June 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Only 72 for me right now... CVG checking in with 70-71 degrees respectively. Reading has bounced around the last few mins.

EDIT: CVG also at 72 as of 3pm.

[tron777]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/nationa ... DB662FMTE/

Confirmed EF2 in Miami Co and an EF1 in Clark Co.

Tornado #3 also confirmed - An EF0 near Sardinia in Brown Co, Ohio. Storm damage survey is also scheduled for Champaign co. which we hope reveals that information later today. Total tornadoes right now stands at 3 in our forecast area from yesterday's event.

[MVWxObserver]

Here we go... some updates from ILN and I think they have confirmed the Tipp City one and another out near Sardinia in Brown Co. The Springfield one I don't believe has been confirmed as of yet.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20220608

I believe Sardinia is where firefighter/ EMT Todd's dept is located. Wonder if he witnessed any of that action?

I have not seen Todd post on Facebook in several months. I'm not sure what he has been up to.

A few minutes ago I sent Todd a PM at FB. Prayerfully he and his wife don't have any damage and / or haven't lost any power.

**************************************

2308 1 SE SARDINIA BROWN OH 3900 8380 LARGE TREES DOWN. MEDIUM SIZED LIMB DOWN ON A CAMPER. LOCATED NEAR GRAHAM ST AND YANKEE RD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

2308 SARDINIA BROWN OH 3901 8381 STRUCTURES DAMAGED AROUND SARDINIA. DAMAGE BELIEVED TO BE CAUSED BY A TORNADO BASED ON RADAR DEPICTION. OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION TO COME AFTER SURVEY. (ILN)

^^ Has since been rated an EF0.

1108 1 SE SARDINIA BROWN OH 3900 8380 LARGE 6 TO 8 INCH BRANCHES REPORTED DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/nationa ... DB662FMTE/

Confirmed EF2 in Miami Co and an EF1 in Clark Co.

Tornado #3 also confirmed - An EF0 near Sardinia in Brown Co, Ohio. Storm damage survey is also scheduled for Champaign co. which we hope reveals that information later today. Total tornadoes right now stands at 3 in our forecast area from yesterday's event.

Darke Co EF1

[Bgoney]

What a beauty of a day.

ENSO update from the experts to follow. Looks like a slight relaxation of LaNina during the heart of summer, to be followed by another subdued strengthening as we head into fall and winter, with the LaNina base state staying intact throughput.



ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance).

During May, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. However, negative SST anomalies weakened during the past month, as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.6°C to -0.9°C during the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) also weakened with values returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to at least ~75m depth from the central to the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures continuing at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the east-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific and was weakly enhanced over parts of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continues to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. This is now in greater agreement with the forecast consensus this month, which also predicts La Niña to continue into the winter. However, it is clear that recent observed oceanic and atmospheric anomalies have weakened and this is anticipated to continue through the summer. Uncertainty remains over whether La Niña may transition to ENSO-neutral during the summer, with forecasters predicting a 52% chance of La Niña and a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. After this season, the forecast is for renewed cooling, with La Niña favored during the fall and early winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

[MVWxObserver]

Redlegs sure know how to grab defeat from the jaws of victory, often.

Currently 72 here in G'ville.

[tpweather]

Good Evening. I see the NWS for next Tuesday and Wednesday have CVG at 95 both days,Louisville at 97 and Indy at 98. Okay I understand the higher temps next week but to get that high with the lush vegetation and yes a chance a mcs could be nearby blows me away. If everything went perfect I thought maybe 91 or 92 at best for CVG. I want to watch over the next few days to see if the models come down in temp or I need to go up. I still believe upper 80's with a 90 or two Tuesday through Thursday. This should be a good test for the models on how much info regarding a lush vegetation is thrown into the model if any is thrown in at all.

[tron777]

I have two things to say this evening. One - Agree with the LA Nina update that Bgoney posted. I see nothing stopping the Nina from continuing. You get little waxes and wanes every now and again (same with El Nino) but overall, it's a Nina thru and thru. Supposedly, models are calling for an extremely active hurricane season in the tropical ATL as a result. Winter time prospects... I have nothing to say there at this point. Only 2 analogs to go by for a Triple Dip tells us nothing. Winter this year once we start looking at it more in a few months, is gonna be a toughie. It usually is!

Second thing is are the temps for next week. 12Z Euro (and GFS too) taken literally has 500 DM heights high enough to achieve 90+ degrees Mon - Thurs. 590-595 DM heights under the typical conditions would result in highs 90 to 95. However, as Tim mentioned and me also previously... lush, green vegetation and a wet ground going into this. I'd shave a couple degrees off of the highs personally. So like 88-92 makes more sense to me versus 90 to 95 range. We shall see as usual.

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/nationa ... DB662FMTE/

Champaign Co has been rated an EF0.

[tron777]

Good Friday morning all! A nice morning but it will turn into a wet afternoon and evening with the next rain maker moving in. A few storms possible, but nothing in the severe dept is expected. Sat morning, the rain should end. Cannot rule out a storm on Sunday as the heat begins to try and build in. We will have to see on temps next week as well as POPS. Is the ridge far enough away for sneaky MCS complexes to come in or do we remain hot and dry for 3 days?

[tron777]

56 here this morning! Man, I am sure going to miss these nice mornings we've been having. Too bad it can't last all summer.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and I decided to turn off the A/C for a day but that will end. You have the forecast in great shape. Just looked at the NWS forecast for CVG,LOU and INDY to see the forecast high temps for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Lou went down one degree one day,CVG went down one degree both days and Indy already down 2 degrees. Still believe they will continue to come down a few more degrees. Hopefully the nice little heat spell only last 3 days or so . I will not call this a heat wave but sure some media folks will.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and I decided to turn off the A/C for a day but that will end. You have the forecast in great shape. Just looked at the NWS forecast for CVG,LOU and INDY to see the forecast high temps for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Lou went down one degree one day,CVG went down one degree both days and Indy already down 2 degrees. Still believe they will continue to come down a few more degrees. Hopefully the nice little heat spell only last 3 days or so . I will not call this a heat wave but sure some media folks will.

Good morning Tim! I laugh at the term heat wave and the way it is used. The official NWS definition nowadays are 3 days in a row at or above 90. I mean seriously? that is like normal summer time weather for a lot of the country. I think a week of it then yeah it is a heat wave, but only 3 days? Sigh... anyway enough that BS. Anyway Tim, we're on the same page again. Like the numbers we've got going and I am still watching the potential for storms as the heat tries to build in Sunday / Monday time period. Models aren't showing a lot here but I am thinking outside the box so we'll see if I need to adjust or if the models adjust (as they should, if our ideas are right).

[tpweather]

Looking at next week and we know about the possible 90 degree days but the dew points will be a bigger story imo. With all the lush vegetation dew points can rise quite high. So even a temp at 90 the heat index which is a much better way of how it feels should get into the upper 90's. Can we get any shower or thundershower development under this high and yes but more isolated but the most likely area is where the heaviest rainfall has fallen over the past few weeks. So I expect each day Monday-Wednesday where you will see a normal build up of clouds in the 12-2pm range and then some isolated places will get that nice cooling shower while others will stay dry.

[tron777]

The Euro not so much, but the GFS continues to try and show a couple of MCS's. Sun night or so passing by to our SW (heaviest core) then Tues or so of next week, another for the North of the river crowd. Timing, tracks TBD but this does not look like a bone dry pattern to me at all. I like to call it a "dirty high" because scattered storms as you said Tim are going to be possible.

[tron777]

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/06/10/stormt ... pdate-610/

[tron777]

Per ILN's Facebook page.... we now have a 6th confirmed tornado from Wed's storms. This one occurred in Hocking co Ohio. EF rating will be announced later today.

[tron777]

Clouds have been steadily increasing here in the last hour. Per radar... doubtful I'll be able to mow after work today.

[tpweather]

Clouds have been steadily increasing here in the last hour. Per radar... doubtful I'll be able to mow after work today.

Les got my mowing in this morning. The rainfall will be spotty in nature and these are some of the hardest forecasts because some folks will get a nice few hours of light rain and other may just get enough to get the ground wet. If you get .25 then you are doing well in this situation. Then will a very strong mcs form later Saturday or Sunday and models do have problems in getting the exact location but if one forms it could be very intense because of the heat trying to build in. Then we start a lovely week of heat and humidity. I am worried more about the heat index because no doubt its going to be muggy with all the rain we have had recently. I still believe Les your 88-92 call is on target locally. May be higher towards Indy and Louisville but they have been a little drier than us over the past couple of weeks. Hopefully by the end of week we get relief with some decent showers and thundershowers. I mowed today so if we miss the mcs this weekend the grass will have grown some so it should do well with the higher temps.

[tron777]

Tim... (and everyone lol) the 12Z GFS is further north nailing us with the MCS Sun night into early Mon morning as the heat tries to build in. We need to watch this period as we keep mentioning on here. We may or may not see a couple more after that depending on where the boundary is and where it stalls. I am favoring folks North of Cincy like our I-70 Crew for this (Tues and Wed time periods) but it's far out in time. I have a sneaky feeling that the heat is not the only headlines for next week. I'm more concerned with MCS's to be quite honest.

[tpweather]

I agree Les and when you get that heat on the move those mcs's can become quite strong with heavy rain and very strong winds.

[tron777]

I agree Les and when you get that heat on the move those mcs's can become quite strong with heavy rain and very strong winds.

GFS long term for several runs continues the NW Flow pattern. If correct, we will continue to remain busy on here tracking severe wx.

[tron777]

After Day 10, now this is absolutely Fantasy Range, but the 12Z GFS has the return of cool air again with another trough. Recognize the repeating theme for 2022 folks? 70s for highs, 50s for lows again if correct. We know this is way way out there but why not? With the trends that we cannot seem to break out of, it wouldn't surprise me at all. I won't forecast it this far away but the solution being shown on the model at least does make sense from a meteorology and pattern perspective. The core of the heat remains over the SW US, S Plains and especially Texas. It's going to be a bad summer for those folks heat and drought wise.

[tpweather]

After Day 10, now this is absolutely Fantasy Range, but the 12Z GFS has the return of cool air again with another trough. Recognize the repeating theme for 2022 folks? 70s for highs, 50s for lows again if correct. We know this is way way out there but why not? With the trends that we cannot seem to break out of, it wouldn't surprise me at all. I won't forecast it this far away but the solution being shown on the model at least does make sense from a meteorology and pattern perspective. The core of the heat remains over the SW US, S Plains and especially Texas. It's going to be a bad summer for those folks heat and drought wise.

Les as we always talk about the trend is your friend. I agree and with the dryness in the southwest the heat will tend to move that way. Sure we will have episodes of heat and humidity but we have that every summer. If we can continue to get some decent rains every week and I am only talking about one inch a week the heat will have a hard time of taking up home in our area.

[tron777]

After Day 10, now this is absolutely Fantasy Range, but the 12Z GFS has the return of cool air again with another trough. Recognize the repeating theme for 2022 folks? 70s for highs, 50s for lows again if correct. We know this is way way out there but why not? With the trends that we cannot seem to break out of, it wouldn't surprise me at all. I won't forecast it this far away but the solution being shown on the model at least does make sense from a meteorology and pattern perspective. The core of the heat remains over the SW US, S Plains and especially Texas. It's going to be a bad summer for those folks heat and drought wise.

Les as we always talk about the trend is your friend. I agree and with the dryness in the southwest the heat will tend to move that way. Sure we will have episodes of heat and humidity but we have that every summer. If we can continue to get some decent rains every week and I am only talking about one inch a week the heat will have a hard time of taking up home in our area.

A perfect statement right there. I couldn't agree more. Speaking of more rain... it is knocking on our door step now from the Tri-state area on south. It'll be light but enough to mess up my mowing plans as I said earlier.