Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022

[tpweather]

Hopefully the evening models continue with a little uptick. Was planning on returning Saturday morning but with the weather in the mountains it looks like Sunday or maybe even Monday. Been very moist and cold down here the last two days but can't complain with all the nice weather the past 2 weeks.

[Pepper]

Travel question leaving at 2:00 am heading to Mississippi close to New Orleans LA what wickedness may I encounter. Hopefully no tornados! Thanks in advance

[tpweather]

Travel question leaving at 2:00 am heading to Mississippi close to New Orleans LA what wickedness may I encounter. Hopefully no tornados! Thanks in advance

Good Evening and should have no problems and the only problem is it may be really cold down there on Saturday especially for that region.

[Pepper]

Thanks! It will be warmer than here lol

[tpweather]

The system heading into the northern plains is powerful with a snow squall warning for part of N. Dakota plus the winds are gusting above 50 mph and temps dropping like a rock. Wherever the two pieces of energy finally phase this is going to be very intense. Waiting to see some blizzard watches for the northeast before all is said and done. Staying with the forecast and I have been itching to move up the total by 1 inch but I am worried about the northwest part of the area may not get 2 inches though I can see the southeast area getting 4. Such a close call but either way roads will become a problem overnight Friday until probably around noon on Saturday plus could see an isolated snow shower on Saturday followed by a very cold Saturday night with single digits possible in some outlying areas especially if we have a nice snow cover

[Bgoney]

Goodluck everyone with our event . Rolling with the 1-3 forecast for most of cvgland , 12 hrs from event, any changes now and its not much of a forecast and consider it another beat down from Ma nature . Just a reminder , please don't focus on the higher number forecast which is always best case scenario, but the range.

Road temps will probably be in the low 40s by afternoon , temps don't start to fall into the mid 20 until after midnight so roads should be fine until then with the exception of some elevated surfaces

[tron777]

Good morning all! Winter weather advisories and warnings out for the area in the spots we've expected them to be in. 1-3" if you're in the advisory and 4"+ possible if you're in the warning area in our far Eastern counties. Looks like we're all onboard and have similar thinking with this system. We are in nowcasting mode and we'll see some models today for any tweaks. Let's hope for a bump west and not anymore to the east. Sheesh!

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys - Not much change from previous discussions:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today, a large scale mid level trough will be digging
southeast into the western Great Lakes and middle Mississippi
Valley. This trough will be associated with an Arctic cold front
which is poised to push into our region tonight. Large scale
ascent will begin to bring light precipitation to our northwest
zones this morning, mainly in the form of light snow. For this
afternoon, precipitation will gradually increase in coverage
across the northern zones as low to mid level frontogenesis
starts to increase. Temperatures will start out warm enough that
the precipitation will begin as a rain or a rain/snow mix when
it arrives closer to the I-70 corridor. However, by late in the
day, winds begin to turn toward the northwest with CAA
increasing. This will change the pcpn to snow toward evening as
another surge of moisture increases from the southwest. Will
talk about that in the short term discussion. Otherwise, snow
accumulations across the north will be low given day time
insolation and some rain mixing in, about an inch or less. Highs
today will vary quite a bit, ranging from the mid 30s far
northwest to near 60 southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A very focused period of low to mid level frontogenesis is
expected tonight, mainly for locations along and southeast of
the I-71 corridor. As the mid level trough continues to dig east
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, aforementioned Arctic
front will be pushed southeast. The increasing CAA from this
front and moisture/WAA spreading northeast from a Gulf Coast Low
will result in widespread pcpn for much of the southern/eastern
forecast area. Rain will quickly mix with and then change to
snow as temperatures drop. It still appears that the heaviest
snow will fall across our southeast zones. Will be upgrading
some of these counties from a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter
Storm Warning where 3 to 5 inches of snow may fall. To the west
of this Warning, will be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for
our lower criteria zones south of the I-70 corridor where 1 to 3
inches of snow may fall. For the Dayton and Columbus metro
areas and points to the north, 1 to 2 inches of snow is
expected. Will issue an SPS for locations in the lower criteria
north of the Advisory/Warning area. With colder temperatures
funneling southeast, conditions will become slick. Winds will
become gusty overnight. It will be cold by morning with lows
ranging from 15 to 20. Wind chill values will drop to near zero
across the west and in the single digits in the east.

The main shield of synoptic snow will be quickly exiting the
region to the east Saturday morning. Continued CAA, steep low
level lapse rates, and a fetch off Lake Michigan will bring a
few snow showers. Temperatures will not warm much as 850 mb
temperatures will be around -18 C. Thus, highs will only rise
into the lower to mid 20s for the most part. It will be brisk
with winds gusting close to 30 mph. This will result in wind
chill values in the single digits and teens.

By Saturday night, Arctic high pressure will traverse east
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Skies will clear from the
west. Then, WAA aloft will begin to spread mid and high level
clouds east. Winds will settle down some in the evening, but
pick back up from the south late. Lows will range from the mid
to the upper teens.

[tron777]

Seeing 2-4" of snow being reported already from that band of snow in ILL and IN. That's over performing already in some areas. Let's keep an eye on what happens upstream folks behind the front.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and I agree to leave the forecast alone. Just not enough confidence that everyone in the local area gets to the 2 inch mark so left it at 1-3. Would not be surprised though that somebody in the southeast portion of our area gets over the 3 inch mark. Concerning roads and they will start out wet but how quickly do we go from say 35-25 degrees will determine if the wet roads become ice quickly. I know road temps have been in the 40's and not the 70 the NWS in Indy mentioned yesterday. Again like Bgoney mentioned elevated surfaces the most likely spots but since the cold is coming in the middle of the night please be careful just in case the roads turn in a short period of time.

[tron777]

The cold will absolutely be charging in fast, so road temps will drop quickly and if the rate is heavy enough, there will be a few problems. Most numerous issues of course in our SE where the snow will be heaviest and last the longest.

[BookNerdCarp]

Time for a lawn chair, popcorn, and a good drink to watch the festivities unfold! LOL

[tron777]

I'm watching a water vapor loop here and you can see the lobe of the PV dropping into the Western Lakes / Upper Midwest like over MN with a band of snow behind of the arctic front. Meanwhile, the southern energy is rolling out of New Mexico and into Texas. Gulf will be open for business today and moisture will begin to stream northbound as a result. The phasing process should begin later today as a low forms in the Gulf, down in TX / LA, or thereabouts.

[tron777]

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/03/11/snowta ... pdate-312/

[tron777]

I don't think we'll beat the record cold high of 26 for Sat from 1896. It depends on what the temp is at midnight tonight, which will probably be higher then that.

[tron777]

9Z SREF has an inch for CVG / Dayton and about 2" for Columbus.

[tron777]

12Z HRRR has about a 6-8 period of snow using CVG as a reference point. An inch CVG, 2"+ SE counties. Seems to be the theme now. Will still keep my 2" call at CVG and for here despite some models only going with an inch.

[tron777]

0.12" from the 12Z NAM at CVG so another model saying an inch here, 2" SE crew basically.

[tpweather]

Concerns that I see so far this morning is the cold front seems to be booking right along. Normally we love to see that but the quicker it moves through here the chances go down for snow besides the snow with the front itself. Will watch the speed and yes it will slow down once the low gets itself together but like we have seen most of the winter the northern stream is just to fast.

[tron777]

Concerns that I see so far this morning is the cold front seems to be booking right along. Normally we love to see that but the quicker it moves through here the chances go down for snow besides the snow with the front itself. Will watch the speed and yes it will slow down once the low gets itself together but like we have seen most of the winter the northern stream is just to fast.

Yeah and the southern stream wave needs to pick up some speed, it is lagging a bit. Needs to get a move on lol We need the snow directly behind the front to be enhanced from the injection of southern stream moisture before it completely shuts off for us.

[tron777]

Mid to upper 20s now across Central IN. Bloomington at 34. We are awaiting the frontal passage in the next few hours here. Winds still southerly at CVG and 43. Should crack 50 before the front shuts the warmth off.

[tron777]

12Z 3KM NAM is about the same as the OP NAM.

[tron777]

Up to 50 now as of 10am at the Airport, so let's see how high we go.

[tron777]

As of 10am, front should be over our Western counties. NW wind at HAO and Batesville, IN but Middletown and CVG still have SW winds.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM has 1.5" for CVG, 2" SE of I-71 and about 3" for Matt. An inch or so for Dayton and 2-3" for Columbus.