Solar Activity

[Bgoney]

The CME was indeed a rather big one, but only briefly sparking a G1 geomagnetic storm (far from the G3 that was expected). Overall, the official predictions from NOAA and NASA were way off in magnitude, in regards to effects on earth,, which has actually been the case for the past few solar flares. Which is only an indication of just how far we have to go, of how little we know, and of how notions of ‘settled science’, in any field is ridiculous

[tpweather]

The CME was indeed a rather big one, but only briefly sparking a G1 geomagnetic storm (far from the G3 that was expected). Overall, the official predictions from NOAA and NASA were way off in magnitude, in regards to effects on earth,, which has actually been the case for the past few solar flares. Which is only an indication of just how far we have to go, of how little we know, and of how notions of ‘settled science’, in any field is ridiculous

I agree 100p/c. I still have problems when we have strong solar activity or weak activity and how that relates to the weather on earth. I have seen where some folks believe more blocking happens with a weak sun but have not seen enough data to make me use that in a forecast. So at the end of the day when I try and make a forecast solar activity is not a part of the equation for me.

[tron777]

I think weak solar in combination with a -QBO is very good to promote blocking due to a warmer stratosphere which promotes a weaker PV. I think everything works together and it's not all just one thing.

[Wxlrnr]

Per Space Weather, we may be looking at another, possibly bigger, CME hit tonight. A combination of three pieces of energy merged and supposedly aimed at the Earth.

[Bgoney]

long-duration M1.7 solar flare erupted from geoeffective Active Region 2981 at 03:01 UTC on November 2, 2021. The event started at 01:20 and ended at 03:50 UTC.

The event was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) peaking at 110 sfu at 02:36 UTC.

A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 626 km/s was registered at 01:29 UTC. These emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event.

In addition, a Type IV emission was registered at 01:30 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong CMEs and solar radiation storm.

The flare produced a halo CME, with an impact to Earth expected late November 3 or early November 4

[tron777]

Fantastic video! Keep the updates coming guys! Very informative.

[Bgoney]

Because of these solar flares , there have been some awesome northern lights well into the plains . Pics are all over the blogosphere

[tron777]

Because of these solar flares , there have been some awesome northern lights well into the plains . Pics are all over the blogosphere

Yeah, been seeing a lot of nice pics and videos as well. Absolutely gorgeous!

[Bgoney]

Thank the lord this was on the backside of the sun a few days ago or we'd probably be in the dark right now.

farsideexplosion_strip_opt.gif

[Bgoney]

Thank the lord this was on the backside of the sun a few days ago or we'd probably be in the dark right now.

farsideexplosion_strip_opt.gif

[tron777]

Wow! That sure is an impressive solar flare!

[tron777]

Just wanted to bump this thread since we are in Solar cycle 25 now and the sun is more active then forecasters have expected it to be. We'll have to see and see if any power, communication disruptions occur. Will also be interesting to see what impacts this may or may not have on our upcoming winter too.

Go to spaceweather.com to monitor the data.

[winterstormjoe]

Just wanted to bump this thread since we are in Solar cycle 25 now and the sun is more active then forecasters have expected it to be. We'll have to see and see if any power, communication disruptions occur. Will also be interesting to see what impacts this may or may not have on our upcoming winter too.

Go to spaceweather.com to monitor the data.

Well, we just came out of a deep solar min and to me it seems like it didn't have much effect on our winter, the deep solar min around 2009 seemed to have an effect on those winters afterwards, but that could have been just a coincidence or what SST's ect we were in at the time. Seems like the solar min's are more associated with La Nina's as the solar Max's are in line with the El Nino's?

[tron777]

Just wanted to bump this thread since we are in Solar cycle 25 now and the sun is more active then forecasters have expected it to be. We'll have to see and see if any power, communication disruptions occur. Will also be interesting to see what impacts this may or may not have on our upcoming winter too.

Go to spaceweather.com to monitor the data.

Well, we just came out of a deep solar min and to me it seems like it didn't have much effect on our winter, the deep solar min around 2009 seemed to have an effect on those winters afterwards, but that could have been just a coincidence or what SST's ect we were in at the time. Seems like the solar min's are more associated with La Nina's as the solar Max's are in line with the El Nino's?

I agree Joe. That is usually how it works in most cases. But this year is different with a La Nina, Westerly or +QBO, possible +PDO if the Gulf of Alaska area keeps warming, which I hope it does. A lot of conflicting signals here that we'll need to digest going forward.

[winterstormjoe]

Just wanted to bump this thread since we are in Solar cycle 25 now and the sun is more active then forecasters have expected it to be. We'll have to see and see if any power, communication disruptions occur. Will also be interesting to see what impacts this may or may not have on our upcoming winter too.

Go to spaceweather.com to monitor the data.

Well, we just came out of a deep solar min and to me it seems like it didn't have much effect on our winter, the deep solar min around 2009 seemed to have an effect on those winters afterwards, but that could have been just a coincidence or what SST's ect we were in at the time. Seems like the solar min's are more associated with La Nina's as the solar Max's are in line with the El Nino's?

I agree Joe. That is usually how it works in most cases. But this year is different with a La Nina, Westerly or +QBO, possible +PDO if the Gulf of Alaska area keeps warming, which I hope it does. A lot of conflicting signals here that we'll need to digest going forward.

Sounds like another headache coming this winter for us. Getting back to solar activity I've been reading up on it a lot since the first deep min in 2009 and they think that in the long run that we're going to be going deeper and deeper on the min's for several decades with some spikes in solar activity from time to time. We'll see what effects this may have on the weather/climate in the long run.

[tron777]

Just wanted to bump this thread since we are in Solar cycle 25 now and the sun is more active then forecasters have expected it to be. We'll have to see and see if any power, communication disruptions occur. Will also be interesting to see what impacts this may or may not have on our upcoming winter too.

Go to spaceweather.com to monitor the data.

Well, we just came out of a deep solar min and to me it seems like it didn't have much effect on our winter, the deep solar min around 2009 seemed to have an effect on those winters afterwards, but that could have been just a coincidence or what SST's ect we were in at the time. Seems like the solar min's are more associated with La Nina's as the solar Max's are in line with the El Nino's?

I agree Joe. That is usually how it works in most cases. But this year is different with a La Nina, Westerly or +QBO, possible +PDO if the Gulf of Alaska area keeps warming, which I hope it does. A lot of conflicting signals here that we'll need to digest going forward.

Sounds like another headache coming this winter for us. Getting back to solar activity I've been reading up on it a lot since the first deep min in 2009 and they think that in the long run that we're going to be going deeper and deeper on the min's for several decades with some spikes in solar activity from time to time. We'll see what effects this may have on the weather/climate in the long run.

Totally agree. This is the first time since 2009 that the activity has been higher then modeled which I found interesting about the current cycle thus far.

[tpweather]

Nice looking solar flare. I still have no ideal how solar activity has an impact either way on our weather. Whether the sun is busy or quiet I have not been able to see any info that tells me what the outcome on earth is in these cycles.

[tron777]

Nice looking solar flare. I still have no ideal how solar activity has an impact either way on our weather. Whether the sun is busy or quiet I have not been able to see any info that tells me what the outcome on earth is in these cycles.

The sun plays a role like everything in weather but exactly what role is still a mystery and much more research is needed. We know the cause of solar flares and CME's here on Earth but much more difficult to figure it out as a climate driver.

[Wxlrnr]

I was looking at spaceweather.com and they were talking about new research findings about the solar cycle. The standing theory was 11 year cycles. The new theory is it actually is two overlapping 17 year cycles that are about 5 years apart. They think the peaks and valleys match up periodically giving us big maximums and big minimums every so often. Link to the article: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 23049/full

[tron777]

I was looking at spaceweather.com and they were talking about new research findings about the solar cycle. The standing theory was 11 year cycles. The new theory is it actually is two overlapping 17 year cycles that are about 5 years apart. They think the peaks and valleys match up periodically giving us big maximums and big minimums every so often. Link to the article: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 23049/full

This is really interesting! Nice find Linn! Thanks for posting this. Just goes to show that we know very little about how complex things really are, but we are learning more and more all the time. We still have a long way to go though. So tough trying to predict Chaos as in the chaos theory.

[Wxlrnr]

I remember how much Rich A was always talking about the solar cycle. There were theories that a strong solar minimum was responsible the cold, snowy times that caused Dickens to make us think of a white Christmas as the way Christmas should be. Also known as the Dalton Minimum, 1790 to 1830.

[tron777]

I remember how much Rich A was always talking about the solar cycle. There were theories that a strong solar minimum was responsible the cold, snowy times that caused Dickens to make us think of a white Christmas as the way Christmas should be. Also known as the Dalton Minimum, 1790 to 1830.

Yep! It really is fascinating! The sun is def the driver of our climate. Like Rich, I have always believed that too. Just wish my knowledge was better on the subject.

[tron777]

I couldn't think of where to put this so I guess I'll throw it in this thread. There was a meteorite that fell last night and someone's camera captured it and BG retweeted it. Pretty cool to watch!

[tpweather]

Solar activity is a great subject but one hard to understand how it affects the weather or climate and probably more important time wise on solar flares and stronger activity. I agree the sun is the driver of the weather but the oceans I call the savings account of climate as it brings in tons of energy and saves it for a so called rainy day. I know Joe B. has been talking a lot about under ocean volcano's and how this could be a big part of why the oceans have been really warm. I can see his point and it seems some of the warmth is where above ground volcano's are more active so maybe yes and maybe no on this ideal and then the Atlantic has been warm for years and what is the reason for this and I don't know the reason.

I am not sure about much on this topic and hopefully this is explored more in the future but when it comes down to this subject my thoughts are not considered a passing grade and more of maybe this maybe that and again this is not a good way on any subject.

[tron777]

Solar activity is a great subject but one hard to understand how it affects the weather or climate and probably more important time wise on solar flares and stronger activity. I agree the sun is the driver of the weather but the oceans I call the savings account of climate as it brings in tons of energy and saves it for a so called rainy day. I know Joe B. has been talking a lot about under ocean volcano's and how this could be a big part of why the oceans have been really warm. I can see his point and it seems some of the warmth is where above ground volcano's are more active so maybe yes and maybe no on this ideal and then the Atlantic has been warm for years and what is the reason for this and I don't know the reason.

I am not sure about much on this topic and hopefully this is explored more in the future but when it comes down to this subject my thoughts are not considered a passing grade and more of maybe this maybe that and again this is not a good way on any subject.

I'm busy working so I don't have a lot of time right now, but there have been a paper or two published on the possible impacts that we may see from the massive undersea volcano Tonga. When it erupted, it put massive amounts of vapor vapor into the stratosphere. Most volcanic eruptions, you think of global cooling, like what we saw with Pinatubo in 1992. In this case, the paper I read suggests that we could see the reserve effects or global warming because of it. I don't know enough on the subject to have an opinion one way or the other.

In terms of our oceans, they are definitely the planets savings account for sure. Energy and heat are stored there as we all know. Look at how warm things are now. Atlantic SST's are at record highs. We have an El Nino ongoing now in the Pacific and the North Pacific is also warming. Our atmosphere is fluid as we all know, so nothing really has a direct 1:1 correlation. There are many factors at play. It's a big reason why seasonal forecasting is so tough.

In terms of solar activity, the sun is pretty active and we've had 0 spotless days in 2023. Only 1 last year in 2022 so the sun has definitely awakened from it slumber that we were watching back in the early 2000s. I think we are in Solar Cycle 25 now, if my memory is working? (It may not be LOL) ;lol: Anyway... it'll be interesting to see how our weather is impacted down the road by all of these different things.