Re: April 2022 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/trending/texa ... 5DFCJAM54/

Prayers and thoughts with the community of Uvalde, TX as a gunman massacred 19 students and 3 adults at an elementary school after having also shot his grandmother.

Currently 72 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

75 today! What a beauty! :D Hope all enjoyed it and got their lawns mowed.

Radar is starting to get busy down to the south. Showers / t-storms are even as far north as Western KY at this time. Look for increasing rain and storms later on tonight into tomorrow morning. Then a break so we can heat up for the afternoon and evening round. Very active thru Friday folks as far as rain is concerned. Another 1-2" is possible. If CVG can pick up an inch and half, we will have the wettest May on record. This is absolutely possible to break this record!

[tron777]

Good Wed morning all! No changes to the forecast. Light rain is possible this morning, nothing major with strong to iso severe storms possible later this afternoon and evening. We will continue to see rounds of rain and storms thru Thurs as well with the marg risk continuing. Friday no severe wx expected, just showers with the upper low. 1-3" of rain can be expected thru the period. Heaviest where training t-storms occur. Flooding will be an issue for some folks without a doubt.

Then a nice Sat followed by the heat! Upper 80s likely on Memorial Day and Tues of next week. Could see 4 dry days in a row here.

[tron777]

We may see a pretty warm Wed of next week too but storm chances will probably return in isolated fashion. Likely chances for Thurs of next week and beyond with another front which puts the brakes on the heat yet again. See a theme yet? Get those 90 degree day guesses in!

[tron777]

BG Blog Update: https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/25/stormt ... pdate-524/

[tron777]

A few sprinkles this morning but that's been it. Per radar, it looks like not much is going on for a while. Visible also shows a little sun peaking through the clouds as well. I see some patches of blue right now. Let's see how long this lasts for CAPE purposes for this afternoon's activity.

[cloudy72]

Mowed the yard yesterday so let's bring the rain on! Low here was 63 and feeling a bit humid out there this AM.

[tron777]

Mowed the yard yesterday so let's bring the rain on! Low here was 63 and feeling a bit humid out there this AM.

I mowed also. I think the majority of folks did, at least around here. MBY where it's shaded was still soaking wet even yesterday.

[tron777]

Mostly sunny here... looks like CAPE is building now across the SW CWA. Dews are in the middle to upper 60s with temps rising up into the mid 70s at this point. Convective temp is 82 for today and I don't think that's going to be a problem per the visible satellite.

[tron777]

As of 10:30am from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar imagery at 1030 AM shows scattered sprinkles/rain showers
spread throughout the fa, generally light in nature. A warm
front continues to lift northward this morning which has helped
with initiating these showers. Still lacking enough instability
to provide thunder in our CWA, with NLDN and GLD imagery not
showing any lightning activity nearby just yet.

The upper flow pattern places the ILN fa just upstream of an H5
trough. With the meridional flow pattern between the
trough/ridge becoming more amplified, deep layer southerly flow
will persist across our CWA. However, wind speeds aloft are
pretty marginal today, with 35 kts of flow expected at about
500mb. While the speed shear isn`t all that impressive today,
the directional shear will still be something to monitor as
backed surface winds out of the southeast provide a bit
curvature (veering) profile to the hodographs.

Hi-res models the past day or two trended higher on the amount
of instability for today, but it appears that latest CAMs
overnight and some of the initial 12z runs this morning are
starting to back off on the levels of CAPE this afternoon. While
several locations throughout our CWA are still approaching
800-1200 J/kg of SBCAPE by mid afternoon, this is quite the
dropoff from the 1500-2000 J/kg range that was previously
forecast. However, there does appear to be a better signal for
SBCAPE values to still climb above 1000 J/kg in our far western
counties near the Tristate and SE IN. The best chance for
convective activity still appears to start generally near the
Tristate and move northward through west-central OH given the
mean flow. The NAM3K maintains higher SBCAPE values and
therefore better shower/storm coverage across our western
counties from the late afternoon through evening. The HRRR on
the other hand is more isolated to scattered with storm
potential. Differences in CAMs mainly driven by the weak forcing
present, so any severe threat will be conditional.

SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk in the Day 1 Outlook for
majority of our counties, with lower chances towards central
OH. Time frame to monitor will generally be from about 4 PM
through 10 PM in our CWA where a few strong to severe storms are
possible. Main threats will be from straight-line winds and
even hail given steep low level lapse rates. However, we
continue to mention that an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
given the favorable directional shear profiles.

[Bgoney]

Mostly sunny here... looks like CAPE is building now across the SW CWA. Dews are in the middle to upper 60s with temps rising up into the mid 70s at this point. Convective temp is 82 for today and I don't think that's going to be a problem per the visible satellite.

Yea , I don't know why we wouldn't reach at least 1500 cape that ILN speaks of

[tron777]

Mostly sunny here... looks like CAPE is building now across the SW CWA. Dews are in the middle to upper 60s with temps rising up into the mid 70s at this point. Convective temp is 82 for today and I don't think that's going to be a problem per the visible satellite.

Yea , I don't know why we wouldn't reach at least 1500 cape that ILN speaks of

The forcing is weak today since the LP and cold front are so far away but the warm front in the region should help somewhat. I checked CAPE and it's already at 1000 for most of the area and 1500 down here by me in our SW counties. SPC has added a slight risk area now for the warm front over Eastern ILL, Northern half of IN and West Central OH. 5% TOR risk thanks to the warm front so that is going to be your best tornado potential. Lower risk there for us. Hail, wind, and of course heavy rain are the main issues for us. Still think due to the lack of forcing that the action will be scattered but where it occurs, it should be halfway decent! Should have way better coverage tomorrow / tomorrow night.

[tron777]

I am up to 80 now...

[tron777]

12Z Euro coming in with scattered action later this afternoon and evening... also overnight. The better action is tomorrow. Could be a wet day with several rounds of rain and storms moving thru. Some could be strong to severe like today. Then we get more showers (nothing severe) on Friday with the upper low. A cool showery day in the 60s is expected.

[cloudy72]

Dewpoint at CVG up to 71 - Tropical baby!

[tron777]

PWATS are in the 1.6 to 1.7" range so any slow moving S to N storms we get that can train... heavy rain and flash flooding is going to be more of a problem then even the isolated severe wx prospects.

[tron777]

Action is beginning to fire in the W and SW areas of AV Country. SE IN and NKY will be favored first followed by SW and Western Ohio counties.

[tron777]

2000-2500 for CAPE so we look great there! Models were totally wrong on the fuel aspect for today. We knew that early on by looking at the visible this morning. 80+ out there so convective temps have finally been met. Shear is weak only 25 knots, thus the scattered action versus a line or an MCS. Lapse rates are nice and steep... 7.5 to 8.0 so def watch for some hail and strong winds should we get any stronger cell to develop. Li's are at -5 so thunder and lightning are a good bet.

[cloudy72]

SPC has us in SLGT risk for tomorrow now.

OH_swody2.png

[Bgoney]

Action is beginning to fire in the W and SW areas of AV Country. SE IN and NKY will be favored first followed by SW and Western Ohio counties.

Kind of a rare due north movement of cells for our area

[tron777]

SPC has us in SLGT risk for tomorrow now.


OH_swody2.png

System is a slow mover so not too surprised. Just hope we can see some dry time for heating. Shear will be much better tomorrow but I don't think the CAPE will be as good as it is today. We'll see... you never know.

[tron777]

Action is beginning to fire in the W and SW areas of AV Country. SE IN and NKY will be favored first followed by SW and Western Ohio counties.

Kind of a rare due north movement of cells for our area

Yeah... I'd say a storm coming in from the east is probably some of the most rare tracks, followed by the due north trackers that we are seeing today.

[tron777]

A am watching a cell to my SW. Going to be close... might miss me to the West. I can hear the thunder from it attm.

[cloudy72]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
415 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Ohio County in southeastern Indiana...
Northeastern Dearborn County in southeastern Indiana...
Boone County in northern Kentucky...
Western Hamilton County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 445 PM EDT.

* At 415 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rising Sun,
moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

[tron777]

Rain is starting now... Thunder and lightning too.