Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022

[tpweather]

That is correct Les but is the low in WV or east Tn and not sure models are sure where that is taking place. So at the end of the day the forecast we have out looks good but as we know there will be bust in certain places and that happens with every system I have seen since the dark ages. I just believe the front itself may pull a little more energy a tad earlier which helps out the folks closer to Indy. No doubt a fast mover and there will be an area where it snows hard for 2-3 hours and that is the place that will overachieve. So if we just get the snow from the front then 1 inch looks perfect but if we can add on another 2-3 hours we get into that 1-3 inch total and for some reason we add a few more hours or that heavier band is over us then totals would go up. Saying all that 1-3 is still the call but still have that 30p/c chance that totals could be over the 3 inch mark. How about Lexington and once again could be the winner once again and if so they could easily double their normal snowfall for a season.

[tron777]

SPC Meso-analysis page tonight shows an arctic high of 1028 MB over Montana with a piece of energy over N New Mexico (1004 MB low) creating heavy snow over Eastern CO, KS, and NEB as warm air advection commences. Overrunning snows behind the arctic front will be associated with this wave tonight into tomorrow spreading northeast and eventually weakening.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0232.html

Meanwhile, the next piece of energy, this bad boy over the Baja on water vapor, we are waiting on it to move east and phase with a piece of the PV dropping south from Canada over the Great Lakes. That process occurs Friday.

https://www.goes.noaa.gov/ceus/conus-wv.html

We'll see how it goes!

[tron777]

That is correct Les but is the low in WV or east Tn and not sure models are sure where that is taking place. So at the end of the day the forecast we have out looks good but as we know there will be bust in certain places and that happens with every system I have seen since the dark ages. I just believe the front itself may pull a little more energy a tad earlier which helps out the folks closer to Indy. No doubt a fast mover and there will be an area where it snows hard for 2-3 hours and that is the place that will overachieve. So if we just get the snow from the front then 1 inch looks perfect but if we can add on another 2-3 hours we get into that 1-3 inch total and for some reason we add a few more hours or that heavier band is over us then totals would go up. Saying all that 1-3 is still the call but still have that 30p/c chance that totals could be over the 3 inch mark. How about Lexington and once again could be the winner once again and if so they could easily double their normal snowfall for a season.

WV into Western PA works best for us like the RGEM but if it's S PA or Eastern TN, or Eastern WV, then we will miss out on the heavier snows. Lexington you are probably right gets 4"

[tron777]

18Z Euro looks good for a healthy 3" isolated 4" certainly in SE Crew zones. 1-2" for Metro looking good. Call looking like money guys I think, barring something odd occurring, we've got this one locked down.

[tron777]

Comparison of 12Z GEFS vs new 18Z GEFS - Nice trend there.

12Zvs18ZGEFS.png

18Z Euro shows Doug's screw zone over SE Cincy zones.

18ZEuroScrewZone.png

[tron777]

ILN on the same exact page as AV!

Mid/upper level short wave will dig down across the western
Great Lakes on Friday and then pivot southeastward across the
mid and upper Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday morning.
As the better dynamics approach, rain will develop into
northwest portions of our area heading into Friday afternoon
and then shift southeastward through the rest of the afternoon.
Models appear to have trended a bit slower with this so will
keep parts of our southeast dry through much of the day.

Widespread pcpn will then overspread the rest of our area
heading into Friday evening and then continue through much of
the night. Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 30s in
the northwest to the upper 50s in our far southeast. Good CAA
will quickly overspread the area from the west Friday evening
on the backside of the cold front. This will allow for a fairly
quick change over to snow from west to east. More widespread
snow may linger across our far east into early Saturday morning.
However, scattered snow showers will likely linger across much
of the area into Saturday, until the mid level trough axis
shifts off to the east through the afternoon. Highest
accumulations still look to be across our far east/southeast
where we may approach 4 inches. With still some uncertainty in
the exact track of this system and with it still being 5th
period, have opted to hold off on any watches for those areas
at the moment. Elsewhere across our area, it looks like 1 to 3
inches of snow will be possible through Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be unseasonably cold on Saturday with daytime
highs only in the mid to upper 20

[tpweather]

Nice maps Les. I believe the Euro is wrong about the screw zone. We might all get the lower amount but we won't have that dreaded warm layer that sometimes hangs around the river up into southern Ohio.

[tron777]

The screw zone will just be an area of lower snow totals. Agree has nothing to do with lack of cold air. It is intensity and longevity of the snow. The cold is going to plow its way in. No problem there lol

CB posted his first call tonight for everyone's viewing pleasure.

CBEarlyCall.png

EDIT: 4" verifies everywhere on CB's map accept for the SW Indy corner. I just noticed that.

[tron777]

Jackpot as in 6"+ Zone: Athens's - Trev's old Stomping grounds, Huntington, WV - Mike, you going to see your Mom for this storm Bro? Mountains of East KY, TN, and WV. Good ole fashioned S Apps snow storm.

[dce]

Comparison of 12Z GEFS vs new 18Z GEFS - Nice trend there.


12Zvs18ZGEFS.png


18Z Euro shows Doug's screw zone over SE Cincy zones.


18ZEuroScrewZone.png

It keeps showing up on virtually every model to one degree or another. That screw zone looks to be for real to me. The placement and severity changes depending on the run, but the models are picking up on an area that will have less snow in between two areas of heavier snow totals. Nothing to do with warmer air this time. As stated, probably has to do with frontogenisis and lift.

[Trevor]

Watches just issued for eastern counties - 3-5” per watch text.

[Bgoney]

I-3" call for the region with a chance at 4 for our SE counties has been Rock steady very early on and imo remains so . QPF totals have steadied into the .20-.40" range for most of region. SE Ohio and Eastern half of KY have also been in the most likely zone for higher accumulations very early on. So, so far , no curve balls from this system , but one more inning to go.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Bgoney has us set up nicely with his post to track any last minute tweaks in the data today. The call has indeed been solid for several days. A lot of times, we are scratching our heads but this set up has been well molded for a long time so it hasn't been very difficult for us in terms of getting it right. The question for tomorrow night is, will she deliver?

Not much change from the boys either in terms of their thinking:

Strengthening cold front will be pushing in from the northwest
on Friday. Fed by a plume of moisture extending from the distant
southwest, precipitation beginning mainly as rain will spread
across the area through the day on Friday. As forcing increases
ahead of a sharpening upper trough, a surface low will develop
to the south, and precip will change to snow Friday evening as
the low level flow shifts to north behind the front. Snow will
continue through Friday night as the surface low shifts toward
the East Coast. Period of heaviest snow looks to be between
Midnight and 7 am Saturday, concentrated over eastern counties
where lift and moisture transport will come into phase. Even as
drier air works in on Saturday behind the low, snow showers will
be possible in the brisk northwest flow with gusts over 20
knots. Current forecast shows storm total snowfall ranging from
2 inches in western counties, 3 inches from Wilmington to
Columbus, up to 4 inches in a group of southeastern counties
where a winter storm watch has been issued.

[dce]

I-3" call for the region with a chance at 4 for our SE counties has been Rock steady very early on and imo remains so . QPF totals have steadied into the .20-.40" range for most of region. SE Ohio and Eastern half of KY have also been in the most likely zone for higher accumulations very early on. So, so far , no curve balls from this system , but one more inning to go.

Yeah. Seems way too easy so far. I have a feeling something will happen that is unexpected. Always does when we think we have the forecast in hand.

[tpweather]

Good morning and great post this morning but Bgoney I believe you are not allowed to use a baseball metaphor until the strike is over. Forecast looks good and still on the fence about whether to go with 1-3 or 2-4. Then you try to figure out if the chances that more folks get under 2 inches or over 3 inches and that once again is a close call. Looks like the area near Lexington and east will be in the sweat spot once again. Funny they could have double their snow total this season and if CVG had the same issue we would be over 40 inches. Both of us in the same pattern but storm track as favored them this season.

[tron777]

Good morning and great post this morning but Bgoney I believe you are not allowed to use a baseball metaphor until the strike is over.

That was beautiful! Don't forget to tip your waitress on your way out, folks!

[tron777]

Overnight models for CVG range from a low of about 1.5" to a high of about 6". Still going with my 2" call for CVG / My Hood but let's see if the goal posts can be narrowed a bit today.

Rough est for CVG

GFS - 1.5"
NAM - 2.5"
Euro - 3"
CMC - 4.5"
RGEM - 6"

[tron777]

CB's Updated Call:

CB New Map.png

[BookNerdCarp]

looks like I might be in jackpot area again. been a good ride this winter in my hood.

[Bgoney]

Good morning and great post this morning but Bgoney I believe you are not allowed to use a baseball metaphor until the strike is over. Forecast looks good and still on the fence about whether to go with 1-3 or 2-4. Then you try to figure out if the chances that more folks get under 2 inches or over 3 inches and that once again is a close call. Looks like the area near Lexington and east will be in the sweat spot once again. Funny they could have double their snow total this season and if CVG had the same issue we would be over 40 inches. Both of us in the same pattern but storm track as favored them this season.

Hey Tim, the good thing is if any tweaks have to be made it is more likely to have to add to the forecast amount than lessen amounts. Regardless of any tweaking, this will probably be the biggest, widespread actual all snow of the season for the region as whole

[tron777]

looks like I might be in jackpot area again. been a good ride this winter in my hood.

You probably have the best chance at 4" in our forum area. Good luck!

[tron777]

Good morning and great post this morning but Bgoney I believe you are not allowed to use a baseball metaphor until the strike is over. Forecast looks good and still on the fence about whether to go with 1-3 or 2-4. Then you try to figure out if the chances that more folks get under 2 inches or over 3 inches and that once again is a close call. Looks like the area near Lexington and east will be in the sweat spot once again. Funny they could have double their snow total this season and if CVG had the same issue we would be over 40 inches. Both of us in the same pattern but storm track as favored them this season.

Hey Tim, the good thing is if any tweaks have to be made it is more likely to have to add to the forecast amount than lessen amounts. Regardless of any tweaking, this will probably be the biggest, widespread actual all snow of the season for the region as whole

Completely agree with this statement!

[tron777]

9Z SREF has a 2" mean for many and 3" as one gets out to the East.

[tron777]

Current Set up:

Surface Map.gif

[tpweather]

Great map Les and can we get the low in the north to slow up just about 4-6 hours would be great.