Major Hurricane Ian

[tron777]

Folks... I am breaking out Ian on its own thread since it has a high chance at impacting the CONUS. Please discuss all things Ian here. Currently as of 11am advisory, Ian has winds of 45 mph moving W at 15. Per the satellite image below, you can see good outflow on the southern side and western but shear cutting off the cloud tops on its northern and eastern sides. The convection still isn't going to be able to wrap around the center until it moves further west into the Caribbean where there is less shear and more room for development.

Ian.jpg

Model guidance is below...

ianmodels.png

storm_09.gif

Ian should begin to strengthen over the next 24 hours as low shear is ahead of it from the storm itself to Florida.

wind shear.gif

Finally... 11am statement from NHC:


Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 75.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Ian still has an asymmetric appearance in satellite imagery this
morning, with most of the deep convection located over the western
portion of the circulation. Tail Doppler radar and dropsonde data
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the cyclone is still
vertically tilted, with the low- to mid-level center displaced to
the south of the surface center. This structure is likely a product
of the northerly shear that has affected the cyclone since genesis.
The aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 43 kt and SFMR
retrievals slightly above 35 kt, which supports keeping the initial
intensity at 40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is a bit south of due west at 260/13 kt. A
generally westward motion is expected through tonight as the cyclone
is steered by a narrow ridge to its north. Ian is forecast to turn
northwestward on Sunday and north-northwestward on Monday as it
moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea around the periphery of
the ridge. The NHC track forecast during this period has been
adjusted slightly south and west of the previous one, in line with
the track consensus aids. Beyond 72 h, there is still a large amount
of cross-track spread in the guidance as Ian emerges into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida. Hopefully, data
collected from special radiosonde releases beginning later today and
a scheduled NOAA G-IV flight will help resolve the steering flow
around Ian and deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the
eastern U.S. early next week. The guidance envelope has once again
shifted westward this cycle, and the official NHC track forecast has
been adjusted in this direction as well, though it still lies
slightly to the east of the TVCA and HCCA aids. Further adjustments
to the track forecast may be needed given the increased uncertainty
in the day 3-5 period.

Ian is moving into a lower shear environment over very warm waters,
and it should not take long for the system to shed its tilted
structure and develop an inner core. Once that occurs, significant
to rapid intensification is expected while Ian crosses the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The intensity guidance unanimously
supports strengthening during the next several days, and the
SHIPS-RII probabilities indicate a 67 percent chance of a 65-kt
intensity increase in 72 h. Therefore, the NHC track forecast has
been raised from the previous one, showing Ian becoming a hurricane
by late Sunday and approaching western Cuba at or near major
hurricane strength by Monday night. Limited land interaction is
expected as the cyclone quickly passes over western Cuba, and Ian
is forecast to be a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the west coast of Florida.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has Ian hitting the Western Panhandle of FL then working north bring rains into our area for next Saturday.

[tron777]

As of 2pm, Ian has winds of 45 mph moving W at 16.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has Ian rocking Tampa FL then the leftover rains give us a wet Sat as well.

[tron777]

Per the NHC discussion at 5 PM:

North-northwestward to northward motion is
forecast on Monday and Tuesday as the center of Ian passes near or
over the western tip of Cuba and emerges over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. Overall, the westward trend in the track models
continues, with the latest GFS on the far left side of the guidance
envelope and the ECMWF on the right edge. The track forecast is
still highly uncertain at days 4-5, with the GFS and ECMWF positions
about 200 n mi apart by 96 h. There is significant spread noted even
among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the
north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida.
Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases and a
NOAA G-IV flight this evening will help better resolve the steering
flow around Ian and the deep-layer trough that is forecast to be
over the eastern U.S. early next week. The latest NHC track forecast
is once again adjusted westward, and further adjustments may be
needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 14.3N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 14.6N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 15.7N 80.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.4N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.2N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 20.9N 84.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 23.1N 85.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 26.2N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 28.7N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH

[Bgoney]

Saturday 11pm nhc update

rQfVLys.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...
...RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 79.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...550 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Ian is now a cane with winds of 75 mph. Expecting this to ramp up to a major cane by this afternoon and a Cat 4 tomorrow.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and was out of town for a few days. Trying to get caught up on the Hurricane. This time the Euro had the correct path to start out with though the gfs switched to this path a few days after it had it headed for New Orleans. Not sure how strong it will be once it hits the west coast of Florida but I could see a Cat 2. Rainfall from this may even hit some of us especially the further south and east you live over the weekend. Of course in SC rain is likely and continue the above normal rainfall for that area since 2019 when I first arrived there.

[tron777]

Euro and CMC do bring rain to us with Ian's leftovers while the GFS is Eastern KY and Eastern OH and we get missed.

[tron777]

Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY...
...IAN WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS IN
WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 82.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

[tpweather]

Another key aspect of the storm is if it stays away from land over Cuba. Mountains in western Cuba can disrupt the eye and weaken a storm. If this one stays out over water then Cat 4 is very possible. Close call at the moment but all other aspects would show the storm to stay rather strong. Again at this point very hard to predict exactly where the landfall will be in the USA and how strong but the western coast of Florida all the way to the panhandle has the best shot.

[tron777]

Tim, I agree. I'd say the Panhandle on East to Tampa is the "cone of uncertainty" if you will. The debate is out if it weakens to a Cat 1 or TS before landfall or remains a Cat 2 or even 3.

Currently, look at this satellite loop. It is indeed strengthening per this as you can see t-storms organizing and completely wrapping around the center now. Expect an eye to form at some point today.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[tron777]

As of 11am Ian has winds of 80 mph moving NW at 13.

[tron777]

12Z GFS also now into Tampa with Ian just like past Euro runs. It has been over 100 years since Tampa has experienced a direct hit from a land falling hurricane. Model support is increasing for this idea unfortunately.

[tron777]

[tron777]

85 mph winds now as of 2pm.

[tron777]

Winds are now up to 100 mph as of the 5pm update.

[tron777]

IanHasADateWithTampa.jpg

Getting concerned for Tampa...

[tron777]

IanVisy.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

Prayers and thoughts with all in the cone of uncertainty.

The Sun night 8:20 game of KC at Tampa may have to be relocated depending how much damage / destruction in the wake of Ian.

[tron777]

Ian is a major hurricane making landfall on the Western Tip of Cuba. Winds are now at 125 mph moving N at 12. Once it moves back over the Gulf, continued strengthening is likely.

[tpweather]

No doubt this is a very large Hurricane and these tend to move slowly. Not sure it will be a major hurricane when it hits land but the storm surge and large amounts of rain will cause trouble. I can see over 20 inches easily in parts of western Florida before all is said and done. Yes there will be some wind damage especially to mobile homes and other structures but they have a strong building code so most buildings can withstand these winds. Flooding which always causes the most deaths is the main problem.