Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[tpweather]

That is rather impressive on the low side. I see the mjo went into phase 2 the past couple of days. Phases 1-3 are considered the best for tropical development in the Atlantic. How about the pacific as well with the number of storms well below the average.

[tron777]

That is rather impressive on the low side. I see the mjo went into phase 2 the past couple of days. Phases 1-3 are considered the best for tropical development in the Atlantic. How about the pacific as well with the number of storms well below the average.

Def below avg on a global scale Tim. Finally one typhoon in the West PAC but even there, the systems have been rather weak overall. Just one of those years where the tropics are slow. Would not surprise me if the Atlantic stays dead. A little action is probably coming but it's going to be a below if not well below avg ACE year in my opinion.

[tpweather]

That is rather impressive on the low side. I see the mjo went into phase 2 the past couple of days. Phases 1-3 are considered the best for tropical development in the Atlantic. How about the pacific as well with the number of storms well below the average.

Def below avg on a global scale Tim. Finally one typhoon in the West PAC but even there, the systems have been rather weak overall. Just one of those years where the tropics are slow. Would not surprise me if the Atlantic stays dead. A little action is probably coming but it's going to be a below if not well below avg ACE year in my opinion.

Pretty much the opposite of what the so called experts predicted.

[tron777]

That is rather impressive on the low side. I see the mjo went into phase 2 the past couple of days. Phases 1-3 are considered the best for tropical development in the Atlantic. How about the pacific as well with the number of storms well below the average.

Def below avg on a global scale Tim. Finally one typhoon in the West PAC but even there, the systems have been rather weak overall. Just one of those years where the tropics are slow. Would not surprise me if the Atlantic stays dead. A little action is probably coming but it's going to be a below if not well below avg ACE year in my opinion.

Pretty much the opposite of what the so called experts predicted.

Exactly. I wonder of the Tonga volcanic eruption has anything to do with it? A lot of CO2 and water vapor was injected into the stratosphere. We've seen weird things going on as a result. Big drought, big flash flooding, and quiet tropics. I wonder if the weirdness will continue this winter? Probably.

[Bgoney]

That is rather impressive on the low side. I see the mjo went into phase 2 the past couple of days. Phases 1-3 are considered the best for tropical development in the Atlantic. How about the pacific as well with the number of storms well below the average.

Def below avg on a global scale Tim. Finally one typhoon in the West PAC but even there, the systems have been rather weak overall. Just one of those years where the tropics are slow. Would not surprise me if the Atlantic stays dead. A little action is probably coming but it's going to be a below if not well below avg ACE year in my opinion.

Pretty much the opposite of what the so called experts predicted.

The tropical expert community is in a panic as they can't find their ACE with both hands and a flashlight. Just another example of x not equalling y in the climate department

[tron777]

That is rather impressive on the low side. I see the mjo went into phase 2 the past couple of days. Phases 1-3 are considered the best for tropical development in the Atlantic. How about the pacific as well with the number of storms well below the average.

Def below avg on a global scale Tim. Finally one typhoon in the West PAC but even there, the systems have been rather weak overall. Just one of those years where the tropics are slow. Would not surprise me if the Atlantic stays dead. A little action is probably coming but it's going to be a below if not well below avg ACE year in my opinion.

Pretty much the opposite of what the so called experts predicted.

The tropical expert community is in a panic as they can't find their ACE with both hands and a flashlight. Just another example of x not equalling y in the climate department

The choas theory at work

[tron777]

EPS showing potential tropical low tracks over the next 10 days. We saw this a few weeks ago when Mike posted an image similar to this one. Nothing occurred. We are closer to September now though so we'll see if anything can get going in the next couple of weeks.

EPSTropical.jpg

[tron777]

Still tracking 2 tropical waves. The one in the central Caribbean has a 20% chance, with the far Atlantic wave having a 30% chance. Just a tough year.

[tron777]

A 70% chance now, we've got something cooking...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

Nice Video from DT on the Tropical ATL and current Invest 91L in the Atlantic basin.

[tron777]

Track and Intensity Guidance for 91L:

storm_91.gif

91L_intensity_latest.png

[tron777]

91L Visy and IR Loops:

91LVisy.gif

91LInfra.gif

[tron777]

91L has a 50% chance now in 48 hours, and an 80% chance in the next 5 days. We also have a new wave getting ready to come off of Africa with a 30% chance in the next 5 days. Is the ATL finally waking up?

[Bgoney]

91L trending north in the days ahead before a recurve ots

[tron777]

91L trending north in the days ahead before a recurve ots

In addition, the GFS finally gave up on the Gulf system too (Which the Euro never did show lol). If that trough can maintain over the East, the CONUS should be protected for a while. If a high builds in then all bets are off. We need the +PNA pattern to persist to protect the CONUS from any system that forms. So far, that's exactly what we are seeing.

[Bgoney]

91L trending north in the days ahead before a recurve ots

In addition, the GFS finally gave up on the Gulf system too (Which the Euro never did show lol). If that trough can maintain over the East, the CONUS should be protected for a while. If a high builds in then all bets are off. We need the +PNA pattern to persist to protect the CONUS from any system that forms. So far, that's exactly what we are seeing.

That's pretty much how I see it , until around mid month as mentioned in August thread this morning. At least the hurricane lovers can track something over the next week or so to keep them somewhat happy

[tpweather]

Nice Video from DT on the Tropical ATL and current Invest 91L in the Atlantic basin.

I enjoy DT and is longer term looks. I believe he looks for ridging to take a stronger hold on the east over the next 10 days. One of his maps though show a Greenland Block with and upper low to the southwest of there. If this block is really strong this IMO can force a more southerly trough in the east and this would push the storm out to sea. Everything he said besides that I agreed with and understand that if the high does expand more than likely a tropical system would be forced to head underneath the high. I could go either way but at this point and will need to watch how weather in the northern regions can end up affecting the tropics.

[Bgoney]

Strong easterlies incoming, crushing hopes of a more active tropics over the next 10 days

sst_wind_5day_drupal (1).png

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[tpweather]

Strong easterlies incoming, crushing hopes of a more active tropics over the next 10 days



sst_wind_5day_drupal (1).png

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

I agree and yes there will be some systems that try and develop but those easterlies crush many storms. By then we are at the peak of the hurricane season and as we all know well below normal even though I keep hearing about this big outburst of storms that many met's are still calling for and not sure if they see something different are they hoping those predictions come true if they hype it up lol.

[tron777]

Strong easterlies incoming, crushing hopes of a more active tropics over the next 10 days



sst_wind_5day_drupal (1).png

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

I agree and yes there will be some systems that try and develop but those easterlies crush many storms. By then we are at the peak of the hurricane season and as we all know well below normal even though I keep hearing about this big outburst of storms that many met's are still calling for and not sure if they see something different are they hoping those predictions come true if they hype it up lol.

MJO is in Phase 2 now solidly so that does make the Atlantic basin more favorable for development. Odds are we should see a few named systems but even if we do, if the +PNA pattern persists then at least the East Coast would be protected unless something can sneak into the Gulf. Currently, not seeing that happening right now. I think 91L will develop but it should be a fish storm unless the models are wrong about the upcoming 500 MB Pattern. For now, a fish storm is my call for 91L (I believe Bgoney agrees with that same thinking).

[tpweather]

Strong easterlies incoming, crushing hopes of a more active tropics over the next 10 days



sst_wind_5day_drupal (1).png

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

I agree and yes there will be some systems that try and develop but those easterlies crush many storms. By then we are at the peak of the hurricane season and as we all know well below normal even though I keep hearing about this big outburst of storms that many met's are still calling for and not sure if they see something different are they hoping those predictions come true if they hype it up lol.

MJO is in Phase 2 now solidly so that does make the Atlantic basin more favorable for development. Odds are we should see a few named systems but even if we do, if the +PNA pattern persists then at least the East Coast would be protected unless something can sneak into the Gulf. Currently, not seeing that happening right now. I think 91L will develop but it should be a fish storm unless the models are wrong about the upcoming 500 MB Pattern. For now, a fish storm is my call for 91L (I believe Bgoney agrees with that same thinking).

I am still 50/50 on this system If the strong Greenland block DT showed on his video happens then there will be a deeper trough in the eastern USA and no doubt a fish storm. If the block is not as strong and we get ridging in the central USA to build in quickly then I can see the storm going south of the ridge and a coastal USA storm is possible. Still going to watch over the next few days before I can really give a decent forecast and 50/50 on each side is not a forecast lol

[Bgoney]

Strong easterlies incoming, crushing hopes of a more active tropics over the next 10 days



sst_wind_5day_drupal (1).png

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

I agree and yes there will be some systems that try and develop but those easterlies crush many storms. By then we are at the peak of the hurricane season and as we all know well below normal even though I keep hearing about this big outburst of storms that many met's are still calling for and not sure if they see something different are they hoping those predictions come true if they hype it up lol.

MJO is in Phase 2 now solidly so that does make the Atlantic basin more favorable for development. Odds are we should see a few named systems but even if we do, if the +PNA pattern persists then at least the East Coast would be protected unless something can sneak into the Gulf. Currently, not seeing that happening right now. I think 91L will develop but it should be a fish storm unless the models are wrong about the upcoming 500 MB Pattern. For now, a fish storm is my call for 91L (I believe Bgoney agrees with that same thinking).

Yes, I agree. MJO in phase 2 and an ever so slight tick up in tropics, but it just doesn't make the tropics explode since it dies a quick death instead of advancing eastward. Still talking next 10 days or so

[tron777]

MJO is in Phase 2 now solidly so that does make the Atlantic basin more favorable for development. Odds are we should see a few named systems but even if we do, if the +PNA pattern persists then at least the East Coast would be protected unless something can sneak into the Gulf. Currently, not seeing that happening right now. I think 91L will develop but it should be a fish storm unless the models are wrong about the upcoming 500 MB Pattern. For now, a fish storm is my call for 91L (I believe Bgoney agrees with that same thinking).

Yes, I agree. MJO in phase 2 and an ever so slight tick up in tropics, but it just doesn't make the tropics explode since it dies a quick death instead of advancing eastward. Still talking next 10 days or so

Same here. After mid Sept, we should see more tropical activity if it's going to happen, it should happen then with more of a possibility of an East Coast threat should the +PNA relax by then. Once we get into mid October, the tropics should rapidly shut down as a more Autumn like pattern finally takes over for good. So basically, a couple more warm spells for us are possible going forward, but nothing major. 85 to 90, we can handle that in September. Mid Sept thru mid Oct is prime time for the tropics. If we don't see much occur by mid Sept, then it's just a dud season. We don't see slow seasons all that often but this certainly could be one of them.

[tron777]

Odds on 91L are still at 50 / 80 and the African Wave is at 20 / 40.

[tron777]

We now have 3 waves with the following odds of development:

N ATL: 30 / 50
91L: 60 / 80
African Wave: 20 / 40