November 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Good Evening,

I wanted to go ahead and get our next monthly thread going since things are already looking interesting in the next couple of weeks. Now before we begin, let me re-state my stance on November. I think things become more active. We do stay milder then avg overall thru mid month then I think we change at some point in the second half to a colder pattern. But with that stated, bouts of cold can still occur from time to time even in a mild pattern. The cold shots are just transient. I think that is what might be coming as we get into Nov a ways...

The GFS lately has been showing a hurricane working into the Caribbean / Gulf Days 10 to 15. Meanwhile, an approaching Arctic front is moving in from the NW with an ETA of 11/7. Can we get a big storm out of this set up? It will depend on if the pieces can come together at the right time. We could get a cold frontal passage and that's it. The arctic front maybe is a GFS mirage? Timing can be off for us (East Coast threat?) OR nothing for anyone at all. Does this tropical system even develop and become a hurricane?

So we'll see what happens here. This set up maybe the first challenge we have for the last month of Met Fall. Is the GFS on drugs or do we have something to track as it sometimes can sniff out big storms. NOTE: We are not necessarily talking about a snow storm, but that result would be the ultimate solution for this snow starved weenie.

[Bgoney]

Yea I think the first half of Nov. Temps average well above normal. Not impressed atm with drought alleviating rains over same period as the best rains look to remain to our west. The Aleutian/GOA ridge and downstream western trough should dominate this period. Great news for the west.

[tpweather]

I agree that the first half of November looks milder than normal and I can see 1-2 degrees at this point. No problem as October is going down as well below normal temp wise and much to do with overnight lows which we often see in the summer where overnights lows are high but daytime highs near normal. Getting plenty of snow in central and southern parts of Canada over the next few weeks is wonderful as northern Canada is starting to see the plunge into some very cold air. Still warm waters off the pacific northwest and will this continue is a key into the early winter forecast. Alaska which got off to a mild start will turn colder and they look to be about average over the next few weeks.

Concerning tropical activity and again always take with a grain of salt the gfs and especially in early November.

[tron777]

Tim, we should all probably take the GFS with a huge grain of salt anyway! But things are going along as planned IMO. Nothing earth shattering is happening that has surprised us. We've been watching the snow cover building / cold air and also La Nina's progression which rages on. No shock to anyone here. MJO did help induce the cold pattern we had (+PNA) and now it's driving the -PNA for a bit. We'll see how much MJO influence we have as time goes on as winter approaches.

[Bgoney]

Hmm, what do you guys think about the Typhoon near Japan.? Looks like it gets absorbed in the flow and turns into another strong low in the Bering Sea. Downstream effect could be it pumps the ridge up north of Hawaii and continues the troughing over the west

[tpweather]

Hmm, what do you guys think about the Typhoon near Japan.? Looks like it gets absorbed in the flow and turns into another strong low in the Bering Sea. Downstream effect could be it pumps the ridge up north of Hawaii and continues the troughing over the west

I love when we see these late season Typhoon's in the pacific. You make a great point about how a ridge will probably pump up and if its directly north of Hawaii then that usually leads to troughs in the west and more ridging in our area. If that ridge pops up more towards the mainland USA then this can also lead to ridging along the west coast and a trough in the central and eastern USA. These are fun to watch and also provides some clues of how the next several weeks may turn out. At this point the first half of November for the most part looks to be mild and hopefully turning wet by the second week but these bigger systems like a Typhoon can cause the pattern to turn out somewhat different but only time will tell.

[tron777]

I agree with you both. Makes sense with wave 93W now at a high chance for development slowly moving towards the Philippines. That should be the wave that forms into said Typhoon. Anyway, downstream impacts make perfect sense to reinforce the -PNA and it goes along with the MJO being stalled in Phase 6 or 7 as well. Again... we can see a cold shot or two between now and then but the first half of the month at the very least will skew milder then normal. Rain TBD but we'll have some nice November weather probably under the ridging at times too. Should give us time for more yard clean up which is good. So we'll say Week 3, if not after Turkey Day for said change to winter. Only thing I am worried about is the MJO ruining things as I kind of touched on in the winter thoughts thread last night.

[Bgoney]

I agree with you both. Makes sense with wave 93W now at a high chance for development slowly moving towards the Philippines. That should be the wave that forms into said Typhoon. Anyway, downstream impacts make perfect sense to reinforce the -PNA and it goes along with the MJO being stalled in Phase 6 or 7 as well. Again... we can see a cold shot or two between now and then but the first half of the month at the very least will skew milder then normal. Rain TBD but we'll have some nice November weather probably under the ridging at times too. Should give us time for more yard clean up which is good. So we'll say Week 3, if not after Turkey Day for said change to winter. Only thing I am worried about is the MJO ruining things as I kind of touched on in the winter thoughts thread last night.

Yea , we talked quite a while back that once the MJO entered the West pac it would struggle or stall due to the colder waters and Easterlies. The precip modeled over the next 1-2 weeks with the higher amounts to our west fit like a glove with phase 6-7

[tron777]

I agree with you both. Makes sense with wave 93W now at a high chance for development slowly moving towards the Philippines. That should be the wave that forms into said Typhoon. Anyway, downstream impacts make perfect sense to reinforce the -PNA and it goes along with the MJO being stalled in Phase 6 or 7 as well. Again... we can see a cold shot or two between now and then but the first half of the month at the very least will skew milder then normal. Rain TBD but we'll have some nice November weather probably under the ridging at times too. Should give us time for more yard clean up which is good. So we'll say Week 3, if not after Turkey Day for said change to winter. Only thing I am worried about is the MJO ruining things as I kind of touched on in the winter thoughts thread last night.

Yea , we talked quite a while back that once the MJO entered the West pac it would struggle or stall due to the colder waters and Easterlies. The precip modeled over the next 1-2 weeks with the higher amounts to our west fit like a glove with phase 6-7

It sure does! Looks like we'll have this issue for now like we saw last winter. Another Nina so not a shock, but I'm really hoping for a different outcome this winter for once. I think we all are. At least it's early and we know the next few weeks are completely fine in the mild dept.

[winterstormjoe]

The 12z GFS seems to be getting warmer over the next two weeks with the brief cold shots that it was showing are becoming a distant memory. Not much rainfall either as discussed on this forum.

[tpweather]

The 12z GFS seems to be getting warmer over the next two weeks with the brief cold shots that it was showing are becoming a distant memory. Not much rainfall either as discussed on this forum.

Hey Joe and glad to see you posting. The CMC still has those cold shots but like you mentioned the GFS is a dryer and milder run. We know the next system Sunday and Monday will be similar to the current system in terms of rainfall and 1/2 inch looks good this far out. I am leaning towards the latest gfs run though it could be one of those where we get another system late next week that sort of sideswipes us with some rain and cooler air for a few days but then we become mild once again. That is pretty much what the CMC is throwing out there and not impossible by any means but I will go with a dry and mild period after next Monday but then I would expect more rainfall to enter the picture in week two.

[winterstormjoe]

The 12z GFS seems to be getting warmer over the next two weeks with the brief cold shots that it was showing are becoming a distant memory. Not much rainfall either as discussed on this forum.

Hey Joe and glad to see you posting. The CMC still has those cold shots but like you mentioned the GFS is a dryer and milder run. We know the next system Sunday and Monday will be similar to the current system in terms of rainfall and 1/2 inch looks good this far out. I am leaning towards the latest gfs run though it could be one of those where we get another system late next week that sort of sideswipes us with some rain and cooler air for a few days but then we become mild once again. That is pretty much what the CMC is throwing out there and not impossible by any means but I will go with a dry and mild period after next Monday but then I would expect more rainfall to enter the picture in week two.

Hey Tim, I'll get more active on here as winter approaches...I was hoping last nights rains would have finished off the leaves falling but that didn't happen. Hopefully I can finish raking before Thanksgiving as last year is was in early December especially those pesky pine needles that accumulate over 3 inches in my front yard and driveway.

[tron777]

The 12z GFS seems to be getting warmer over the next two weeks with the brief cold shots that it was showing are becoming a distant memory. Not much rainfall either as discussed on this forum.

Hey Joe and glad to see you posting. The CMC still has those cold shots but like you mentioned the GFS is a dryer and milder run. We know the next system Sunday and Monday will be similar to the current system in terms of rainfall and 1/2 inch looks good this far out. I am leaning towards the latest gfs run though it could be one of those where we get another system late next week that sort of sideswipes us with some rain and cooler air for a few days but then we become mild once again. That is pretty much what the CMC is throwing out there and not impossible by any means but I will go with a dry and mild period after next Monday but then I would expect more rainfall to enter the picture in week two.

Hey Tim, I'll get more active on here as winter approaches...I was hoping last nights rains would have finished off the leaves falling but that didn't happen. Hopefully I can finish raking before Thanksgiving as last year is was in early December especially those pesky pine needles that accumulate over 3 inches in my front yard and driveway.

Gents,

Unfortunately, the GFS was wrong about the cold. The MJO has stalled in 6/7 which are warmer phases. Until we see something change there, this looks to be the upcoming pattern for the next 2-3 weeks. Mild overall, some rain, but not a boatload or anything and a continuation of some decent weather! Soak it up and get things done (or play Golf like Tim) is all I can say. Enjoy it while you can.

I adjusted my 1st snowfall call for the contest as a result. This is to all of you. Please enter by 10/31 at 12am... If you've already entered and need to edit your guess, please do so! You have time.

[tpweather]

Les we were never pulled in by the cold the gfs had for early November. I like when its mild in early November

[tron777]

Les we were never pulled in by the cold the gfs had for early November. I like when its mild in early November

Me too actually. I want to get things done before winter first off. Second, some Nina's are known to flip hard and when they do, it's pretty awesome. Hopefully this will be one of those times and not like last December. SST's are def different in the ocean as compared to last winter so I'd expect a different outcome this year then the second warmest December on record, which we had last year with that massive -PNA.

I would love a December 2010 re-do. Snowiest on record for CVG with I believe 16.7"... something like that. That winter as a whole was pretty good. 2000-2001 was another winter that started early. Dec of 2000 was very cold. Dec 1989 - coldest on record at CVG with -20s a few nights and a nice 7" snow storm to boot. 1995-1996 was a good example of a mild 1st half of Nov, and cold / snowy 2nd half. That whole winter was awesome for OV and East Coast. So all Nina's aren't clunkers. We've just seen far too many slow starters period in the last decade plus regardless of ENSO state.

[tpweather]

Les we were never pulled in by the cold the gfs had for early November. I like when its mild in early November

Me too actually. I want to get things done before winter first off. Second, some Nina's are known to flip hard and when they do, it's pretty awesome. Hopefully this will be one of those times and not like last December. SST's are def different in the ocean as compared to last winter so I'd expect a different outcome this year then the second warmest December on record, which we had last year with that massive -PNA.

I would love a December 2010 re-do. Snowiest on record for CVG with I believe 16.7"... something like that. That winter as a whole was pretty good. 2000-2001 was another winter that started early. Dec of 2000 was very cold. Dec 1989 - coldest on record at CVG with -20s a few nights and a nice 7" snow storm to boot. 1995-1996 was a good example of a mild 1st half of Nov, and cold / snowy 2nd half. That whole winter was awesome for OV and East Coast. So all Nina's aren't clunkers. We've just seen far too many slow starters period in the last decade plus regardless of ENSO state.

Great Post Les, wonderful info and lets hope for that quick start. I know one period we had 3 La Nina's in a row and that was 73-74,74-75,75-76. Those were not very good years in terms of cold and snow though I believe by early 76 things were starting to turn around and of course we know how the remaining of the 70's turned out. Of course so many different factors with each La Nina and how strong does it get or does it weaken quickly plus will if be the main driver of the weather this season. I just believe Mother Nature gave us a clue and that is winter will start early this season and with past La Nina's December can be very nice in terms of winter weather.

[tron777]

Les we were never pulled in by the cold the gfs had for early November. I like when its mild in early November

Me too actually. I want to get things done before winter first off. Second, some Nina's are known to flip hard and when they do, it's pretty awesome. Hopefully this will be one of those times and not like last December. SST's are def different in the ocean as compared to last winter so I'd expect a different outcome this year then the second warmest December on record, which we had last year with that massive -PNA.

I would love a December 2010 re-do. Snowiest on record for CVG with I believe 16.7"... something like that. That winter as a whole was pretty good. 2000-2001 was another winter that started early. Dec of 2000 was very cold. Dec 1989 - coldest on record at CVG with -20s a few nights and a nice 7" snow storm to boot. 1995-1996 was a good example of a mild 1st half of Nov, and cold / snowy 2nd half. That whole winter was awesome for OV and East Coast. So all Nina's aren't clunkers. We've just seen far too many slow starters period in the last decade plus regardless of ENSO state.

Great Post Les, wonderful info and lets hope for that quick start. I know one period we had 3 La Nina's in a row and that was 73-74,74-75,75-76. Those were not very good years in terms of cold and snow though I believe by early 76 things were starting to turn around and of course we know how the remaining of the 70's turned out. Of course so many different factors with each La Nina and how strong does it get or does it weaken quickly plus will if be the main driver of the weather this season. I just believe Mother Nature gave us a clue and that is winter will start early this season and with past La Nina's December can be very nice in terms of winter weather.

This is why many pro's are going with a Modiki El Nino next winter and drooling over big time cold and snow. We will be coming out of a triple Dip Nina to boot like the 1970s. We'll worry about that then. I'm more concerned about the MJO currently and how this winter will go.

[tron777]

Right now guys, the first week of November looks rather uneventful with mild weather and small chances for rain, some wind. But no big temp drops or classic fall storm systems. While a cool shot of air is possible thereafter, I think it'll be transient with another trough coming into the west coast. It's not ready yet. We need a good re-shuffling of the 500 MB pattern. -PNA / SE ridge. Nice for the drought stricken west to build snow pack in the mountains and valley rains to fill bodies of water. They need it and they'll get it for a while. Thinking 2-3 weeks right now for my best guess.

Right now, the Euro Monthly / BOMM (Aussie Model) and other various MJO models, show it stuck in 6/7 as we've discussed perhaps until Thanksgiving. You can check 'em out here.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml


Kyle MacRitchie's Experimental MJO has it dying in 6 and not re-emerging anywhere or doing much of anything.

realtimemjo.png

I wish I had better thoughts for November for snow lovers but it's not in the cards. I keep hearing talk of "...after Thanksgiving we'll see a rapid flip! It'll be a December to Remember...!" Well, hang on. No surprise to this forum and the people who read it. We've been tracking this Nina and MJO. This Nina IMO is not East based. It is basin wide and some pro forecasters outside of this forum have underestimated it. I mean look at the different ENSO regions and the below SST's. It is high end weak / low end moderate if you ask me and basin wide.

ssta_c.gif

Then, the current look at the Global SST Anomalies:

ssta.daily.current.png

Two thing that stick out like a sore thumb. The Nina, which is obvious. And the other, which Bgoney has brought up. The very warm water East of Japan. Could these two things work in tandem to produce the wrong Indian Ocean forcing? MJO stuck in 6/7? Is this all interconnected or related? I don't know. I'm not that smart!

[Bgoney]

Hmmm, I didn't know or I forgot the GFS is about to upgrade again

665438135_Screenshot_20221027-105721_SamsungNotes.thumb.jpg.f6292762808f57041a663e7bd3ff3c04.jpg

[tron777]

Hmmm, I didn't know or I forgot the GFS is about to upgrade again

Maybe the upgrade of the GFS will cause us to see more digital snow than usual come December?

[Bgoney]

Saw the EU weeklies, not a good look.

[tron777]

Saw the EU weeklies, not a good look.

I think winter is basically a no-show until Thanksgiving. At the very least, expect the -PNA to stick around until then.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and love seeing the talk about the longer term. I still believe a start to winter is early this season. So what does an early winter mean and I have always took the stance that the weekend after Thanksgiving as the most likely time winter will start early. November is always a bonus with winter weather but usually just a side show as milder days usually come back right away. Getting to winter we almost always look to the west to see if the Rockies,northern and central plains and upper mid-west are starting to get their share of cold and snow. This looks to be happening with the pattern shaping up nice for them to get much needed rain and snow. This should keep us rather mild the first two weeks of the month and maybe by the period of Nov8-10 we start to see more organized systems heading in this direction. Second half of November imo looks to be busy and hopefully we catch up more on rainfall and we are in the so called second rainy season.


Last year was so warm in December and I expect a big 180 this year and cold and hopefully some decent snows will occur. I very seldom look at long term models because they tend to put either to much cold or warmth depending on what the current conditions we are having. So why do I feel confident about this and believe blocking over Greenland this early season is key and we have seen this happen already this fall and one reason we have had a nice cool fall so far and patterns tend to repeat themselves over a period of time. Do I believe this is a winter that is cold and snowy from Dec-Mar and the answer is no but will go in more details in the winter weather discussion.

[tron777]

The pattern is shaping up much like we saw last December, then winter came in January. This year, November looks to be setting up to be the same way, so maybe by December, winter will be here? No two winters or La Nina's behave alike, but logically it makes sense. Too bad the chaos theory is anything but logical.

[tpweather]

Les I enjoy this time of year as we know so many folks like ourselves love to try and figure out what the upcoming winter will provide us. At this point we seem to be on different wavelengths but usually we come together the closer we get to December. Forecasts are easy to throw out but they are not easy when trying to predict a most likely outcome. We both have are ways of looking at the weather and both have imo become better forecasters by using the knowledge each of us hold. Yes we will both have periods where we can't miss a forecast and other times where we go down the tubes. I know sometimes I become this stubborn old man which sometimes works in my favor and other times not so much.