Re: April 2022 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

Hey Les, when you create the May thread you can shift this over there. CIPS throwing us a bone for possible severe threat on Tuesday 5/3.

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[tron777]

Continue May wx talk here!

[tron777]

We should begin May on an active note and as Mike has alluded too, maybe something cooking severe wise for next week? 12Z GFS has good timing of the cold front Tues evening next week.

[Trevor]

I work until 6 on Tuesday so hopefully the action holds off long enough for me to not miss it

[cloudy72]

We should begin May on an active note and as Mike has alluded too, maybe something cooking severe wise for next week? 12Z GFS has good timing of the cold front Tues evening next week.

Tuesday def has the best potential so far this season for a regional severe weather outbreak.....of course that is not saying much seeing we have had little to no potential thus far!

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[MVWxObserver]

Hopefully Tues's forecast won't have much of an impact on Ohio's Primary.

Glad my folks and I voted early.

[tron777]

We should begin May on an active note and as Mike has alluded too, maybe something cooking severe wise for next week? 12Z GFS has good timing of the cold front Tues evening next week.

Tuesday def has the best potential so far this season for a regional severe weather outbreak.....of course that is not saying much seeing we have had little to no potential thus far!


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Looking interesting for sure Mike! We're all itching! I could use some rain anyways lol

[tron777]

I work until 6 on Tuesday so hopefully the action holds off long enough for me to not miss it

No OT for you Sir!

[tron777]

12Z Euro showing 1000+J/KG for CAPE from about Cincy or so on south for Tuesday's system. We'll see if that one can become our first new thread starter for the month of May. So far, it does hold promise.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and nice to see some milder air . So the possible two chances for severe weather will be later Saturday and again Tuesday. Saturday timing does not look great as the complex will be falling apart once it gets in here. Still could see a nice batch of rainfall and some thunder but that may be the extent locally. Saying that folks heading west of Indy could be okay time wise and get some of the severe weather. Next Tuesday and again it seems once we get closer to an event the models readjust and move everything further north and west so at this point I am not excited about severe weather and that is just going by the trends this spring. I could use the rainfall and hopefully over the next 9 days we can get a good dose but still sticking with the 1-2 inches locally until i see signs of better timing for us locally. Again folks further to the west will no doubt see heavier rains and places like Indy and maybe Louisville can get in on the 2-4 inches in that period and of course some locally heavier rains can fall if you get several hours of training during one of the storms.

[MVWxObserver]

MV and Tri-state right on the edge of the Marginal.

Like Tim alluded to, timing not great, but still something of interest since on the edge. Tues of course being the bigger story.

[tron777]

Good Sunday morning all! I was out east morel mushroom hunting in the woods all day yesterday. Despite the rain and thunder, we managed to score big and picked 84 mushrooms with about 25 of those being of the large yellow variety! Good eatin'! I might go back out next weekend too. Our season is almost over due to the undergrowth. I think we can get another week or so in, then our season will be winding down and it'll be time to hunt up north for them if it isn't close already.

Weather wise... We've got some dry time now but rain and storms looks to return by about Tuesday. A few showers late Thurs with likely action Fri spilling over into this coming Sat. So active is the key word going forwards for next week. Tues still is a possible thread starter for severe wx. Latest from the SPC has a slight risk out for portions of AV Country.

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[tron777]

CVG checking in with 0.30" for rainfall event total over the last 2 days. Similar amounts here. We probably saw 1/2 to 1" of rain where we were near the Brown / Pike Co border region yesterday.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and once again the trend continues as higher rain amounts and any severe weather continues to be mainly west and northwest of us. Still believe that will continue and the closer we get to another event the chances go down. I just don't this kind of pattern to produce any widespread severe weather for us locally though as we know any storm can get severe but isolated. Just looking into the future and the week of the 9th may bring a decent warm up with several days in the 80's. However I still see some cool shots in the northern plains and add that to a decent heat surge over Texas the severe weather may tend to ramp up then.

Les I know very little about mushrooms except the ones from the 70's

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and once again the trend continues as higher rain amounts and any severe weather continues to be mainly west and northwest of us. Still believe that will continue and the closer we get to another event the chances go down. I just don't this kind of pattern to produce any widespread severe weather for us locally though as we know any storm can get severe but isolated. Just looking into the future and the week of the 9th may bring a decent warm up with several days in the 80's. However I still see some cool shots in the northern plains and add that to a decent heat surge over Texas the severe weather may tend to ramp up then.

Les I know very little about mushrooms except the ones from the 70's

LOL! These are the good eatin' kind. Deep fried some last night. Going to have a few more tonight sautéed in garlic, butter, and onions. Anyway... We'll have to see Tues how much instability we can get, or will it be cloudy and rainy all morning to ruin the chances. We seem to be stuck in that rut and can't get any heating going. Or if we are warm, we have a dry airmass in place like today (although I am not complaining. I like low dews when the sun is out) LOL

Long term looks cool. Not cold but cool. I see 40 to 45 for us down here for a couple of nights down the road, maybe U30s for I-70 posters. We are just about in the clear down our way to begin the growing season. I-70 folks won't be far behind. Not seeing any widespread heat or very warm conditions for us as of yet. Agree with you that stays over the West / S Plains, TX, OK, etc. In time, we shall see how far NE the heat expands this summer. With another strengthening La Nina, the Bermuda High should be pumping this year. I'm hoping it means MCS City for us instead of hot and dry. A little too early to know until we see how May is going to go. At CVG, April was cooler then normal but also drier then normal. As long as May is wet, we're fine. We do not want to end May below avg in rain either.

[tron777]

For Tues.... at CVG, the 12Z GFS model is going with a half inch of rain. 12Z Euro coming in with around a quarter of an inch. Siding with the Euro here based on the last few events, going lower has been right around here. Not for all of our coverage area but for CVG Land it's been panning out. Again all due to bad timing. Things weaken and we get the leftovers only to blossom again to our East, as what happened yesterday. A prime example.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG checking in with 0.30" for rainfall event total over the last 2 days. Similar amounts here. We probably saw 1/2 to 1" of rain where we were near the Brown / Pike Co border region yesterday.

My gauge picked up .30" also from Sat / Sat night.

Had some breaded mushrooms as part of lunch today at Rob's in Brookville, OH.

[tpweather]

CVG checking in with 0.30" for rainfall event total over the last 2 days. Similar amounts here. We probably saw 1/2 to 1" of rain where we were near the Brown / Pike Co border region yesterday.

My gauge picked up .30" also from Sat / Sat night.

Had some breaded mushrooms as part of lunch today at Rob's in Brookville, OH.

I love mushroom guys. First time I ever had them was at all places Kings Island in probably around 1973 or 1974. Loved them since.

[tron777]

CVG checking in with 0.30" for rainfall event total over the last 2 days. Similar amounts here. We probably saw 1/2 to 1" of rain where we were near the Brown / Pike Co border region yesterday.

My gauge picked up .30" also from Sat / Sat night.

Had some breaded mushrooms as part of lunch today at Rob's in Brookville, OH.

I love mushroom guys. First time I ever had them was at all places Kings Island in probably around 1973 or 1974. Loved them since.

Me too, Tim! I have bought those home growing kits before where you can grow your own button mushrooms, baby portabellas, etc. Had great success once and a failure another time lol Tried to grow my own morels and those things are so tough! I have never been successful there indoor or outdoor patches. But my family has access to some good hunting grounds through a family friend out that way and man oh man did we score in the rain on Saturday. Gonna probably try it one more time next Saturday as part of my Birthday Celebration Week next week.

[tron777]

A beautiful day today guys... 75 here currently and at CVG with dews in the 40s! We'll have an equally nice day tomorrow before we get wet on Tues and receive possible strong to severe t-storms. A dry Wed then late Thurs and esp Thurs night, Fri, and probably lingering into Sat as well so not a bunch of dry time in there. But, we need the rain in some areas and the shroom season should be peaking this week in our local area.

[MVWxObserver]

Hi Tim and Les,

I've loved mushrooms since I was a year old going way back to 1964 into part of 1965 when my folks, then newborn sister and I lived in Rhode Island. We lived in Cranston and I had my 1st ever mushroom burger at a restaurant called Newport Creamery.

There's also a restaurant called Asian Buffet here in Greenville where I've had mushrooms marinated in oyster sauce.

Tim, speaking of Kings Island ~~ Happy BIG 50TH Anniversary as of this past Fri April 29th!! I was 9 yrs old when it opened.

Was neat when "The Brady Bunch" cast did an episode there as well as "The Partridge Family"!

Well, back to weather ...

Currently 61 here in my area, not sure what the high was.

DAY reached 77 and CMH 78. Will be interesting to see if there's any adjustment on those #'s.

[tron777]

Awesome Eric! Did you ever go out into the woods and look for morels as a kid or younger adult? Pretty tasty stuff and worth the effort to get out and look. It is good exercise and you walk up and down a lot of hills. I found a lot of the bigger ones growing on a hillside next to dead elms.

[MVWxObserver]

Awesome Eric! Did you ever go out into the woods and look for morels as a kid or younger adult? Pretty tasty stuff and worth the effort to get out and look. It is good exercise and you walk up and down a lot of hills. I found a lot of the bigger ones growing on a hillside next to dead elms.

Hi Les,

Nope, I never have. I have another wxbuddy named Matthew who lives in Newton, Iowa and he enjoys morel hunting, too.

[tron777]

Good Monday morning to you all! A lovely day in store before tomorrow's action.

If anyone would like to start a thread for tomorrow's possible strong to severe storms, please do so. Maybe you will have better luck then me. Latest SPC Outlook to consider:

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[tpweather]

Good Morning and today looks like the pick of the week. Do we get any severe weather on Tuesday. We know many things need to line up to get severe weather in a more widespread area. Timing is key and this time we may be in a much better zone which is during the afternoon and early evening. This system is not heading towards the poles as the past several had so the low itself is passing much closer to us which ups the chances for severe weather. Looks like some decent rains overnight into early Tuesday morning. That could be the key for later in the day. How long does the rain last in the morning and of course the leftover debris clouds. The sooner the sun can break through the clouds the chances go up. Early May and the sun is strong so that can usually overcome the debris clouds but what time does the rain end in the morning. Mainly a straight line wind event with some downpours but always a chance for a tornado or two and something we will watch. No doubt this is the best chance in the last several weeks for severe weather and that is mainly due to timing locally. Later in the week like Les mentioned could be longer term event as we get warm moist air moving in with a low pressure but could see the old low pressure stuck in the great lakes throwing spokes of rainfall through part of Saturday. To early on forecasting rainfall amounts but could be a more extended time period.