Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[Bgoney]

Tropics finally figured out it was peak climo Conditions

[tron777]

Fiona is maxed out with winds of 130 mph moving NNE at 13, Still expected Bermuda and then NS Canada to be the "Fall guys" on this one. Gaston is still a TS in the N ATL with winds of 65 mph moving ENE at 17 and away from the Azores then eventually curving back and moving to the West impacting the Azores with TS conditions. Then drifting west and petering out overtime.

The S ATL wave has a 90% chance now. Eastern ATL wave has a 30% chance of development and a new wave coming off of Africa has a 60% chance.

[tpweather]

Of course my daughter is leaving on Friday and taking a nice fall trip to Maine. Could have some leftovers from the tropics but no doubt will be nice and cool for sure.

[tron777]

Of course my daughter is leaving on Friday and taking a nice fall trip to Maine. Could have some leftovers from the tropics but no doubt will be nice and cool for sure.

I could see Downeast Maine getting clipped because of the size of this storm but they are on the "offshore" side of the circulation and should be fine.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and just looking ahead for the possible tropical system that could hit the mainland USA later next week. Today the gfs is still the furthest west and hitting the Mississippi coast. The Euro is in route to hit the western area of Florida and the CMC has headed towards the Euro outcome. Still to early to get an exact track and I have no idea if either is correct.

[tron777]

Fiona is moving NNE at 25 with winds of 125 W of Bermuda this morning. Gaston is moving ESE at 9 with winds of 60 mph NW of the Azores. We now have TD 9 with winds of 35 mph moving WNW at 13 in the Central Caribbean. This is the one we need to watch for Gulf impacts later. Finally, the lead African Wave is 20 / 30 and the one coming off the Coast is our next depression with 70% odds.

[tron777]

The African Wave is now TD 10 moving NNW at 12mph.. Which one will be Hermine and which one (TD9) will become Ian? Stay tuned...

[tron777]

Busy... busy.... busy....

Fiona is rolling thru Atlantic Canada right now... Gaston is impacting the Azores... Hermine is off the African Coast moving N at 10 mph with 40 mph winds. This one is not expected to do much.

All eyes are pretty much on Ian right now moving WSW at 15 with winds of 45 mph. Ian is currently expected to potentially impact FL as a Cat 3 in about 3-4 days from now.

[tron777]

Hermine is down to 30 mph and is about done. Gaston has winds of 50 mph and will weaken in the next couple of days.

[tron777]

Our next wave out in the Central Atlantic now has a 70% chance of development. If named, this one would become Julia.

[tron777]

TD 11 is born but not expected to become an issue.

Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 34.4W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[tron777]

The next wave off of Africa currently has a 60% chance to develop in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

African Wave odds are at 20 / 70 now.

[tron777]

African Wave is now 30 / 70 for odds.

[tron777]

We have 2 waves now. The first is approaching the Islands and it has 30 / 40 for odds. The other is the African Wave which is now up to 40 / 70.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022
500 PM AST Tue Oct 04 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 30.5W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[tron777]

TD12 probably won't even get a name. Then the S wave approaching the Islands now has an 80% chance in the next 5 days.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

TD 12 is moving WNW at 13 and won't be around for long. The S wave in the ATL near the South American Coast has a 90% chance now.

[tpweather]

TD 12 is moving WNW at 13 and won't be around for long. The S wave in the ATL near the South American Coast has a 90% chance now.

This one looks to head mainly west so the USA should be spared but it will hit central American and with all the mountains they will have their normal flooding.

[tron777]

TD 12 is moving WNW at 13 and won't be around for long. The S wave in the ATL near the South American Coast has a 90% chance now.

This one looks to head mainly west so the USA should be spared but it will hit central American and with all the mountains they will have their normal flooding.

Agreed... most of the guidance I have seen takes it into Central America.

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
200 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SAN ANDRES, PROVIDENCIA, AND SANTA
CATALINA ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 67.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

TD 13 is all we have left on the board. It is likely to become Julia and a Cat 1 cane before drilling Central America.