June 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Another shower try to pop NE of Connersville, IN.

EDIT: Another between Mike's Hood and DAY as well. So we've got 3 to monitor. Hope to see more to give more folks a chance.

[tron777]

CVG is at 94 which ties for the hottest day of 2022. If we can get to 95, then today will be the hottest officially.

[tron777]

LOU and LEX are both at 97. Bowling Green KY is at 99!

[Bgoney]

Seeing first shower pop in past 10 mins east of Bloomington. Building east but not moving yet. Do we still expect south-southeast movement today?

Screenshot_20220622-142532_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

Wow... 12Z Euro suddenly wants to give CVG an inch of rain on Sunday. I won't buy that but it's at least cool to see being modeled.

[tpweather]

The dew point has skyrocketed today. The heat index higher than I expected as the recent dew point is 76. A nice pooling of moisture south of the front plus this tells me we have plenty of nice vegetation still hanging around. Bgoney made a great point earlier about how we have some great met's around here and I agree plus he talked about how the higher ups always love the headlines. I understand shock value and that is fine but when you miss a temperature by 6-8 degrees you need to come out and say we blew the forecast big time and will try harder the next time. When they are correct they always mention that but seldom the other way and that is not a good look for your weather team. Temps are also doing well today and I thought 93 or 94 would be the high with an outside shot of 95 and that is because we are just south of the front and that is when we usually get the hottest temps in these periods of warmer weather.

[Bgoney]

When its this warm you can raise the temp on the AC during the afternoons, 76-77 feels downright nippy

[tron777]

94 for my hood so far today. It's the hottest day for me personally. I have since dropped to 92. As stated earlier, CVG did hit 94 as well but has since dropped to 93. Due to CU development, we may have reached our max temps for the day. Scattered storms continue to develop to our North and West ahead of the front. The action has developed a little more NW then I expected which is good news for us in terms of having a 40-50% chance to get a storm so I think the forecast is in wonderful shape for today... just need the ole luck factor basically since the storm cells themselves are small in size.

[tron777]

The dew point has skyrocketed today. The heat index higher than I expected as the recent dew point is 76. A nice pooling of moisture south of the front plus this tells me we have plenty of nice vegetation still hanging around. Bgoney made a great point earlier about how we have some great met's around here and I agree plus he talked about how the higher ups always love the headlines. I understand shock value and that is fine but when you miss a temperature by 6-8 degrees you need to come out and say we blew the forecast big time and will try harder the next time. When they are correct they always mention that but seldom the other way and that is not a good look for your weather team. Temps are also doing well today and I thought 93 or 94 would be the high with an outside shot of 95 and that is because we are just south of the front and that is when we usually get the hottest temps in these periods of warmer weather.

I am so thankful that we don't have any issues admitting when we are wrong on here. One of the many things that I love about our forum, Tim!

[Bgoney]

Screenshot_20220622-145428_Chrome.jpg

[Bgoney]

Made it to 97 here on the B'goney official thermometer. Now down to 93 with sporadic clouds

[tron777]

CAPE Values are explosive... 5000-5500 J/KG now. LI's are at -6. Low level lapse rates are outstanding... 8.0 to 8.5 range. If it wasn't so warm aloft, I'd be concerned about large hail but a lot of it will melt so only small hail is expected. Damaging winds with collapsing t-storms, like a wet microburst, is going to be the primary concern along with CG Lightning and of course, localized heavy rainfall. Too bad no shear or this could have been a major outbreak.

[tron777]

Microburst comp index to illustrate my point:

mbcp.gif

[tron777]

Made it to 97 here on the B'goney official thermometer. Now down to 93 with sporadic clouds

Wow! One of the hotter temps in our local area I've seen today. HAO is at 95 and LUK 96 so they're trying to beat you.

EDIT: LUK now at 97. CMH also at 97

[tron777]

DCAPE values for strong winds... also impressive!

dcape.gif

[cloudy72]

94 here for my high and down to 90. Had a few drops while the main cell passed 3 blocks to my south as usual! LOL

[tron777]

Coverage for us down here actually looks better then I originally had thought. Maybe 60% coverage now???

[tron777]

T-storm watch just issued: SE IN, SW OH and NKY until 8pm:


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0403.html

[wxnut]

Watch is official now: https://www.weatherusa.net/wxwarnings?id=120052984. Getting a good downpour in Fairfield at the moment but don't like the break in the line that appears to be headed towards us. Posted the link above as I've been using it for years to get email alerts for watches and warnings. I know there are many other options.

[Angelika]

We are getting heavy rain and some pretty impressive winds here in Fairfield. Also some CG lightning.

[tron777]

Warnings out now for many... I have busted with my coverage call but I don't care,. My Dome is going to break!

[tron777]

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Ohio County in southeastern Indiana...
Southeastern Dearborn County in southeastern Indiana...
Northeastern Switzerland County in southeastern Indiana...
Kenton County in northern Kentucky...
Southern Campbell County in northern Kentucky...
Boone County in northern Kentucky...
Northwestern Grant County in northern Kentucky...
Eastern Gallatin County in northern Kentucky...
Southwestern Hamilton County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 515 PM EDT.

* At 427 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located from near Delhi
Township to near Rising Sun, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

[tron777]

Reporting now from the garage. Wind picking up now. Gusting to 40.

[tron777]

60 mph winds now... Trees limbs and branches snapping off. Light rain now too.

[tron777]

Moderate rain now. Temp went from 92 to 81

Edit:. Make that hvy rain with thunder and lightning.