Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022

[tpweather]

Starting to see some feeder bands in western Ky and Tn. This should help in providing periods of moderate to heavy snow at times later tonight in the warning areas.

[House of Cards]

snowing here now. came on pretty sudden in the past 1/2hr.

[tpweather]

Heavy snow in central Arkansas, System is really getting itself together

[tron777]

39 / 31 here Was just outside taking trash out, grabbing the mail etc before the snow comes later.

Love seeing snow increasing in coverage and intensity over S IN. Phasing is ongoing now as things are starting to get cranked up as Tim mentioned. We wouldn't have seen much if the storm had waited much later so the timing is pretty good actually that it's starting now.

[tpweather]

Hey Les and hope you guys enjoy an nice snow this evening and overnight. Maybe the models were more accurate a few days ago which had the warmth hanging on longer which in turn slows the front down enough to combine with the system getting itself together and the precip totals were more in the .25-.40. Not changing the forecast but need to watch over the next few hours and see how this system is getting itself together.

[tron777]

Hey Les and hope you guys enjoy an nice snow this evening and overnight. Maybe the models were more accurate a few days ago which had the warmth hanging on longer which in turn slows the front down enough to combine with the system getting itself together and the precip totals were more in the .25-.40. Not changing the forecast but need to watch over the next few hours and see how this system is getting itself together.

I agree... no one is suggesting that we will overachieve, just because other areas have. The storm is in its developing stages and we need to continue to see the snow coverage increasing as well as intensity. Snow blossoming over Central IN. The phasing is better timed for us versus what was shown on modeling IMO if these current trends I am seeing continue. 2" won't be a problem.

[tron777]

The evolution is so fun to watch right before our eyes. Showers increasing over KY and TN as well as MS. That moisture is feeding into the snow band which we want to see. Showers and storms feeding into the upper level portion of the system over AR. Things are beginning to come together. Looking perfect!

[tron777]

Call me crazy.. but I think the front is hanging up further to the NW. Was supposed to be along the Apps, but it's actually much further to the West. Still 55 in Lexington, 60 in Richmond KY but we are in the 30s at 37 here now in my hood. 31-32 in Western half of KY.

[tron777]

I believe the front is in our extreme SE CWA now. Still 60 in Vanceburg, Lewis Co KY.

[tpweather]

Call me crazy.. but I think the front is hanging up further to the NW. Was supposed to be along the Apps, but it's actually much further to the West. Still 55 in Lexington, 60 in Richmond KY but we are in the 30s at 37 here now in my hood. 31-32 in Western half of KY.

Les your crazy!!! Sort of goes with my post a few back how maybe the models a few days ago had the front hanging in a little linger compared to the models the past 24 hours.

[tron777]

Call me crazy.. but I think the front is hanging up further to the NW. Was supposed to be along the Apps, but it's actually much further to the West. Still 55 in Lexington, 60 in Richmond KY but we are in the 30s at 37 here now in my hood. 31-32 in Western half of KY.

Les your crazy!!! Sort of goes with my post a few back how maybe the models a few days ago had the front hanging in a little linger compared to the models the past 24 hours.

Thank you!

[tron777]

4" fell today N of South Bend, IN Even Detroit, Mi managed an inch or so out of the deal as the Arctic front came thru.

[Wxlrnr]

Just out with the pup. Starting a light mixed precipitation.

[tron777]

LOU's AFD this afternoon talked about potentially needing to expand the warnings a row or two of counties to the west should obs / model trends warrant it.

[tron777]

Man... radar has really filled in nicely over Southern IN.... the show is about to commence!

[tpweather]

LOU's AFD this afternoon talked about potentially needing to expand the warnings a row or two of counties to the west should obs / model trends warrant it.

Les they did increase the totals for the warning areas and also the eastern part of the advisory and its that eastern part of the advisory they are no doubt looking at this evening

[tron777]

This looks great...700 MB frontogenic forcing... this all has to work thru our hoods folks. This storm in my opinion incoming together nicely! I don't know if it's going to overachieve yet, but I see nothing saying we get screwed either lol

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[cloudy72]

Moderate snow here now and 31 - roof and car tops getting covered

[tron777]

34 / 27 - Wow, this cold air means business and it is undercutting the moisture streaming in behind the front from the SW. Wonderful overrunning situation with tremendous left and forcing thanks to the AR wave and the wave dropping in from the NW all coming together right over the OV. What an interesting system we get to track tonight.

[tpweather]

Trying to judge pressure falls compared to what models showed. So far strength seems about what they had advertised but the position imo is about 75 miles further north than predicted. Not much but something to look along with many other items this evening.

[tron777]

Ok so let's see how this shakes out. A possible low of 1008 MB maybe developing down in the Gulf. Pressure falls indicate that this may track over AL and into NE TN later tonight. Some models had it over Central NC. If we get that western track (not WV I know but NE TN would do the trick)... we could overachieve getting a low track like that. I am not forecasting it, still going with my original call, but something to watch as the evening wears on. Keep watching meso page and radar trends. It'll tell the story. Keep posting temps, obs, snowfall amounts, etc. Thanks all!

EDIT: Tim, I think we are on the same page here in terms of track and thinking.

[tpweather]

Les,no doubt and should be fun to watch from afar.

[tron777]

Just starting to see a few droplets of rain. As the column cools and saturates and as the precip rates pick up, I should turn to snow rather quickly.

[tron777]

Wait a minute... flurries now... Well that didn't take long!

[tron777]

Big flakes. . I'm impressed!