August 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues to show a small chance Friday with a daily chance for rain next week with a slow moving frontal boundary. We also continue to watch the tropics to see if a Gulf or SE Coast system can get going to impact the pattern.

The 12Z Euro has the same thing on Fri and better chances Monday and Tues of next week but the front blows thru and it's done. The front does not hang up like on the GFS. I think that if the tropics develop something, the front will get hung up. If no tropical development, then I think the front can make its way thru. We shall see!

[tpweather]

12Z GFS continues to show a small chance Friday with a daily chance for rain next week with a slow moving frontal boundary. We also continue to watch the tropics to see if a Gulf or SE Coast system can get going to impact the pattern.

The 12Z Euro has the same thing on Fri and better chances Monday and Tues of next week but the front blows thru and it's done. The front does not hang up like on the GFS. I think that if the tropics develop something, the front will get hung up. If no tropical development, then I think the front can make its way thru. We shall see!

Good Afternoon Les. Great Post and really the tropics dictate many aspects of the weather this time of year. We know they can get busy and fronts really have a hard time going to far south. This year and the tropics are a tad more active but still the activity is nothing to right home about. If this continues then fronts will be able to make it through our area and this can lead to some decent weather behind the front. Without the tropics throwing tons of warm air northward this can lead to northern and central Canada getting rather cool in September and this can bring down a decent shot or two of really nice fall air. Sometimes you need the tropical systems to ramp up move rather far north and that helps bring in some cooler air but also without much tropical activity this helps those areas in Canada get rather cool fast as they are losing daylight hours quickly.

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues to show a small chance Friday with a daily chance for rain next week with a slow moving frontal boundary. We also continue to watch the tropics to see if a Gulf or SE Coast system can get going to impact the pattern.

The 12Z Euro has the same thing on Fri and better chances Monday and Tues of next week but the front blows thru and it's done. The front does not hang up like on the GFS. I think that if the tropics develop something, the front will get hung up. If no tropical development, then I think the front can make its way thru. We shall see!

Good Afternoon Les. Great Post and really the tropics dictate many aspects of the weather this time of year. We know they can get busy and fronts really have a hard time going to far south. This year and the tropics are a tad more active but still the activity is nothing to right home about. If this continues then fronts will be able to make it through our area and this can lead to some decent weather behind the front. Without the tropics throwing tons of warm air northward this can lead to northern and central Canada getting rather cool in September and this can bring down a decent shot or two of really nice fall air. Sometimes you need the tropical systems to ramp up move rather far north and that helps bring in some cooler air but also without much tropical activity this helps those areas in Canada get rather cool fast as they are losing daylight hours quickly.

Hey Tim, good afternoon! It's going to mean the difference between a refreshing airmass moving in or staying humid with t-storm chances. Too early to call and we should know more in about a week from now.

[tron777]

84 at CVG today, 86 here. Humidity is not bad so it's nice outside at the moment.

[tpweather]

84 at CVG today, 86 here. Humidity is not bad so it's nice outside at the moment.

Les not bad for late August. Should get back to a more normal late August pattern with dew points going up somewhat. Could we see 90 on Sunday is really the only day I see that could happen. Again maybe some rain early next week but we are in the time of year that cold fronts need help from the GOM or we need a tropical system to throw its moisture this way. My lawn is looking great in some place and horrible in other places but going to wait and cut because I don't see any major rainfall until maybe next week.

[tron777]

84 at CVG today, 86 here. Humidity is not bad so it's nice outside at the moment.

Les not bad for late August. Should get back to a more normal late August pattern with dew points going up somewhat. Could we see 90 on Sunday is really the only day I see that could happen. Again maybe some rain early next week but we are in the time of year that cold fronts need help from the GOM or we need a tropical system to throw its moisture this way. My lawn is looking great in some place and horrible in other places but going to wait and cut because I don't see any major rainfall until maybe next week.

I agree Tim with all points of your post. Don't have anything to add to be honest. Kind of boring for us until next week when we track the progression of the front and the tropics should they actually flare up. Lawn is lush and green here like in Spring. I could mow every 5-7 days if I wanted too (but I don't)

[Bgoney]

The most comfortable August in history continues for one more day anyway.. Only crickets from the blogosphere of how low this August dewpoints have been of late. It will be back up to August standards for Friday and the weekend before another cool down after Tuesday

[tron777]

I agree... a lovely morning out there! 60 here! Expecting the mid 80s again today, normal for this time of year. Chance POPS tomorrow but as usual not everyone will see rain. Only excepting about 30-40% coverage on this one but it will act to bring in more humidity as previously stated.

[tpweather]

The most comfortable August in history continues for one more day anyway.. Only crickets from the blogosphere of how low this August dewpoints have been of late. It will be back up to August standards for Friday and the weekend before another cool down after Tuesday

Just made me laugh

[Bgoney]

The hard on the eyes JMA maps for September still showing good moisture for southern plains , OV, TV, and SE parts of US, most likely due to expected tropical systems. Drought improving monsoon season rolls on also for 4 corners region. Temps look warm for cvgland the first week but after that generally normal to below temps

[tron777]

The hard on the eyes JMA maps for September still showing good moisture for southern plains , OV, TV, and SE parts of US, most likely due to expected tropical systems. Drought improving monsoon season rolls on also for 4 corners region. Temps look warm for cvgland the first week but after that generally normal to below temps

I agree with the moisture being shown due to a lot of cold fronts continuing to drop in from the NW. We'll see about the tropics taking part in all of this. Always a chance since it's Sept but so far, its been dead as everyone knows. Just kind of one of those "I'll believe it, when I see it" kind of things.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

The hard on the eyes JMA maps for September still showing good moisture for southern plains , OV, TV, and SE parts of US, most likely due to expected tropical systems. Drought improving monsoon season rolls on also for 4 corners region. Temps look warm for cvgland the first week but after that generally normal to below temps

I agree with the moisture being shown due to a lot of cold fronts continuing to drop in from the NW. We'll see about the tropics taking part in all of this. Always a chance since it's Sept but so far, its been dead as everyone knows. Just kind of one of those "I'll believe it, when I see it" kind of things.

I believe it has a lot to do with a general trough in the central part of the country and this is bringing cold fronts further south than normal for September in that part of the country and these fronts are able to tap the gulf moisture. We have seen this over the past few days in Mississippi and Alabama and places nearby.

[tron777]

The hard on the eyes JMA maps for September still showing good moisture for southern plains , OV, TV, and SE parts of US, most likely due to expected tropical systems. Drought improving monsoon season rolls on also for 4 corners region. Temps look warm for cvgland the first week but after that generally normal to below temps

I agree with the moisture being shown due to a lot of cold fronts continuing to drop in from the NW. We'll see about the tropics taking part in all of this. Always a chance since it's Sept but so far, its been dead as everyone knows. Just kind of one of those "I'll believe it, when I see it" kind of things.

I believe it has a lot to do with a general trough in the central part of the country and this is bringing cold fronts further south than normal for September in that part of the country and these fronts are able to tap the gulf moisture. We have seen this over the past few days in Mississippi and Alabama and places nearby.

Our fronts continue to stall out across the south producing the flooding there. Next front for next week, may do the same thing once it lays out in a West to East fashion. That may block the first tropical system (should it develop) from impacting us. After Labor Day, we shall see but that could be a different ball game there.

[tpweather]

Great video from Brian. We talk a lot about tropical systems but just because we don't have a tropical system does not mean its quiet. During August and September the southern half of the country is usually very tropical in nature and many places have their highest rainfall totals for the year. We are usually on the edge of this pattern and some years we get hit and others not so much. Matter of fact when the tropical systems are fewer in number like we have seen so far this season we can get more rainfall than normal. Many times the tropical systems form a nice ridging area around the system itself which provides warm and dry conditions. Next week we may see one system head into Mexico but nothing strong at all but only adds more moisture to the southern part of the USA. We will need to watch next week as tons of tropical moisture available but also some fall like temps to the north. Yes some folks will get rain next week and the further south you live the more likely this will happen. To early to figure out where the rain may fall but starting Monday and lasting most of the week the rain chances are higher than normal.

[tron777]

Monday and Tuesday are the best chances currently. We are waiting to see if the front plows on thru and that's it, or if it stalls over us for most of the week. GFS has been hanging the front up and the Euro has been blowing it on thru. Place your bets!

[tron777]

12Z GFS has the small chance tomorrow then for next week, the front lingers across the region esp S of I-70. This is thanks to the tropics as we have 1 storm moving west into either TX or Mexico then a second one coming along towards the SE Coast. The GFS recurves that second one back out to sea with yet a third stronger system coming in off the SE Coast (probably a fish storm too). We'll see... the storm or storms have to actually develop first before the model can even be trusted.

[tron777]

[tron777]

12Z Euro continues to blow the front thru on Tues then we're dry. So far, no model seems to be backing down from their respective solutions.

[tron777]

84 both here and at CVG today.

[cloudy72]

My high was 85 today.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Good morning all and a Happy Friday to you! 66 here this morning with an uptick in humidity as well. There have been a couple of isolated cells around. We'll have one more chance this afternoon for a few more to pop. Most will stay dry, and only a few will see anything. Then it's the triple H's this weekend followed by an active pattern as we roll into next week.

[tron777]

Overnight guidance remains the same. GFS wants to stall the front out and the Euro continues to blast it on thru. I think that if the tropics stay quiet, the front will come thru on Tues. If the tropics do get something going, then the front should slow down. We'll see!

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. Great Post and the CMC has come closer to the GFS for next week in stalling out the front. The GFS is usually better in the summer especially when the tropics are involved. Saying that the tropics are still in that sleepy mode and trying to wake up but having a hard time. The front itself is not the strongest in the world and not sure the tropics are ready to make an impact. May be one of those times where we sort of split the difference and have the front close enough to us through Wednesday. I would love to see some rain as the ground is by far the driest it has been all year and I will clean up the yard this weekend because some of the early leaves are falling and you can tell we are headed for fall.