Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2022-2023

[tron777]

We've been seeing some good gains in the SST's in the North Pacific. Gulf of AK and off the West Coast of North America. You want to see the warmest SST's concentrated there going into winter. Hope the current looks continues to develop. IMO if correct, and we see the +PNA continue, the outcome is going to be vastly different then your typical Nina. A +PDO is not expected, but would be welcome if it came. Over the summer, the PDO was in the -1 and -2 ranges (still is) so it'll be interesting this Fall if it rises or not.

Yea I don't think there is any chance the PDO goes positive during the winter months with that huge chunk of warm water in the NP east of Japan

You're correct. You would typically like to see that area as being cold. It's on fire! The majority of the waters are very warm, minus that small area around the Aleutians, were we've had an Aleutian Low for a while (assisting with the +PNA pattern). So let's talk about this for a minute. Even if the actual index stays negative for the PDO, if those SST's remain very warm for the majority of the NPAC basin and esp near the West Coast of North America, then can we still get +PDO effects despite with the number says? It's early like usual. Check it again in a month from now sort of thing.

[tpweather]

We've been seeing some good gains in the SST's in the North Pacific. Gulf of AK and off the West Coast of North America. You want to see the warmest SST's concentrated there going into winter. Hope the current looks continues to develop. IMO if correct, and we see the +PNA continue, the outcome is going to be vastly different then your typical Nina. A +PDO is not expected, but would be welcome if it came. Over the summer, the PDO was in the -1 and -2 ranges (still is) so it'll be interesting this Fall if it rises or not.

Yea I don't think there is any chance the PDO goes positive during the winter months with that huge chunk of warm water in the NP east of Japan

You're correct. You would typically like to see that area as being cold. It's on fire! The majority of the waters are very warm, minus that small area around the Aleutians, were we've had an Aleutian Low for a while (assisting with the +PNA pattern). So let's talk about this for a minute. Even if the actual index stays negative for the PDO, if those SST's remain very warm for the majority of the NPAC basin and esp near the West Coast of North America, then can we still get +PDO effects despite with the number says? It's early like usual. Check it again in a month from now sort of thing.

Great Post guys. We have seen the waters before in the fall and they were warm and then several storms come into the northwest and the waters cool down quite a bit. This year the storms have ended up going north and west of there so the waters are very warm. I agree lets give it another month and see where we stand and of course this is only one part of the equation but usually can be a very important one.

[Bgoney]

Not sure what this is going to mean for winter effects, will have to do some research when time is available. The AMO index for September (NOAA/PSL version) came in at +0.66, the highest monthly value on record (1856-present).

[tron777]

Not sure what this is going to mean for winter effects, will have to do some research when time is available. The AMO index for September (NOAA/PSL version) came in at +0.66, the highest monthly value on record (1856-present).

Wow!!! That is very impressive. The Triple Dip Nina we had in the 1970s before those awesome weak Nino winters came, the AMO phase was very negative. The last triple Dip Nina in the late 1990s to 2000-2001 winter, the AMO was mainly positive, eventually falling to weakly negative readings by the time the triple dip was over.

A small sample size here for sure. I also need to spend more time to see if there is any correlation or not for the AMO. The sample size might be so small, that we may not find anything. Def agree with you, that more research is needed in this area.

[dce]

https://www.cfact.org/2022/10/13/how-gl ... ggeration/

Interesting article as to why we have seen the ocean temperatures so warm in recent years. Read and decide for yourself. Seems plausible. Hard to find what the truth actually is in times like these. I'm particularly referring to the topic of underwater volcanic activity as you scroll down a little from the top of this link.

[tron777]

https://www.cfact.org/2022/10/13/how-gl ... ggeration/

Interesting article as to why we have seen the ocean temperatures so warm in recent years. Read and decide for yourself. Seems plausible. Hard to find what the truth actually is in times like these. I'm particularly referring to the topic of underwater volcanic activity as you scroll down a little from the top of this link.

When that monster underwater volcano erupted back in January, a record amount of water vapor was injected into the stratosphere. I have no idea what the impacts from the Tonga eruption would be or when would we see the impacts? This winter? Next winter? I have a lot of questions here myself.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eru ... ratosphere

[Bgoney]

Well the predictions of a Mega hurricane season because of the warmer than normal Atlantic because of the use of fossil fuels were a complete bust. Although now I'm sure the reason it was a complete bust was also due to fossil fuels and global warming. The cause is always going to be fossil fuels and nothing else whatever the out come . It has to be now , they've painted themselves Into a corner of no other excuse. History has proven hurricane frequency cycles. The first 60 years of the 20th century Hurricanes hit the NE coast frequently, and I'm sure someday that cycle will return. History has shown longterm droughts cycle and at some point the western drought will gradually come to an end.

[tron777]

Well the predictions of a Mega hurricane season because of the warmer than normal Atlantic because of the use of fossil fuels were a complete bust. Although now I'm sure the reason it was a complete bust was also due to fossil fuels and global warming. The cause is always going to be fossil fuels and nothing else whatever the out come . It has to be now , they've painted themselves Into a corner of no other excuse. History has proven hurricane frequency cycles. The first 60 years of the 20th century Hurricanes hit the NE coast frequently, and I'm sure someday that cycle will return. History has shown longterm droughts cycle and at some point the western drought will gradually come to an end.

Perfectly stated. Our sun is cyclical and since it helps drive our climate, it is cyclical too! We cannot make any money off of things being in cycles right? So thus... global warming and the idea that fossil fuels are bad... that kind of rhetoric was born. Thanks Al.

[tron777]

No clue if this will pan out or not, but if it does... no one here should complain.

[tpweather]

Great Posts guys about how the weather does go through cycles. The problem is so many folks just take what the media throws out as correct. Nobody does the research and that is a big problem. Just like most things follow the money.

[tron777]

Great Posts guys about how the weather does go through cycles. The problem is so many folks just take what the media throws out as correct. Nobody does the research and that is a big problem. Just like most things follow the money.

It's sad, isn't it? Where if you did some work, you might learn something as well as helping the science of Meteorology out. But as the old saying goes, money talks and BS walks. Just how it is unfortunately.

[tron777]

For those who did not see BG's video today... here is NOAA's Winter Outlook for this season.

NoaaTemps.gif

NOAA Precip.gif

Their write up:


https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-wi ... 0Northwest.

[tron777]

With this post... I am going to give a brief overview of how I think winter will go from Nov - Mar. At this time, I believe that the weather will be mild overall thru about mid November. Sure, some cold days will mix in, talking overall here. I think we'll be stuck in a -PNA for a few weeks. MJO was trying to take the tour from Phase 5, 6, and 7 but attm, it looks to be dying out on the boarder of phases 6, and 7. So the MJO was moving right along until now so that could be a reason we stay mild for a few weeks. Hopefully.... the rains will start to come back into the picture too.

I do believe that we'll see a flip to winter sometime in the second half of November to a colder pattern. Snow is always a crap shoot, but if you want snow, you need cold so... I think the pattern will skew colder overall thru December and likely into January of 2023. This is the best time for us to cash in IMO. We should see some bouts during this time of -EPO / +PNA. If we can get some -NAO blocking too, then the chances at a big dog go way up. I do believe that some blocking will occur this winter. We've been seeing bouts of it already which is good. Doesn't mean it''ll stay that way, but I think it beats seeing none, right?

The typical Nina pattern should come back with a -PNA/ SE ridge combo and most likely a +NAO sometime in the second half of Jan and esp for Feb. I am not expecting a cold Feb this go around, but a mild and wet one. The Nina should be fading in December so the atmospheric impacts should revert back to more of a neutral to Nino look for March (maybe April too?) so cold and snow chances should come back to finish out the season.

The potential to receive above to well above normal snow is there this season should we get that blocking we so desperately need for a nice juiced up, and phased system. If the Pacific pattern is good, then the storm track might work out for us for once. December or early January IMO is the best shot at a big dog and perhaps early March as well.

Anyone else have any broad brushed thoughts like this? If so, please post.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and still working on my forecast and some of your thoughts are similar to my overall winter forecast.

[tron777]

Great Post Les and still working on my forecast and some of your thoughts are similar to my overall winter forecast.

Good deal... can't wait to read it once you have time to get your thoughts put together.

[tpweather]

I know there is one person and forget the name who is big on the amount of snow cover in Oct and I believe especially in Russia. I have never been sold on this item and again there is always going to be snow in these northern regions. What I do look at a little more is the amount of snow further south and this imo is a bigger sign of how cold a winter may be. Remember the arctic regions itself gets very little snow but its so cold it stays around all winter. Further south say in central and southern Canada and eastern Europe and northern China snowfall totals mean a lot more when I do a forecast for winter. I know the arctic regions got off to a quick start but have leveled off in the past 10 days or so. I just want the cold reserve in those regions I mentioned to have a deeper snow cover and this imo will let some really cold air invade the central regions of the Northern Hemisphere when we get the correct blocking. Much of this snow though is usually falling November so a forecast from Oct 31st until November 30th can changes depending on that factor and a few more items.

[tron777]

I know there is one person and forget the name who is big on the amount of snow cover in Oct and I believe especially in Russia. I have never been sold on this item and again there is always going to be snow in these northern regions. What I do look at a little more is the amount of snow further south and this imo is a bigger sign of how cold a winter may be. Remember the arctic regions itself gets very little snow but its so cold it stays around all winter. Further south say in central and southern Canada and eastern Europe and northern China snowfall totals mean a lot more when I do a forecast for winter. I know the arctic regions got off to a quick start but have leveled off in the past 10 days or so. I just want the cold reserve in those regions I mentioned to have a deeper snow cover and this imo will let some really cold air invade the central regions of the Northern Hemisphere when we get the correct blocking. Much of this snow though is usually falling November so a forecast from Oct 31st until November 30th can changes depending on that factor and a few more items.

Tim, I believe you are talking about the SAI Theory developed many years ago by Dr. Judith Cohen. That theory has been shot down more times then not in the last decade. Don't get me wrong. Snow cover is very important. It absolutely does have impacts on cold air production too. I think the biggest misunderstanding on Cohen's theory is this. It is the rate of snow cover in Siberia over the month of October esp at the end of October as in how fast is it piling up? You get an upper low or a big tough over there, it'll add up quickly, and we've seen that honestly since about mid Sept. The theory means little right now, we have 10 days to go. But my point of this reply to your post is that people have put too much emphasis on it.

Another example of a busted theory. The winter of 2013-2014... the North Pacific Warm Blob. Remember all of that hoopla? That theory doesn't work much either. Probably another one-off. The warm SST's likely show you where the pattern has been... not what is coming in the future. We have the warm SST's now, but with the -PNA... watch them cool off quickly in the Gulf of Alaska. You'd expect it, esp since we're in a La Nina.


I've been guilty myself of using the warm SST's too much... snow cover as well etc. These are just pieces of the puzzle and not the end all or be all of long range or seasonal forecasting. So my points here are that scientists are trying to find ways to explain things that happen in weather. It looks good for a year or two then when the theory gets put to the test, it falls apart. We have so much more work to do to understand our atmosphere. It'll never happen in our lifetimes. The chaos theory rules! The atmosphere is ever changing and so complex as we all know on this forum, But, we like a challenge and that's what makes our hobby fun and brings us back for more.

[tron777]

I think the PNA means a lot as well as the EPO. The Pacific usually means more to us having it set up correctly then anywhere else. Our weather comes from the West, right? So things need to look good with the blocks (ridges) in the first places so the downstream trough for us, works out in our favor. So much goes into it. The timing of each disturbance in the jet stream and it's ability or inability to phase into a bigger system. That's why big storms and big snow storms are rare for us. 9 times out of 10, we don't get the phasing to occur, or it's too early or too late, etc.

[tron777]

Good evening all... got an update from DT's Facebook page. See self explanatory image below.

DTWinterEarlyPost.png

So, with the above stated, can we get an early start to winter as the above seasonal models show with a blocking pattern and maybe bouts of -EPO / +PNA? We've talked about the MJO many times and how sometimes it can drive the pattern. Earlier in Autumn, Phases 5-7 helped to promote the colder pattern and the big PNA spike we had. Now, the wave lengths are shorter in the atmosphere so the same forcing, means a different result per the time of year. As we get deeper into autumn, and eventually winter, 5-7 is warm. We've got a -PNA now and the MJO has stalled into Phases 6 / 7. See Aussie chart below.

rmm.phase.Last40days.gif

So we are talking literally month from now. Things can change. Let's track the MJO over the next month and see how it responds to see if the seasonal climate models are right or full of it. For now... the MJO models are keeping it stalled in either 6 or 7 (depending on model) thru mid November. This fits my mild Nov call I have in the November monthly thread. After Thanksgiving, is winter getting an early start? Does the MJO shift into the colder phases or stay in the mild ones yet again, stumping forecasters?

[tpweather]

Great Post Les concerning DT's post. I agree with an early start to winter and the other day I figured it would be about 4 weeks away and that is very similar to your forecast.Concerning the mjo and no doubt it can be a player but will it be the main player. Not sure on that but I would still love to see it in phases 8-2 starting in late November. I still believe Mother Nature is giving us the main clue as an early cold spell, leaves changing and falling earlier than normal are all signs lending itself to an early start.

[tron777]

Great Post Les concerning DT's post. I agree with an early start to winter and the other day I figured it would be about 4 weeks away and that is very similar to your forecast.Concerning the mjo and no doubt it can be a player but will it be the main player. Not sure on that but I would still love to see it in phases 8-2 starting in late November. I still believe Mother Nature is giving us the main clue as an early cold spell, leaves changing and falling earlier than normal are all signs lending itself to an early start.

Tim, we're on the same page for sure with this. The real question is... how about Mother Nature? Hopefully the MJO will get a move on in the coming weeks and not stay there or continue repeating those same phases. None of those outcomes are good. Need it to roll into 8 at the very least here.

[tpweather]

Starting to see some really nice cold air in northern Canada with temps -20 and lower at night and daytime highs near -10. Central and Southern Canada starting to see some systems to bring them snow so this will help them tap some of the cold air over the next few weeks and hopefully enough to keep the snow on the ground for a long period. Alaska was rather mild and is starting to see some cold and some snow but still nothing earth shattering though they will turn colder as well in the next 2 weeks but more near to slightly below normal. I will check on Europe and Asia in the next few days to see if anything of importance is happening.

[tron777]

Cold air production doesn't bother me at all. We just had a nice bout of early season cold air so I know it's available. Snow Cover is looking good and the positive anomalies over S Canada and the Rockies is good too. What we need is a way to get it here.

ims2022299_alaska.gif

Rutgers.png

[tron777]

DT's Prelim Winter Forecast:

https://tinyurl.com/mk8nabkr

[snowbo]

DT's Prelim Winter Forecast:

https://tinyurl.com/mk8nabkr

Link doesn't work for me...