September 2022 WX discussion

[Bgoney]

Meteorological fall is upon us. September starts with beautiful weather, but how does the rest of the month play out? For the month as a whole , the two long range models I have looked at show above normal precip much like August played out for the region, in that near and south of 71 being the better area for above normal precip. A couple of 90's?, a visit from the tropics? , do we see some temps in the 40's? Stay tuned.

[tron777]

Thanks for getting the thread started Bgoney. I pinned it and we're ready to talk about it. I like what you and I have already discussed so far. It is looking dry to start but near or after mid month, I am expecting the storminess to pick up again. The tropics are always a wildcard should they influence the pattern so changes in that thinking may or may not be needed. A 90 or two is possible esp if the tropics forces a ridge over us ahead of the storm, as an example.

[tron777]

UGH.... 12Z GFS brings a front in Saturday and stalls it out thru early next week until 91L does the recurve to finally allow the front to move thru the area. Hope this is wrong or major forecast changes will be needed for this weekend and beyond. Lots of folks have plans including the WEBN fireworks on Sunday night.

[Bgoney]

UGH.... 12Z GFS brings a front in Saturday and stalls it out thru early next week until 91L does the recurve to finally allow the front to move thru the area. Hope this is wrong or major forecast changes will be needed for this weekend and beyond. Lots of folks have plans including the WEBN fireworks on Sunday night.

Yea , Tim mentioned this scenario as a possibility yesterday for this weekend. Need a day or two for any confidence on the holiday weekend

[tron777]

12Z Euro is not in 100% agreement with the GFS for the weekend... just a very small chance Sunday with 50 / 50 chances Labor Day and better coverage thereafter with the front hanging out thru Thursday. So some agreement for next week anyway at this time.

[Bgoney]

12Z Euro is not in 100% agreement with the GFS for the weekend... just a very small chance Sunday with 50 / 50 chances Labor Day and better coverage thereafter with the front hanging out thru Thursday. So some agreement for next week anyway at this time.

I'm going to stick with the previous percentages for the time being for the weekend 20-30% range , until better agreement way or the other

[tron777]

12Z Euro is not in 100% agreement with the GFS for the weekend... just a very small chance Sunday with 50 / 50 chances Labor Day and better coverage thereafter with the front hanging out thru Thursday. So some agreement for next week anyway at this time.

I'm going to stick with the previous percentages for the time being for the weekend 20-30% range , until better agreement way or the other

Same here. With t-storms it's tough to pinpoint coverage and rainfall amounts this early (as most folks know) so I'm in agreement. Stick with slight chance POPS until we get closer to see if these trends are real or not.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! It appears that we will have mid 80s on the 1st day of Sept with low humidity. By Thurs and Fri, the humidity begins to increase. Mid 80s Thurs, and U80s Fri is expected. Then for the weekend still looking at mid and U80s with slight chance POPS needed esp in the south., I-70 Crew likely staying dry. So I like the following odds here.

I-70 Crew: Sat and Sun dry. 20-30% Labor Day
Cincy Tristate area N of the river: Sat dry, Sun 20% and Labor Day 40%
NKY and folks S of the river: Sat, 10-20%, Sunday 30% and Labor Day 50%

Likely coverage all areas for Tuesday of next week. Then we'll just have to wait and see if that front continues to hang up over us for the rest of the week (thanks to the tropics) or does it blow thru should 91L NOT develop. That remains to be seen.

[tpweather]

I want to add on to the post by Les this morning concerning the upcoming weekend and next week. I believe he is on target and I will throw out my reasoning. There looks to be front though probably rather weak. The tropics imo will have an impact and especially the system in the Atlantic. There will be some GOM moisture returning but how far north and will it interact with the front over the weekend is maybe especially folks further south. Getting to my main point and that is the system in the Atlantic. If this system can get its act together this will many times sort of grab much of the moisture nearby in the Atlantic and robs other areas of that moisture. If this system stays weaker and further east which may happen then you have the Atlantic moisture near the coast that may and try to throw some over the mountains. Again this would help folks mainly south and east of CVG but something we need to watch. Either way this weekend does not look like a washout but since its a holiday weekend many folks have plans and we try to give the best forecast possible.

[tron777]

Wonderful post Tim and if you look at the 12Z GFS it does favor areas SE of I-71 for the best chances for rain so this run matches your thoughts perfectly!

[tron777]

12Z Euro keeps everyone dry on Saturday. For Sunday, it has a decent chance for storms in the afternoon in our Western counties. Say from the I-75 corridor on West. Then everything dies down after the sun sets so the WEBN fireworks would be dry per this run. For Labor Day, 50 / 50 chance all areas.

Then for next week after Labor Day, the model has several lows moving along the stalled out front so if correct, likely POPS for Tues and Wed becoming more isolated by Thursday. Scattered, almost likely by Friday as the front finally passes through the area.

[tpweather]

Les, I believe how the flow ends up this weekend will determine the areas that have a better shot of showers. The GOM will send some moisture northward and the Atlantic may send some over the mountains later in the weekend. Again I believe over the 3 day weekend that most of the time you will be rain free but each day especially in the afternoon and evening you may see a couple of hours where it could rain but again trying to figure out where that happens this far out is almost impossible.

[tron777]

Les, I believe how the flow ends up this weekend will determine the areas that have a better shot of showers. The GOM will send some moisture northward and the Atlantic may send some over the mountains later in the weekend. Again I believe over the 3 day weekend that most of the time you will be rain free but each day especially in the afternoon and evening you may see a couple of hours where it could rain but again trying to figure out where that happens this far out is almost impossible.

I agree Tim, it's a little early to pinpoint the best areas. Although, I like what you said previously about the southern and eastern counties having the best chance. I'll go with that unless the data going forward suggests otherwise.

[tron777]

Good morning all and welcome to Sept and the first day of Meteorological Fall! 50s again this morning. 57 here, CVG dropped to 59. Humidity still won't be bad today with the mid 80s expected. U80s and more humid tomorrow but still dry. Concern is mounting for the weekend with increasing rain chances on the overnight guidance. If we see this again this afternoon when the 12Z runs come in then we may need to alter POPS and location where the best rain chances may fall as well. I still believe that we won't see a wash out. I still believe that the further one goes north, the rain chances drop off. South and SE IMO are still the best areas. We'll see what happens as we go forward in time, but just want folks to know that the risk of getting a storm or two this weekend is there. Labor Day and really everyday next week, the threat for storms will be there as the front stalls across the area and the Gulf is wide open for business. It'll be a humid and tropical like pattern. Not too concerned right now with severe wx, just localized heavy rainfall. Sept is typically a dry month around here, but we're not going to start out that way. It appears for the first week or so of the month, we are picking up where Aug left off.

[tron777]

I'd also like to wish a very Happy Birthday to wxpatriot! Enjoy your day!!!

[tpweather]

Good morning all and welcome to Sept and the first day of Meteorological Fall! 50s again this morning. 57 here, CVG dropped to 59. Humidity still won't be bad today with the mid 80s expected. U80s and more humid tomorrow but still dry. Concern is mounting for the weekend with increasing rain chances on the overnight guidance. If we see this again this afternoon when the 12Z runs come in then we may need to alter POPS and location where the best rain chances may fall as well. I still believe that we won't see a wash out. I still believe that the further one goes north, the rain chances drop off. South and SE IMO are still the best areas. We'll see what happens as we go forward in time, but just want folks to know that the risk of getting a storm or two this weekend is there. Labor Day and really everyday next week, the threat for storms will be there as the front stalls across the area and the Gulf is wide open for business. It'll be a humid and tropical like pattern. Not too concerned right now with severe wx, just localized heavy rainfall. Sept is typically a dry month around here, but we're not going to start out that way. It appears for the first week or so of the month, we are picking up where Aug left off.

Good Morning Les. Great forecast and models have sort of went back and forth this week in concerns for rainfall this weekend. Still believe that the system in the Atlantic is having a hard time forming into a nice system and is part of the reason we may see more rainfall around here. Tons of tropical moisture in the GOM,and the Atlantic and with a trough likely starting Saturday and probably lasting much of next week rain chances are higher than normal for this time of year plus any tropical system will stay away from the eastern trough.I agree with you it won't be a washout but the downpours will cause some isolated heavy rains in a short period. I believe next week will tend to be a pattern that is very muggy and quite a few partly to mostly cloudy days so daytime highs will be limited to the low 80's at best. Can we get a 90 degree temp Saturday or Sunday and again there is a slight chance but most likely stay in the upper 80's.

[tron777]

We are def on the same page Tim with our thinking for this weekend and next week. We also agree on the tropics. As long as that front (trough) hangs out over the Eastern CONUS, the East Coast should remain protected and the TC's should remain as fish storms. Pretty crazy it is now Sept and all we have to track in the ATL basin is a crappy looking TD that isn't going to bother anyone at all. 91L is still 91L and has been struggling to get a closed circulation. Good news for the country as a whole at least.

[wxpatriot]

I'd also like to wish a very Happy Birthday to wxpatriot! Enjoy your day!!!

Why thank you! I am 24 yet again! Officially 60. I have been lurking since the Rich A. days. Thanks to all for the most accurate forecasts around this area. I check in just about everyday.

I know several posters on here. Leaving Anderson Township and building a farmhouse in Hamersville on our new farm. When I move in hopefully by November 1, I promise to post the weather stats from Hamersville.

[tron777]

I'd also like to wish a very Happy Birthday to wxpatriot! Enjoy your day!!!

Why thank you! I am 24 yet again! Officially 60. I have been lurking since the Rich A. days. Thanks to all for the most accurate forecasts around this area. I check in just about everyday.

I know several posters on here. Leaving Anderson Township and building a farmhouse in Hamersville on our new farm. When I move in hopefully by November 1, I promise to post the weather stats from Hamersville.

It's finally nice to know your name after all these years! That sounds awesome too (moving out to the country)! I've got another 20 years give or take before I can retire and that's a goal of mine too. Suburban life is damn near like city life anyway and it gets old. Also glad to see we'll have another poster in our SE Crew zone to go along with Matt over there in Ripley!

[tpweather]

I'd also like to wish a very Happy Birthday to wxpatriot! Enjoy your day!!!

Why thank you! I am 24 yet again! Officially 60. I have been lurking since the Rich A. days. Thanks to all for the most accurate forecasts around this area. I check in just about everyday.

I know several posters on here. Leaving Anderson Township and building a farmhouse in Hamersville on our new farm. When I move in hopefully by November 1, I promise to post the weather stats from Hamersville.

Happy Birthday Young Man. Hopefully everything goes well with the farmhouse.

[tron777]

12Z NAM only goes out to 8pm Sunday evening and at this time, the main low is well to the SW only slowly coming our way (probably by Labor Day if this run went out further) Anyway, only isolated coverage would be expected should this run pan out and most people's plans would be okay. Models are def struggling here with the speed and position of this next system. The speed of the front coming in from the north as well as the strength and position of the high over S Canada just N of the Lakes. There is also a trough over SE Canada and Northern New England this weekend. So those are the main players on the field here to keep an eye on in addition to the tropics.

[tpweather]

Les have you noticed that the mjo has been in phase 2 for around 10days and we started to see some action in the Atlantic. Saying that the mjo is heading towards neutral at the moment and could be one of the reasons the tropical systems are having a hard time in getting organized.

[tron777]

Les have you noticed that the mjo has been in phase 2 for around 10days and we started to see some action in the Atlantic. Saying that the mjo is heading towards neutral at the moment and could be one of the reasons the tropical systems are having a hard time in getting organized.

I think there are several reasons. The MJO could be one and that could allow for the Pacific basin(s) to have more action, which we are seeing. Second, wind shear, third, the African dust and finally dry air. See all of the images below showing these things and it's clear why the season has been slow.

AussieMJO.gif

wind shear.gif

Afican Dust.png

Water Vapor.png

[tpweather]

Les you are correct and all these together will no doubt keep the Atlantic rather quiet. The Pacific is starting to get active but once again overall still below normal in terms of storms.

[tron777]

Les you are correct and all these together will no doubt keep the Atlantic rather quiet. The Pacific is starting to get active but once again overall still below normal in terms of storms.

Totally agree. As a whole globally it has been below normal in all basins.