April 2022 Weather Discussion

[snowbo]

32 with a decent frost here.

[tron777]

35 here - did not see much in the way of frost but if there was any it was light. Exciting times ahead on the long range models! May is the typical peak of the tornado season and if the models are correct it will play out that way across the central and eastern US over the next couple of weeks at least.

La Nina rages on!

[tron777]

Good Morning and no frost at my house but its a bit nippy to say the least. Looks like we start to get into a stormier pattern late this week but how far off are the models in terms of possible rainfall. Many models are showing well over 2 inches in this period and that would be great. Saying that and you try to look at what the pattern is showing us and it seems to me heavier precip in the Missouri Valley into the great lakes but these systems seem to run into drier air in the Ohio Valley. This tempers my thoughts on how much rainfall will occur. I am going with 1-2 inches between later Friday through Mothers Day. I hope my prediction fails and we get double that amount but from what I see so far I will go with the lower number. There will be plenty of dry periods as well but trying to pin those down can be tough as several systems will be happening over the eastern half of the country.

Timing hasn't been on our side either. If you use this last system as an example, the rain was in a weakening phase headed into the area because of lack of instability since it happened in the morning. No sun, couldn't get any heating. Dews finally get above 60 but it was a struggle so meager moisture return too. Anyway... we need a system to get us in the warm sector say overnight. Then you've got all of the next day for sun and warming to occur before the front comes in late in the day. That sort of timing has occurred to our west so we get the weakening junk as it moves in. We need systems to have better timing. It's been terrible for t-storm development thus far.

[tron777]

I agree with a more active pattern upcoming... we need to fix the timing issues as mentioned above for severe wx concerns to increase. So far it's been a threat west of us and will continue to do so. If the timing issue resolves itself with any incoming system, then we'll have some good stuff to track. La Nina is strengthening so lets see what impacts it has going forward. Should be good for severe wx with an enhanced SE ridge (should typical Nina effects emerge of course!)

For the short term, there is a severe wx risk on Sat per SPC to the SW of us in the usual areas. West KY, West TN, MO, ILL, yadda yadda yadda.

[winterstormjoe]

As far as the rain department is concerned, these storm systems seem to move across the great lakes with these cold fronts with timing issues an limited moisture. We need the NW flow to ease up some and allow some SW systems to move up the MS valley for some better soaking rains and some app runners wouldn't hurt either. We may be in trouble for some drought conditions come this summer if we can't in to some better rains. Also, hopefully the MCS train can get going especially if this NW flow continues and if a heat dome develops over the southern plains with disturbances riding over it.

[tron777]

As far as the rain department is concerned, these storm systems seem to move across the great lakes with these cold fronts with timing issues an limited moisture. We need the NW flow to ease up some and allow some SW systems to move up the MS valley for some better soaking rains and some app runners wouldn't hurt either. We may be in trouble for some drought conditions come this summer if we can't in to some better rains. Also, hopefully the MCS train can get going especially if this NW flow continues and if a heat dome develops over the southern plains with disturbances riding over it.

Exactly. We're saying the same thing.

[tron777]

The only change to the current forecast is that it looks like the rain from the warm front is coming to make a run at us on Friday now so chance POPS are required. This could lead to a wetter Sat but a better potential for dryness on Sunday. Let's see how models resolve those timing issues in the next few runs.

[tpweather]

As far as the rain department is concerned, these storm systems seem to move across the great lakes with these cold fronts with timing issues an limited moisture. We need the NW flow to ease up some and allow some SW systems to move up the MS valley for some better soaking rains and some app runners wouldn't hurt either. We may be in trouble for some drought conditions come this summer if we can't in to some better rains. Also, hopefully the MCS train can get going especially if this NW flow continues and if a heat dome develops over the southern plains with disturbances riding over it.

Hey Joe,great post and you summed it up nicely. The SW systems will only last a certain time and then you must rely on the MCS train to help in the rain department. After that then we just look to afternoon pop up t-storms for the summer. Long term we are still in great shape concerning water levels but how long is the short term drought this summer season. To early for that prediction but May and early June usually gives us a heads up on what to expect.

[Bgoney]

I don't see anything that grabs my attention as far as severe potential for the first 10 days of May. Brief and muted return flow(DPs) off the Gulf as the biggest inhibiting factors. Severe should stay in the central and south central states and Tennessee Valley as noted earlier

[tron777]

I don't see anything that grabs my attention as far as severe potential for the first 10 days of May. Brief and muted return flow(DPs) off the Gulf as the biggest inhibiting factors. Severe should stay in the central and south central states and Tennessee Valley as noted earlier

We're in agreement on this due to the timing issues as discussed. The richer get richer so to speak and we'll continue to see the scraps. Just hope this doesn't mean dry come summer. If the storm track can shift a bit more SE if would help for MCS's.

I am digging this beautiful spring weather this week after the hell of last week at Erie. Low 60s in the afternoon and I prefer the 40s in the morning vs the 30s but it's still nice lol Low humidity. It sure beats what's to come.

[tron777]

63 here today, currently 57 with a dew of 40. Frost and freeze advisories across our forum area:

Da Boys.png

[Bgoney]

[/quote]

La Nina rages on!
[/quote]

Incredible for late April that LaNina is growing stronger still, and now virtually a lock going Into next winter for a third winter season

[MVWxObserver]

63 here today, currently 57 with a dew of 40. Frost and freeze advisories across our forum area:


Da Boys.png

Hopefully the last frost / freeze alert of the Spring!

[tron777]

La Nina rages on!


Incredible for late April that LaNina is growing stronger still, and now virtually a lock going Into next winter for a third winter season

Yes. I've heard it termed "the triple dip" La Nina and if I recall when I was reading about this online, we may have seen this occur 3 times since we've kept records on this stuff. A very small sample size so its impacts are going to be interesting to watch unfold.

[tron777]

Good morning! A small chance for sprinkles today otherwise 60ish or so once again. 40s this morning so much better then the 30s lol

[tpweather]

Good Morning and not many changes with the forecast though Friday could be a little cooler with the warm front to the south and this can lead to an area just north of the front that is cloudy and cooler. Besides that we wait for each system to head this way and hopefully get in on some decent rains over the next 10 days but imo the amounts still look less than models are trying to show. Concerning severe weather and no strong outbreak imo and yes you can always have a day where the severe chance is somewhat elevated but unless I see some strong heat in the southern plains trying to move north I am just not to concerned.

[Bgoney]

La Nina rages on!


Incredible for late April that LaNina is growing stronger still, and now virtually a lock going Into next winter for a third winter season

Yes. I've heard it termed "the triple dip" La Nina and if I recall when I was reading about this online, we may have seen this occur 3 times since we've kept records on this stuff. A very small sample size so its impacts are going to be interesting to watch unfold.

It's running the show for sure, look at the SOI!!!. And it's been a complete beat down of the MJO, with no let up in sight

Screenshot_20220428-084046_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

La Nina rages on!


Incredible for late April that LaNina is growing stronger still, and now virtually a lock going Into next winter for a third winter season

Yes. I've heard it termed "the triple dip" La Nina and if I recall when I was reading about this online, we may have seen this occur 3 times since we've kept records on this stuff. A very small sample size so its impacts are going to be interesting to watch unfold.

It's running the show for sure, look at the SOI!!!. And it's been a complete beat down of the MJO, with no let up in sight

Screenshot_20220428-084046_Chrome.jpg

Wow... so any model showing the Nina weakening is dead wrong. I wonder if it could reach mod to strong status again this summer? Wouldn't surprise me at all.

[tron777]

Good Morning and not many changes with the forecast though Friday could be a little cooler with the warm front to the south and this can lead to an area just north of the front that is cloudy and cooler. Besides that we wait for each system to head this way and hopefully get in on some decent rains over the next 10 days but imo the amounts still look less than models are trying to show. Concerning severe weather and no strong outbreak imo and yes you can always have a day where the severe chance is somewhat elevated but unless I see some strong heat in the southern plains trying to move north I am just not to concerned.

If the positioning of the warm front is right, some guidance has U40s to L50s on Friday for highs. Yuck...

[tron777]

12Z GFS says watch the May 6-9th period for possible Frost! UGH... I wanna plant my crops / flowers!

[MVWxObserver]

12Z GFS says watch the May 6-9th period for possible Frost! UGH... I wanna plant my crops / flowers!

Happy Frosters Day, Ma Nature Mother!

[tron777]

12Z GFS says watch the May 6-9th period for possible Frost! UGH... I wanna plant my crops / flowers!

Happy Frosters Day, Ma Nature Mother!

It's normal but it is getting ridiculous at the same time!

[tron777]

Euro isn't looking quite that chilly by Day 10 as the GFS shows currently, thank God. Watch the GFS be right of course.

[dce]

Euro isn't looking quite that chilly by Day 10 as the GFS shows currently, thank God. Watch the GFS be right of course.

The GFS for next Friday. You've got to be kidding me! I hope not!

[cloudy72]

The GFS for next Friday. You've got to be kidding me! I hope not!

Global Warming! We may hit 80 again by August at this rate LOL