August 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Sorry guys for not getting the Aug thread up sooner. Anyway... a slight risk for severe wx this evening to start the last month of Met. Summer. I've had one downpour already very early this morning. I think chances remain scattered. We'll see a line around mid day try and come in here, but it'll fizzle due to our more stable atmosphere. We need some CAPE for that slight risk to pan out tonight. If it does, look for strong to severe storms being possible in that 8-11pm range. The question is... will it? Visible looking awful cloudy attm.

[tron777]

Update from the boys as of an hour ago:


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...
Based on current radar trends, updated PoPs across eastern
Indiana and western Ohio as ongoing QLCS continues southeastward
into the forecast by mid-morning. In the wake of QLCS, the
worked-over air mass will take time to recover. Robust westerly
flow will help advect steeper mid-level lapse rates back into
the region by late this afternoon and evening. Southwest surface
flow ahead of the front also support low-level moisture
advection, leading to renewed instability. Confidence is high
that convection will redevelop, however, location forecasts are
much lower confidence.

[cloudy72]

"Confidence is high that convection will redevelop, however, location forecasts are much lower confidence"

Yeah - I really hope I can squeeze out some rain from this first line coming across Indiana because I feel like I am in "no man's land" for the afternoon action. I could see the boundary shift just to my south, then blow up storms and push further away towards you folks in CVG land. If the afternoon storms pop a couple hours early then I am in the game. Too close to call for my hood.

[tron777]

Too bad that convection trying to push in from the NW is going to keep the clouds around thru the first half of the day. We would have a nice outbreak this afternoon and evening too as a result. But since we're fighting clouds and possible showers for some of you (prior to the collapse of that incoming line), my confidence is not as high of a tone as ILN's. I'm kind of in that watch and wait camp personally to see if we can get CAPE this afternoon once the line fizzles out. How long does it take to break up the clouds? We'll have some decent shear, I think we're good there. CAPE is around 1000-1500 J/KG over SE IN, extreme SW OH and NKY. The rest of Ohio has little to no CAPE at this time and thus, why that line will fizzle as it comes in later this morning. A complex set up today without a doubt. I don't think this is a slam dunk at all.

[tron777]

A little long range talk now and I think the first 10 days of the month look fairly typical. Storms from time to time. A little heat thrown in from time to time. Nothing too major or extreme in my opinion. Pretty typical August weather for us. But... as I eluded to back in the July thread last week, guidance is still trying to show the heat ridge retrograding back to the SW US and we perhaps, get a trough going in the East. If correct, a period of below normal temps would be possible along with a refreshing airmass! I will continue to keep an eye on this, but my estimation right now is sometime after 8/10 for this pattern change to occur. Ensemble guidance has been showing this signal for a while. Right now, EPS has a stronger signal then the GEFS but it's there on both if you look.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and agree 100p/c with the posts this morning. Timing once again will play a big part in the afternoon and evening forecast. The biggest item will no doubt be heavy rain as the atmosphere is loaded but who will be lucky enough to get a couple of hours of rainfall. One of those situations where the moisture will try and head towards the heat to the southwest and though at first you may see a line northwest to southeast that line later this evening may ended up dropping south and even back to the southwest towards the heat. Guessing which model is correct is like throwing a dart so not much help at the moment but may be better by this afternoon. Love to see an inch of rain as I got only .27 Sunday morning though most of it soaked into the ground.Tuesday and Wednesday look dry though very humid and then another front will try to get in here Thursday and Friday but will sort of wash out nearby but will have enough influence to have rain chances increase some plus with the added cloud cover it will lower temps though the humidity will still be felt.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! Also a fantastic post from you. We are going to be busier then I originally expected this week due to today's system, then with the next front coming in for Thurs and Fri as you mentioned. The front gets stuck over the OV so 30% POPS right now, are even going to be on the board for the weekend. A very humid week as you mentioned with Wed being the hottest day of the week. The best shot at our 90 degree day contest is also Wed. Could get 89'ed Tues / Thurs depending on how things work out. But really, fairly typical Aug temps, Mid 80s to the low 90s depending on clouds and storm coverage is a good call for the first 10 days of the month. Lows generally in the U60s to the L70s give or take.

[Bgoney]

Seeing some brief peaks of sun and patchy blue skies on the east side

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and very typical for early August as you mentioned. My guess is the tropics will wake up in mid-August like usual but to what extent and what outcomes we may see in the second half of the month. The models have been showing the weakness in our area for mid August and that is possible with the ridge heading towards the west again and the Bermuda high just to our east. If that would happen that is really a wonderful mid-August pattern for us especially if you hate the heat. Speaking of blue sky Bgoney and I am seeing a mostly cloudy sky but a few peaks of blue. I expect to see your normal hazy look to the sky this afternoon but that will include some sun.

[tron777]

Seeing some brief peaks of sun and patchy blue skies on the east side

I saw a peak too for about 5 mins. Now back to overcast lol

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and very typical for early August as you mentioned. My guess is the tropics will wake up in mid-August like usual but to what extent and what outcomes we may see in the second half of the month. The models have been showing the weakness in our area for mid August and that is possible with the ridge heading towards the west again and the Bermuda high just to our east. If that would happen that is really a wonderful mid-August pattern for us especially if you hate the heat. Speaking of blue sky Bgoney and I am seeing a mostly cloudy sky but a few peaks of blue. I expect to see your normal hazy look to the sky this afternoon but that will include some sun.

I expect the tropics to wake up about that time also Tim and maybe we'll have some action to track until Mid October then it's over. What I think is going to be bust worthy are the hyperactive forecasts we saw back in the Spring. There is certainly still enough time for above normal ACE. That is still very much in play. If we don't see things getting going by Sept then the above avg ACE calls will also be a bust. That possibility is also on the table right now too. I read a blurb online where third year Nina's typically do offer up much lower Atlantic Basin tropical activity, however, the sample size we have of third year Nina's since 1950 is only like 3. So we don't have a lot to go on for long term forecasting at this time.

[tron777]

Line of storms now approaching IND. We shall see how far SE it will come before running out of gas.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and very typical for early August as you mentioned. My guess is the tropics will wake up in mid-August like usual but to what extent and what outcomes we may see in the second half of the month. The models have been showing the weakness in our area for mid August and that is possible with the ridge heading towards the west again and the Bermuda high just to our east. If that would happen that is really a wonderful mid-August pattern for us especially if you hate the heat. Speaking of blue sky Bgoney and I am seeing a mostly cloudy sky but a few peaks of blue. I expect to see your normal hazy look to the sky this afternoon but that will include some sun.

I expect the tropics to wake up about that time also Tim and maybe we'll have some action to track until Mid October then it's over. What I think is going to be bust worthy are the hyperactive forecasts we saw back in the Spring. There is certainly still enough time for above normal ACE. That is still very much in play. If we don't see things getting going by Sept then the above avg ACE calls will also be a bust. That possibility is also on the table right now too. I read a blurb online where third year Nina's typically do offer up much lower Atlantic Basin tropical activity, however, the sample size we have of this year Nina's since 1950 is only like 3. So we don't have a lot to go on for long term forecasting at this time.

Great Post Les and the pacific is really below average when it comes to activity. The monsoon season over there was very nice for India this year but it really had a hard time expanding into the middle east so they have just fried this summer more than normal.

[tpweather]

Line of storms now approaching IND. We shall see how far SE it will come before running out of gas.

Will need to see the outflows from these storms as well and many times later in the afternoon you can see these outflows on the satellite images.

[tron777]

Line of storms now approaching IND. We shall see how far SE it will come before running out of gas.

Will need to see the outflows from these storms as well and many times later in the afternoon you can see these outflows on the satellite images.

Absolutely as new storms could fire along it, esp if we get lucky and can see some sun this afternoon after this first line is done doing its "dirty work." Some guidance is holding the line intact and allows even CVG to get some rain before it weakens completely. Other models have it weakening before it even gets to CVG. A 50 / 50 chance to be honest. Models always struggle with these kinds of set up's. Because what happens this morning is going to dictate how the afternoon and evening will go.

[tron777]

MD issued for us: Watch unlikely to be issued for that incoming line. SPC agrees with our line of thinking here.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1624.html

[tpweather]

Love to see some rain as I put down some fertilizer down Sunday morning when the ground was wet and if I can get a nice .5-1.0 inches that would be perfect and I would not need to water the lawn. Always tough to time the fertilizer in the summer as you don't want to bake the lawn but hopefully this works out perfect this time lol.

[tron777]

Love to see some rain as I put down some fertilizer down Sunday morning when the ground was wet and if I can get a nice .5-1.0 inches that would be perfect and I would not need to water the lawn. Always tough to time the fertilizer in the summer as you don't want to bake the lawn but hopefully this works out perfect this time lol.

So far, that line is holding together rather well, but we've got another hour or so to go before it gets here. Not expecting anything severe of course this morning, it's just a question of rain or no rain depending on how quickly this line weakens.

[cloudy72]

It still has to cross the line of death (i.e. IN/OH border). We all know the history - also see I-70 for winter storms.

[tpweather]

Love to see some rain as I put down some fertilizer down Sunday morning when the ground was wet and if I can get a nice .5-1.0 inches that would be perfect and I would not need to water the lawn. Always tough to time the fertilizer in the summer as you don't want to bake the lawn but hopefully this works out perfect this time lol.

So far, that line is holding together rather well, but we've got another hour or so to go before it gets here. Not expecting anything severe of course this morning, it's just a question of rain or no rain depending on how quickly this line weakens.

I agree Les and you can sort of see the leading edge has some nice winds and heavy rain. Love to see that get through here in the next couple of hours and would be a nice bonus imo.

[tpweather]

Just noticed Indy had a gust to 39mph with a thundershower

[tron777]

12Z ILN morning sounding info just came in and it's showing a convective temp at KILN of 77 degrees for today. DCAPE values aren't too shabby, over 900. We'd like to see it at 1000 or more for damaging wind potential so we're close. CAPE at ILN is terrible though and thus, the reason everything is weakening. Only like 100 maybe 150 J/KG. 0-6KM Bulk shear is around 27 knots. Would like to see that around 40 but we'll take what we can get.

[Bgoney]

That line looks healthy but they'll be losing the extra.boost from the LLJ very soon if not already

[tpweather]

That line looks healthy but they'll be losing the extra.boost from the LLJ very soon if not already

Exactly and this usually happens in the 9a-11am time period

[tron777]

It still has to cross the line of death (i.e. IN/OH border). We all know the history - also see I-70 for winter storms.

Our Domes will have a say most likely with this first incoming line. Good luck man!!!