Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

Another side note: If we don’t get a named storm today, It'll be the first time since 1961 that August failed to produce a named storm. Also, it'll be the first ever August La Nina failure too!

[tpweather]

Good Morning. Les and Bgoney are looking great with the call of the fish storm. I was 50/50 because I was not sure if the trough in the east would return and that should happen over the weekend. If the ridging was able to take hold then I thought the storm once it gets going could have ran underneath the ridging but the Greenland block that we talk about quite often in the winter looks to take hold and the helps bringing another trough to the eastern USA. Many times during August and September the tropics are the leader in terms of weather conditions but so far that has not been the case this year.

[tron777]

91L is trying to get its act together.... If it gets named, I hope it isn't until tomorrow.

91L.jpg

[tpweather]

91L is trying to get its act together.... If it gets named, I hope it isn't until tomorrow.


91L.jpg

I agree Les and there is a large circulation with this system.

[tron777]

Odds update:

91L - 60 / 80
African Wave is down to 30 / 30

The Northern ATL wave is now TD 5. It is barely moving ENE at 2mph with winds of 35 mph. This thing is expected to get a name and potentially even become a hurricane sometime this weekend but it's not going to bother any landmasses at this time.

[cloudy72]

Looks like we have TS Danielle waaaay out in the Atlantic.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 44.7W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 44.7 West. Danielle is
moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). The tropical storm is
expected to meander during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two days or
so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).

[tron777]

Check out the IR Loop of Danielle. One of the more interesting loops I've seen in a while. Look at the last frame. She looks like a 2 eyed monster.

TS Danielle.gif

[tron777]

Danielle has winds of 70 mph moving E at 3. She is expected to become a hurricane and perhaps a Cat 2 before weakening. It will remain a fish storm.

91L's odds are at 50 / 70 as it begins to approach the Islands here soon. This system is moving slowly WNW and should pass north of most of the islands (Virgin islands, Puerto Rico, etc). This system could get far enough west to impact the E. Bahamas and as it turns north and eventually NE out to sea, Bermuda also needs to keep an eye on it for whatever form it may or may not take.

Finally, the wave that came off of Africa a few days ago is now W of the Cape Verde islands and is weakening. Only a 10% chance of development at this time is expected per the NHC.

[tpweather]

Danielle has winds of 70 mph moving E at 3. She is expected to become a hurricane and perhaps a Cat 2 before weakening. It will remain a fish storm.

91L's odds are at 50 / 70 as it begins to approach the Islands here soon. This system is moving slowly WNW and should pass north of most of the islands (Virgin islands, Puerto Rico, etc). This system could get far enough west to impact the E. Bahamas and as it turns north and eventually NE out to sea, Bermuda also needs to keep an eye on it for whatever form it may or may not take.

Finally, the wave that came off of Africa a few days ago is now W of the Cape Verde islands and is weakening. Only a 10% chance of development at this time is expected per the NHC.

Still a very slow season. I guess my biggest surprise is some of the known experts have continued to keep their forecasts the same in regards to number of storms. I know its hard to change a forecast and we all have certain bias and I do this many times in the winter though trying to get better. Yes its only Sept 2nd but I believe the peak of the season is mid-Sept. Yes we have seen clusters of storms here and there in the Atlantic but most are having a hard time maintaining strenght.

[tron777]

Tim, I will be completely shocked if we get an avg to above avg season. The peak of the season is in about 10 days or so from now and overall it's "better" then it has been but still relatively quiet. Too much dry air out there chocking these systems off. No dry air in the N ATL so Danielle was able to form (also well above avg SST's in the N ATL helping too). If you look at 91L, it is surrounded by dry air and it's not going to develop further unless it can survive long enough to get thru the dry air. Then maybe it can develop a bit before being shunted out to sea.

[Wxlrnr]

I was reading that the N Atlantic is experiencing a marine heatwave and Danielle is over the very warm water. Some of the models are showing a major hurricane.

[tpweather]

Tim, I will be completely shocked if we get an avg to above avg season. The peak of the season is in about 10 days or so from now and overall it's "better" then it has been but still relatively quiet. Too much dry air out there chocking these systems off. No dry air in the N ATL so Danielle was able to form (also well above avg SST's in the N ATL helping too). If you look at 91L, it is surrounded by dry air and it's not going to develop further unless it can survive long enough to get thru the dry air. Then maybe it can develop a bit before being shunted out to sea.

I agree Les and DT who had is video last week was throwing out the BS word many times saying the Hurricane would hit the USA. That is not happening and I believe the part he missed was the strong Greenland blocking that really forced the trough in the eastern USA further south and this kept the ridging out to the west. We all miss forecasts and again he is usually better at patterns in the future and I always listen to what he throws out but this time he may just have missed the complete pattern.

[tpweather]

I was reading that the N Atlantic is experiencing a marine heatwave and Danielle is over the very warm water. Some of the models are showing a major hurricane.

No doubt has Europe had a very warm summer and part of that was the N. Atlantic had a nice ridge most of the summer which got the waters warmer than normal and also helped in giving Europe a few heatwaves.

[tron777]

I was reading that the N Atlantic is experiencing a marine heatwave and Danielle is over the very warm water. Some of the models are showing a major hurricane.

It's possible. I wouldn't rule it out.

[tron777]

Tim, I will be completely shocked if we get an avg to above avg season. The peak of the season is in about 10 days or so from now and overall it's "better" then it has been but still relatively quiet. Too much dry air out there chocking these systems off. No dry air in the N ATL so Danielle was able to form (also well above avg SST's in the N ATL helping too). If you look at 91L, it is surrounded by dry air and it's not going to develop further unless it can survive long enough to get thru the dry air. Then maybe it can develop a bit before being shunted out to sea.

I agree Les and DT who had is video last week was throwing out the BS word many times saying the Hurricane would hit the USA. That is not happening and I believe the part he missed was the strong Greenland blocking that really forced the trough in the eastern USA further south and this kept the ridging out to the west. We all miss forecasts and again he is usually better at patterns in the future and I always listen to what he throws out but this time he may just have missed the complete pattern.

If we would have had more of a SE ridge and not a +PNA, then it would have happened. But, the couple of Euro runs that showed the potential, quickly lost it and came back to reality. One of DT's failures is relying on the Euro model too much. It has it's time and place like every model of course, but you cannot rely on one model every single time and in every single situation. As you've said many times, he is a great long term forecaster, but not so much in the short or medium range.

[tron777]

Danielle is now a hurricane as of the 11am update from the NHC with winds of 75 mph moving W a 1 mph. This is the first cane of the Atlantic season.

[tron777]

Danielle is back down to a TS with winds of 70 mph thanks to upwelling.

91L is now TS Earl, see statement from the NHC below.

Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

...EARL CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 61.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[tron777]

Danielle has winds of 75 mph moving NE and finally will be out of our hair soon.

Earl has winds of 65 mph moving N at 7. This one is also going to be a fish storm and become a hurricane as well eventually.

More waves coming off of Africa. First one has odds of 40 / 60 and the second 0 / 20.

[tron777]

Danielle has winds of 80 mph picking up speed moving NE at 14. Soon she'll be off the map.

Earl is now a hurricane with winds of 85 mph moving N at 4. He will eventually turn more NE and hopefully miss Bermuda. A Cat 3 is possible with this system but no worries for the CONUS.

Finally, the African wave train is alive and well with the lead wave having 60% odds and the other 0 / 30 coming off the coast.

[tpweather]

Danielle has winds of 80 mph picking up speed moving NE at 14. Soon she'll be off the map.

Earl is now a hurricane with winds of 85 mph moving N at 4. He will eventually turn more NE and hopefully miss Bermuda. A Cat 3 is possible with this system but no worries for the CONUS.

Finally, the African wave train is alive and well with the lead wave having 60% odds and the other 0 / 30 coming off the coast.

Les heading towards the normal peak next week. With a late start the peak may be delayed by a week or so but still way below normal in terms of storms and so far nothing heading towards the mainland USA.

[tron777]

Danielle has winds of 80 mph picking up speed moving NE at 14. Soon she'll be off the map.

Earl is now a hurricane with winds of 85 mph moving N at 4. He will eventually turn more NE and hopefully miss Bermuda. A Cat 3 is possible with this system but no worries for the CONUS.

Finally, the African wave train is alive and well with the lead wave having 60% odds and the other 0 / 30 coming off the coast.

Les heading towards the normal peak next week. With a late start the peak may be delayed by a week or so but still way below normal in terms of storms and so far nothing heading towards the mainland USA.

I agree. I also believe the lead African Wave will be a fish storm, but the one coming off the coast, needs to be watched to see if it can sneak under the ridge and track a bit more south and west. Until we see how that pans out, we're good to go for a while tropically speaking.

[MVWxObserver]

NHC will have a lot of yolk on their faces after this season.

[tron777]

NHC will have a lot of yolk on their faces after this season.

As well many other public and private forecasters / Mets.

[tron777]

Danielle is now a TS with winds of 70 ,mph moving NE at 16. The leftovers will eventually move towards Spain and Portugal. Earl now has winds of 105 mph moving N at 10. He is expected to brush Bermuda and become a Cat 4 at peak intensity before moving NE and out to sea.

Wave between the Islands and Africa - 70% chance for development
Wave moving off of Africa - 30% chance

[MVWxObserver]

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