August 2022 Weather Discussion

All weather related things can be found here! From snow storms to severe weather including the best model analysis and long range forecasting around!
User avatar
cloudy72
Tropical Depression
Posts: 2168
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:22 am
Location: Miamisburg, OH

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by cloudy72 »

Somehow managed 0.03” this evening! LOL
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH

The KING of the domes! :king:

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

We got whacked just after 9pm. Another 1.16" at CVG and about the same here, an inch! Over 6" of rain now down here for the month of August thru the first 9 days!

CVG Aug total: 6.25"
Normal to date: 1.09"
Departure: + 5.16 "
Last year at this time: 0.19"
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
tpweather
Hurricane
Posts: 6169
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Location: Edgewood

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tpweather »

tron777 wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:13 am We got whacked just after 9pm. Another 1.16" at CVG and about the same here, an inch! Over 6" of rain now down here for the month of August thru the first 9 days!

CVG Aug total: 6.25"
Normal to date: 1.09"
Departure: + 5.16 "
Last year at this time: 0.19"
Good Morning Les and hopefully some of that fell in Edgewood. Last time you stole most of the rainfall. Btw so muggy down here in SC and already did the morning walk before the sun rose.
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4351
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

tron777 wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:13 am We got whacked just after 9pm. Another 1.16" at CVG and about the same here, an inch! Over 6" of rain now down here for the month of August thru the first 9 days!

CVG Aug total: 6.25"
Normal to date: 1.09"
Departure: + 5.16 "
Last year at this time: 0.19"
Impressive, but isolated. Better rains of course have been along the River and south, but I'd say the majority of ILNs FA is close to normal or below avg for the month. Here in East Hamilton they could still use more rain , as parts have continued to miss out on soaking rains
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
tpweather
Hurricane
Posts: 6169
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Location: Edgewood

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tpweather »

Bgoney wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:42 am
tron777 wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:13 am We got whacked just after 9pm. Another 1.16" at CVG and about the same here, an inch! Over 6" of rain now down here for the month of August thru the first 9 days!

CVG Aug total: 6.25"
Normal to date: 1.09"
Departure: + 5.16 "
Last year at this time: 0.19"
Impressive, but isolated. Better rains of course have been along the River and south, but I'd say the majority of ILNs FA is close to normal or below avg for the month. Here in East Hamilton they could still use more rain , as parts have continued to miss out on soaking rains
Yes and much like summer time rains. Most summers are like this though maybe not quite this high in certain areas. Like I mentioned before when traveling down to SC that south of Lexington everything looks like a rain forest with so much growth and everything a bright green. Bad part of course was all the flooding in eastern Kentucky.
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

tpweather wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:21 am
tron777 wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:13 am We got whacked just after 9pm. Another 1.16" at CVG and about the same here, an inch! Over 6" of rain now down here for the month of August thru the first 9 days!

CVG Aug total: 6.25"
Normal to date: 1.09"
Departure: + 5.16 "
Last year at this time: 0.19"
Good Morning Les and hopefully some of that fell in Edgewood. Last time you stole most of the rainfall. Btw so muggy down here in SC and already did the morning walk before the sun rose.
LOL! Sorry about that. The storms were coming in from the SW last night. I don't know what it is but Boone Co has been on a roll lately. Hope I don't use all my luck up now and lose in the snow dept come winter. :lol:
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Bgoney wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:42 am
tron777 wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:13 am We got whacked just after 9pm. Another 1.16" at CVG and about the same here, an inch! Over 6" of rain now down here for the month of August thru the first 9 days!

CVG Aug total: 6.25"
Normal to date: 1.09"
Departure: + 5.16 "
Last year at this time: 0.19"
Impressive, but isolated. Better rains of course have been along the River and south, but I'd say the majority of ILNs FA is close to normal or below avg for the month. Here in East Hamilton they could still use more rain , as parts have continued to miss out on soaking rains
For sure. It is like night and day if you travel N to S across the region. I-70 folks on north really need it. 50 / 50 further south and then down here, we're good to go and could use a drying out period.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

I'm going with the river on south for today as having the best chance for additional rainfall. Then we get that second front Thurs night which really brings in that delightful air! Dews will go from the 70s today, L60s tomorrow then the 40s by Friday!!! Saturday also gorgeous, make outdoor plans now! Sunday is a day where we may see rain, we may not. Depends on the speed and track of that next low. Thinking Monday into Tues right now for the best chances with that system, but all it will do is reinforce the trough over the Eastern US which none of us will mind one bit. :lol:

Long Term still looking troughy for us with the heat out West. +PNA pattern. If the tropics can get going, it would leave the East Coast in a bad spot for issues but so far, so good there. We will watch it naturally. :)
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Checking the mesoscale analysis page on SPC's site this morning and per the visible sat, I don't see much sun coming our way for a while. Lot of low level moisture around. Dews are still juicy along and S of the river, 1.9" PWATS. Also seeing that instability gradient forming again too like yesterday. That front is close to the River so we are still fair game for action in our S counties.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Watch for patchy dense fog too. 8am obs had CVG only at 1/4 mile vis. Fog has lifted here, but as the sun was coming up this morning, it was foggy here for about an hour or so.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4351
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

Seeing some sun and patchy blue skies here in Indian Hill atm
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

I had a peak of sun for about 5 mins now back to overcast. :lol: 500 J/KG of CAPE for the I-71 corridor and 1000 for our SE Crew.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4351
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

79 here on east side of Hamilton County. Convective temp.? Edit: I found it , 83
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Seeing another peak of sun here.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update...
No major changes made to the near term period forecast.
Widespread cloud cover will initially limit surface heating
along and south of the broad surface boundary. Late evening
convection disrupted the surface flow but it appears the front
is near the Ohio River area. It may nudge northward slightly
this morning before additional convection forms this afternoon.
Morning upper air sounding still shows considerable moisture
(1.92 PWAT) and weak effective shear (14 knots). Expect more
heavy rain showers/thunderstorms this afternoon so likely no
changes to the flood watch until convection clears this evening.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
airwolf76
EF1 Tornado
Posts: 408
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2021 11:11 am
Location: Pa

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by airwolf76 »

Thanks for all the Birthday wishes everyone ! :thankyoublue:
22'/23' snowfall > 11"
23'/24' snowfall > 19.5"
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Radar at this hour showing scattered convection over our SE counties as well as Central KY.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Next chance of rain is Thurs night with that secondary front coming thru. Coverage and amounts are low so not a big deal really. Then the 12Z GFS nails us on Sunday with that next low. If correct, could be a very cool day on Sunday with the clouds and showers around along with cool NW Flow aloft. U60s to L70s likely for highs should this solution pan out. A little taste of September? :) Bring it! :) This does agree with the 0Z or overnight Euro model run too.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

One loan shower in Kenton Co between Edgewood and Independence. Otherwise, most everything else is in our E and SE counties. Scattered at best. Central KY big winners today.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
tpweather
Hurricane
Posts: 6169
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Location: Edgewood

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tpweather »

tron777 wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 1:28 pm One loan shower in Kenton Co between Edgewood and Independence. Otherwise, most everything else is in our E and SE counties. Scattered at best. Central KY big winners today.
Maybe just maybe that hit my house since I live in the southern part of Edgewood. Les could you go over to my house and see if its raining lol
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

tpweather wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:15 pm
tron777 wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 1:28 pm One loan shower in Kenton Co between Edgewood and Independence. Otherwise, most everything else is in our E and SE counties. Scattered at best. Central KY big winners today.
Maybe just maybe that hit my house since I live in the southern part of Edgewood. Les could you go over to my house and see if its raining lol
:lol: We'll put down a trace for you because literally, if you got anything at all that literally would have been it.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

12Z Euro coming in with a wet Sunday morning.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22870
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: August 2022 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

I'm going to go ahead and issue my temp and precip forecast for the next 5-7 days for CVG Land.

Thurs: 83 / 67 - Dry during the day. 20% of a shower overnight with the next frontal passage.
Fri - 78 / 60 - Dry
Sat - 79 / 57 - Dry
Sun - 72 / 61 - Light rain esp first half of the day.
Mon - 78 / 58 - Dry
Tue - 80 / 64 - Dry
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
Post Reply