Severe Threat for Wed 3/23/22

[cloudy72]

SPC upgraded I-70 corridor to Slight risk tomorrow....

OH_swody2.png

[tron777]

Good luck to you guys up there! We are waiting on that stubborn warm front to make its move. Everything is in slow-motion today. We are waiting on the energy to eject out of the SW which should kick start everything to move more east bound tonight. Showers should end in the morning and we will see a break. CAPE to be determined for the storms to work with in the afternoon and evening on Wed.

Discussion from the SPC to go with Mike's image.

...Ohio Valley...
Air mass destabilization is anticipated across the Middle OH Valley
amid strong diurnal heating in the wake of early morning showers and
cloudiness. Dewpoints will likely be rather modest (i.e. in the
upper 50s), but steep low-level lapse rates and cold temperatures
aloft (i.e. -18 to -20 deg C at 500 mb) will still support moderate
buoyancy. Forcing for ascent along the front will be augmented by
favored jet streak dynamics, and the expectation is for cellular
development along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Large
hail and strong wind gusts are the most probable severe hazards, but
a tornado or two is also possible.

[MVWxObserver]

Ohio statewide tornado drill has been canceled for Wed due to obvious reasons.

[cloudy72]

Wow - so I see why SPC went slight risk for central and east Ohio tomorrow. HRRR sig tornado parameter in the afternoon - yikes!

F520D28E-FAC6-4C4B-ABAB-5C08333867AF.png

[cloudy72]

NAM

1EF4E7AE-47F0-4F6E-83EE-83AFF1BA1EA9.png

[tron777]

Dews are low, only 40 here but my temp has come up to 68 so a nice evening currently. Still dry all day long. Just need some juicy dews and we're in business which should happen by tomorrow afternoon. Latest sig. tor parameter from the SREF model has a low TOR threat East of I-75 and the highest threat over SE Ohio, WVA and Eastern KY down into SC and GA.

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f030.gif

[tron777]

NAM and HRRR (18Z soundings) both show a marginal risk for severe wx down here for Cincy and for Central Ohio, including Dayton and Columbus, the better tornado risk is def showing up to the north. Not zero for CVG Land but much higher to our north. Better wind threat for us, and isolated at best IMO.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! A much warmer and more humid morning out there! Dews are closer to 50 now with temps near 60 this morning. Radar only has spotty activity this morning as we await the cold front's arrival around the midday to early afternoon hours. By the time the evening rush hits, the severe threat should by and large be over as temps begin to drop with more light rain and drizzle occurring overnight.

No changes from the SPC overnight in terms of hazards and chances go. Same deal as we posted on yesterday when the thread was started.

[tron777]

62 at CVG with a dew of 49. S winds gusting to 25 mph attm.

[tron777]

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/03/23/stormt ... pdate-323/

[tron777]

A peak of sun happening here now. We need better dews and that's going to hinder some of the development and organization of the development. Bad moisture return. Great dynamics though so there's that. Plenty of wind energy and spin to work with. I like the SPC's current depiction. It should work out just fine.

[cloudy72]

Seeing blue sky breaks to my south and southwest. Temp here is 61 with dewpoint of 50.

[tron777]

Visible showing more sun breaks developing and some weak CAPE now developing just to the west. 63 / 54 at CVG

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 59 here in G'ville, DP of 48, and Rel Humidity of 68%. Progged to get to around 67 this afternoon if conditions permit.

[cloudy72]

67/55 here with plenty of sunshine now.

[MVWxObserver]

61 here with a DP still at 48, RH of 63% and sunny.

[tron777]

Cloudy here... 64 / 57 at CVG. Glad to see the dews coming up some. Would like a bit more sun but we'll take what we can get. ILN is going to do a special 18Z balloon launch I believe.

[Angelika]

This was just posted on FB. Did something change?

[tron777]

Hey Ang... Nothing has changed. The threat will evolve right over us at first and be off to the east after 2 pm or so. The above is just showing us the timing for the I-75 Corridor basically.

[tron777]

ALERT: A 60% chance of a T-storm watch being issued for a good chunk of our area: See MD below from the SPC.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0322.html

[cloudy72]

ALERT

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
129 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southern Franklin County in southeastern Indiana...
Northern Ripley County in southeastern Indiana...
Northwestern Dearborn County in southeastern Indiana...

* Until 200 PM EDT.

* At 129 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Versailles, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Batesville, Versailles, Milan, Osgood, Oldenburg, Sunman, St. Leon,
Holton, Napoleon, Huntersville, Ballstown, Penntown, Weisburg,
Interstate 74 at State Route 101, Versailles Lake, Otter Village,
New Trenton, Lawrenceville, Saint Peter and New Alsace.

This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 147 and 165.

[tron777]

67 / 58 as of 1pm at CVG, that's getting better. Watching those cells to my SW closely.

[tron777]

That cell all by itself N of Richmond, IN also bears watching...

[tron777]

Current SPC mesopage numbers:

CAPE - 1000 J/kg
Bulk shear - 90-100 knots lol
Helicity - Weak, best spin is to the east of a lot of us
LI's: -2 for most, -3 over East Central IN
DCAPE: 400-600 better values over 1000 over the Apps.
LAPE Rates: 7.0 to 7.5 - Not too bad
LCL Heights are low, so probably some funnel clouds possible. Low chance of anything touching down IMHO. Exceptions: Eastern half of Ohio WV, Eastern KY, etc.

Hail parameters are decent with freezing levels of 8000-9000 feet.

[cloudy72]

Just had a brief downpour here. Temp 67 Dew 59.