is perfect and nothing to add. The second post and the chances of the system to become a hurricane just shows you how much warm water is further north at this time of year. This is both the atlantic and pacific.

Second half of Nov going into December I think is going to get rather interesting at some point. I envision (if everything works out as discussed) a split jet stream flow where you have the polar jet coming in diving SE from Montana and into the Plains then rolling up the OV / Apps / East Coast areas. Meantime, the subtropical jet provides upper lows coming into S CA and the Baja areas that have the potential to phase in to create bigger and more moisture laden storms. Heavy rain, ice, and snow producing systems would all be on the table based on the storm track of each system (thru the OV, Apps, or East Coast). It'll be interesting to see how this all evolves. Just because the EPO goes negative, the cold can still go into the West with a -PNA but I think the STJ will undercut a +PNA / -EPO combination and with the -AO we discussed, the cold air can get involved. I can't tell you if we are on the snow or rain side of any system this far away, so we're just discussing the overall 500 MB pattern and nothing more.

Just to add Les and I believe the NAO is going to be negative several times this season. Blocking in Greenland can keep the coldest air just to the east of us but how it shows up will decide that. Plus when you get these negative NAO's you tend to get there lows that sit in southern Canada and though you may not get the big storm with that you have many days with snow showers and wind

[tron777]

Great Posts Les,the first post is perfect and nothing to add. The second post and the chances of the system to become a hurricane just shows you how much warm water is further north at this time of year. This is both the atlantic and pacific.

Second half of Nov going into December I think is going to get rather interesting at some point. I envision (if everything works out as discussed) a split jet stream flow where you have the polar jet coming in diving SE from Montana and into the Plains then rolling up the OV / Apps / East Coast areas. Meantime, the subtropical jet provides upper lows coming into S CA and the Baja areas that have the potential to phase in to create bigger and more moisture laden storms. Heavy rain, ice, and snow producing systems would all be on the table based on the storm track of each system (thru the OV, Apps, or East Coast). It'll be interesting to see how this all evolves. Just because the EPO goes negative, the cold can still go into the West with a -PNA but I think the STJ will undercut a +PNA / -EPO combination and with the -AO we discussed, the cold air can get involved. I can't tell you if we are on the snow or rain side of any system this far away, so we're just discussing the overall 500 MB pattern and nothing more.

Just to add Les and I believe the NAO is going to be negative several times this season. Blocking in Greenland can keep the coldest air just to the east of us but how it shows up will decide that. Plus when you get these negative NAO's you tend to get there lows that sit in southern Canada and though you may not get the big storm with that you have many days with snow showers and wind

And with a Nina, the northern jet is typically more dominant, so a clipper pattern would work for me. Been ages since we've seen one.

[tpweather]

I agree Les and when I did my prediction for snowfall this season I added about 3-5 inches because I thought we would see a few more clippers this season. I also put into equation of 2 bigger storms and reason being is the 3rd year of a La Nina usually brings a little more snow than the 2 previous years plus you get less big storms but the 2 you get could be here with colder air. Again predicting snow is always tough.

[tron777]

I agree Les and when I did my prediction for snowfall this season I added about 3-5 inches because I thought we would see a few more clippers this season. I also put into equation of 2 bigger storms and reason being is the 3rd year of a La Nina usually brings a little more snow than the 2 previous years plus you get less big storms but the 2 you get could be here with colder air. Again predicting snow is always tough.

Your reasoning looks good, just have to see what happens. You def need a lot of luck. We've cashed in on crappy patterns just as much as missing out in a good pattern. We will have both this winter, we always do, but hopefully more cashes then swings and misses.

[tron777]

If we can lose the clouds tonight, fog will be an issue again in the morning.

...Patchy dense fog expected to reduce visibilities late tonight
to Thursday morning...

Fog is expected to form tonight under clearing skies and light
winds. The fog may become dense in spots, reducing visibility to
under a half mile in some locations. Please remain alert for the
reduced visibilities and adjust your driving accordingly. The fog
is forecast to dissipate by late morning Thursday as temperatures
and winds increase.

[tron777]

We've got a short term forecast change here. Front keeps speeding up on models so now, rain showers are possible during the day on Sat ending Sun morning in the East. So most of Sun is now dry. Breezy on Sat with winds to 40 possible. Better for the Bengals game if anyone is going. Mild weekend in the 60s to perhaps L70s depending on cloud and rain coverage.

No changes there after. Front washes out. Election Day looks great so VOTE please!!! Tues Nov 8th. Then, we track the next front trying to break thru around Veteran's Day (give or take).

[Bgoney]

Great reads today fellers, only thing I'll say is there will be a cool down near mid month, but I don't think it's anything out of the ordinary cool down, atm. It might feel like it has some bite only because we'll have been so far above normal for a while. Also , agree with an occurrence of a - NAO from time to time this winter , but I think it will be hard to come by until the LaNina starts to wane, so , I think the odds of seeing a substantial -NAO in November aren't to good

[tron777]

Great reads today fellers, only thing I'll say is there will be a cool down near mid month, but I don't think it's anything out of the ordinary cool down, atm. It might feel like it has some bite only because we'll have been so far above normal for a while. Also , agree with an occurrence of a - NAO from time to time this winter , but I think it will be hard to come by until the LaNina starts to wane, so , I think the odds of seeing a substantial -NAO in November aren't to good

I think the hurricane will help get the -NAO going. Big storms can do that.... Alter the hemispheric pattern and the Scand. ridging pushing in as well should also help with getting the AO negative. The -EPO seems to be continuing on the guidance so it's not a phantom yet. Signs of a cold shot are coming no doubt. It is probably going to be a step down process as it usually is and make take until December to be more sustainable. Wouldn't surprise me in the least. The Nina SHOULD (I hope lol) begin to weaken in December. I keep hearing talk of it already weakening but we have proven that hasn't yet happened. Been the opposite. It's why we are mild right now.

[tron777]

A Froggy morning as expected with a dense fog advisory issued for our northern counties until 11am. We should be able to hit the 70s unless the fog keeps your local into the 60s later today. A wonderful Friday if you don't mind some breezy conditions then windy on Sat with some rain showers. Still going with a 1/2" West 1/4" for CVG then lesser amounts East. Sunday is nice for the Bengals game. 70s continue for the first half or so of next week as well until we see the timing of that next front towards the end of next week. Still looking at an above normal temp pattern easily for the next 7-10 days.

[tron777]

I like where our discussion was headed yesterday and last night. A cold shot of air looks to be coming around mid month. Nothing overly cold but cold enough for flakes should any moisture be present. We'll see. Main point is... that the flip to winter is going to be a step down approach. We should start to see more cold attacks come in from the NW. Hopefully, things will line up so that the cold has some staying power later this month and into December. That's the tricky part of course. So basically, this first incoming cold shot around mid month will probably be transient. But we won't have a week of 70s again. Maybe a 3 day period of above normal readings... then the next front. The above normal days should start getting to be fewer for the second half of Nov.

[Bgoney]

Our fall mini summer and lack of a hard freeze (mid 20s) have been great for the fall garden veggies , still going strong

[tron777]

Our fall mini summer and lack of a hard freeze (mid 20s) have been great for the fall garden veggies , still going strong

Yeah... new grass seed is doing fine since we've had some rain finally... enough to get it sprouted and to keep it going anyway,. Spinach looking nice and hearty! Hope the cold does come because I don't want it to get any bigger. It's perfect about 2" tall right now.

[tpweather]

Not liking what I see for next week in Hilton Head. If that system pans out then the CMC will have scored having this system show up

[tron777]

Not liking what I see for next week in Hilton Head. If that system pans out then the CMC will have scored having this system show up

I can get model text data for HXD - Hilton Head Airport. GFS looks pretty tough for Golf Tues - Thurs with even some lingering showers Friday. Dry after that. The Euro has action Wed and Thurs only. So still some model differences but overall, it's not pretty I'm afraid. Have plenty of beer ready for Plan B.

[tron777]

No surprises here....

[Bgoney]

Should have no problem making top 5 warmest first 10 days.

Screenshot_20221103-130048_Chrome.jpg

[tpweather]

Should have no problem making top 5 warmest first 10 days.



Screenshot_20221103-130048_Chrome.jpg

I agree with the warm nights very likely top 5.

[tron777]

Looking at that list... It's funny how warm Nov was in 1977 then when it came, it CAME! That was a weak Nino coming off of a triple dip Nina so maybe next winter??? Anyway... let's see what this winter has to offer first. Point is, the warmth of the first half has no bearing on how the rest of the winter will go.

[tron777]

Timing of the rain's arrival on Sat is narrowing... I like 11am to 2pm at this time. Exiting the area from west to east by midnight or so Sat night / Sun morning. Amounts... no changes. 1/2" West to less then a 0.25" East. About like the same systems we keep getting for the most part.

[tpweather]

Looking at that list... It's funny how warm Nov was in 1977 then when it came, it CAME! That was a weak Nino coming off of a triple dip Nina so maybe next winter??? Anyway... let's see what this winter has to offer first. Point is, the warmth of the first half has no bearing on how the rest of the winter will go.

Les I have no problem with the warmth and if we were in a medium to strong El Nino I would worry but Mother Nature as always will balance things out and though many times that balancing act can be weeks,months or even years in some instances I believe this warmth has plenty to do with the tropics sort giving us a last minute grasp and once they are done that should leave the door open for some colder weather.

[tron777]

Looking at that list... It's funny how warm Nov was in 1977 then when it came, it CAME! That was a weak Nino coming off of a triple dip Nina so maybe next winter??? Anyway... let's see what this winter has to offer first. Point is, the warmth of the first half has no bearing on how the rest of the winter will go.

Les I have no problem with the warmth and if we were in a medium to strong El Nino I would worry but Mother Nature as always will balance things out and though many times that balancing act can be weeks,months or even years in some instances I believe this warmth has plenty to do with the tropics sort giving us a last minute grasp and once they are done that should leave the door open for some colder weather.

Totally agree with this statement! That's exactly the issue right now plus the MJO / -PNA as well are contributing factors.

[Bgoney]

In the Not Ready for Prime Time Weather News, Australia has been in the deep freeze with record snows and here's another yawner, it snowed in parts of Brazil for the first time in over 100 years. Back to the "real" news.

[young pup]

Finally got my first round of leaf work done on all clients. Whew that first leaf drop was heavy. Hoping for an easier go this next time around. Very foggy again this am which had water droplets falling from leaves. It almost sounded like it was raining at one point. Pretty crazy.

[tron777]

Records are in the U70s to L80s this time of year at CVG so even with low to mid 70s in the upcoming 7 day forecast, I don't expect any records to fall. 71 at CVG today, 73 here. A touch of fog, dense in the valleys tomorrow morning then sunny and 75 easy for most folks. Enjoy before the wind and showers come Sat. The back to awesome Sun thru perhaps Thurs of next week. Then I think we get two fronts. The first by Fri then another by Monday of the following week (11/14) and that is when the first shot of cold air comes in as est per current guidance. Just a heads up for folks needing to get things done.

[tron777]

Here is a new This Week in Weather Video from DT talking about the pattern change after 11/14. Something good to watch while having coffee this morning.