September 2022 WX discussion

[tpweather]

What a wild pattern and especially for the normally dry season. The one thing we have noticed in the past several years is these patterns tend to get stuck in place for a longer period of time and of course we have seen how localized the rains have been as well. At my house I am still below normal for rainfall since August 1st but most folks are way above normal. Just arrived in Greenville and the rain has been moderate but just north of here tons of rain near Asheville. Again very localized and expecting more rain down here.

[Angelika]

We are sitting at about 5" here. It was a long night. Are we supposed to get much more? We are supposed to visit family by we're afraid to leave in case it floods here again.

[Wxlrnr]

Just checked my rain guage, about 2 inches of rain last night for an event total of 2.65 inches, so far.

[Bgoney]

We are sitting at about 5" here. It was a long night. Are we supposed to get much more? We are supposed to visit family by we're afraid to leave in case it floods here again.

These clusters of slow movers could pop up anywhere. If the family isn't to far away , keep an hourly check on the radar to make sure the showers don't hit your hood again

[MVWxObserver]

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[Woolyworm]

Just got back to the woodpile from Labor Day Weekend in Eastern Ohio. 3.5 inches of rain in the gauge.

[cloudy72]

Raining once again - dome apparently took the holiday weekend off lol

[Bgoney]

Issued earlier , but goes until 9pm or so

0951
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 PM EDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower and Middle OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051930Z - 060130Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are
expected to pose a threat for a few instances of flash flooding
heading into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...An elongated and broad mid-level trough and
associated closed low stretching through the middle MS and
lower/middle OH Valley region continues to help focus a
quasi-stationary front across the region with multiple weak waves
of low pressure advancing northeast along it. Sufficient diurnal
heating has ensued over the last several hours to help drive
moderate instability in the boundary layer in vicinity of the
front, and the latest RAP analysis shows an axis of MLCAPE
reaching 1000 to 1500 j/kg. GOES-16 visible satellite imagery does
show an expansive area of moderate CU and TCU across the region
which is reflective of the unstable boundary layer.

Broad diffluence aloft with embedded vorts in the southwest
mid-level flow coupled with the instability and presence of a
tropical airmass in the lower levels of the column should result
in some gradual expansion of showers and thunderstorms over the
next few hours. The activity will tend to be scattered in nature,
but may tend to be locally focused and slow-moving near the
aforementioned front where somewhat stronger low-level
forcing/convergence will be noted. Convection in time is expected
to also build a bit deeper into the warm sector south of the front.

Expect rainfall rates to locally be as high as 2 inches/hour and
some storm total amounts through mid-evening may reach upwards of
3 to 4 inches. This is consistent with the 12Z HREF suite of
guidance. A few instances of flash flooding will be possible given
the high rainfall rates, and generally the more sensitive urban
areas will be most prone to runoff concerns

Screenshot_20220905-182922_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

CVG 0.19" for today and me 0.31". 0.07" at the Boone Co mesonet site.

[cloudy72]

I admit I am in awe - downpour practically sitting on top of me and just pouring! 2.30” for the day now and 3.35” for the event!!

[snowbo]

I admit I am in awe - downpour practically sitting on top of me and just pouring! 2.30” for the day now and 3.35” for the event!!

Nice! I've still got your dome. Only 1.05" here for the three-day weekend.

[Angelika]

It's raining here again

[tron777]

Received an additional 0.04" overnight. CVG an additional 0.12". chances slowly decreasing as the week goes on. Dews may even drop by Thurs along with dry conditions for Thurs and Fri. Humidity and renewed rain chances come back by this weekend when Les goes on vacation to Cass Lake, MN

[tron777]

For temps... could see the mid 80s on Friday but other then that, 70s and low 80s should be about it. Basically close to avg for early Sept.

[Bgoney]

Received an additional 0.04" overnight. CVG an additional 0.12". chances slowly decreasing as the week goes on. Dews may even drop by Thurs along with dry conditions for Thurs and Fri. Humidity and renewed rain chances come back by this weekend when Les goes on vacation to Cass Lake, MN

Looks like you'll be wearing some winter clothing on the boat

[cloudy72]

Nice! I've still got your dome. Only 1.05" here for the three-day weekend.

Wow looks like my dome split into two - one over you and the other over Tim.

I wouldn't mind the dome returning for at least a couple days (better watch what I wish for eh haha) and hopefully some of you who have been largely missed get some rain today.

[tron777]

Received an additional 0.04" overnight. CVG an additional 0.12". chances slowly decreasing as the week goes on. Dews may even drop by Thurs along with dry conditions for Thurs and Fri. Humidity and renewed rain chances come back by this weekend when Les goes on vacation to Cass Lake, MN

Looks like you'll be wearing some winter clothing on the boat

Highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s will feel chilly no doubt. If it's windy yeah so bigger clothes will be required. There are many places to get out of the wind thankfully where we're going. I love it in Sept up there. Leaves start changing when I get there and are very colorful and vibrant when I leave. Rain chances while I am there look low thankfully at this time.

[Bgoney]

Over the holiday weekend, With practically zero steering mechanism, it's been fascinating to watch the movement of the showers. I've seen every combination of movement possible. Even seen showers twenty miles from one another moving in almost opposite direction

[tron777]

Yesterday was an odd day... We got more deck work done in Milford and it was mainly sunny and warm (very humid) and in the 80s. I get back home to find out it was cloudy, light rain and 70s yesterday. A tale of two cities I guess.

[tpweather]

Good Morning from the lovely muggy Greenville. Of course its been raining down here since I arrived. Continued chances about every day down here but not a washout by any means. Looks like a nice stretch of weather at home for the end of the week. Near normal temps for the most part expected. Models are trying to show an upper low this weekend but the placement TBD. Plenty of vegetation for early September and the farmers really need a break has we head into harvest time. 90 degrees and is that done for the year. Most likely with the recent rains and most places rather lush for this time of year. Should be a trough dig into the northwest USA in the next couple of weeks which is normal and sometimes we can build up enough ridging to have a few days near 90 but with the vegetation chances are lower than normal. Overall the summer was above normal for temps but the main reason has been overnight lows and this has been the trend for several years. Yes the tropics have picked up but again well below the predicted storms from the experts but they are not giving up. Once we get into October and some nice cooler days and nights the frost should be easier to form with a more lush vegetation.

[tpweather]

Received an additional 0.04" overnight. CVG an additional 0.12". chances slowly decreasing as the week goes on. Dews may even drop by Thurs along with dry conditions for Thurs and Fri. Humidity and renewed rain chances come back by this weekend when Les goes on vacation to Cass Lake, MN

Looks like you'll be wearing some winter clothing on the boat

Highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s will feel chilly no doubt. If it's windy yeah so bigger clothes will be required. There are many places to get out of the wind thankfully where we're going. I love it in Sept up there. Leaves start changing when I get there and are very colorful and vibrant when I leave. Rain chances while I am there look low thankfully at this time.

Enjoy Les and yes up there in mid-Sept can be very nice. Coming through the mountains I saw the leaves starting to change though most still green but you could tell fall is on its way. Before I left I was mulching up some of the dead leaves and quite a bit more than I expected.

[tron777]

Received an additional 0.04" overnight. CVG an additional 0.12". chances slowly decreasing as the week goes on. Dews may even drop by Thurs along with dry conditions for Thurs and Fri. Humidity and renewed rain chances come back by this weekend when Les goes on vacation to Cass Lake, MN

Looks like you'll be wearing some winter clothing on the boat

Highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s will feel chilly no doubt. If it's windy yeah so bigger clothes will be required. There are many places to get out of the wind thankfully where we're going. I love it in Sept up there. Leaves start changing when I get there and are very colorful and vibrant when I leave. Rain chances while I am there look low thankfully at this time.

Enjoy Les and yes up there in mid-Sept can be very nice. Coming through the mountains I saw the leaves starting to change though most still green but you could tell fall is on its way. Before I left I was mulching up some of the dead leaves and quite a bit more than I expected.

Thanks Tim! I've had 90s up there and have seen frost once. Although not unheard of (but very rare), I have yet to see snow in mid Sept. (I wouldn't be upset if I ever did though )

EDIT: 60s / 40s are normal climo for this time year up there.

[cloudy72]

Getting another thunderstorm LOL Dome still on vaca!

[tron777]

Getting another thunderstorm LOL Dome still on vaca!

Radar looks promising for you all N of the river. Glad to see your water table getting back to where it should be!~ I'm good down here. Hope Bo, Tim, or anyone else who may need it, can cash in with this broken line sliding in.

[tpweather]

Getting another thunderstorm LOL Dome still on vaca!

Radar looks promising for you all N of the river. Glad to see your water table getting back to where it should be!~ I'm good down here. Hope Bo, Tim, or anyone else who may need it, can cash in with this broken line sliding in.

What is wild imo the amount of folks all around me in different counties and even parts of Kenton County looked like spring and the small area around my house is rather dry.