Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022

[tpweather]

Nice to see some folks getting a little dusting. A few more items about the Friday/Saturday system is the expected warm up before the storm is less so the surface temps will not be as warm. No warm layer above to kill the snow like we see so many times and that means once it changes to snow it will be all snow until maybe the tail end of the system where you lose precip amounts and sometimes frz/drizzle will occur. Still believe folks may be shocked in the northeast. I believe this turns into a blizzard for folks north of NYC and though the system will still move rather quickly it may slow up some when this system explodes. Probably the biggest storm up there this season and since its in the northeast national news will be all over this system starting probably on Thursday when they see this becoming a bigger storm.

[tron777]

9Z SREF Plumes are in - The following is the snowfall mean for each station. Looking juicy!

CVG / HAO / MGY - 3.1"
ILN - 3.6"
DAY - 2.8"
CMH - 3.6"

[tron777]

SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/03/09/snowta ... update-39/

[tpweather]

9Z SREF Plumes are in - The following is the snowfall mean for each station. Looking juicy!

CVG / HAO / MGY - 3.1"
ILN - 3.6"
DAY - 2.8"
CMH - 3.6"

Looks nice and though the snow ratio may start out as 9-1 or 10-1 it may head towards the 15-1 later in the evening and if you are in a spot where the snow is still coming down rather heavy you can get a quick couple of inches in a few hours.

[cloudy72]

9Z SREF Plumes are in - The following is the snowfall mean for each station. Looking juicy!

CVG / HAO / MGY - 3.1"
ILN - 3.6"
DAY - 2.8"
CMH - 3.6"

SREF Prob of at least 3" snow

sref-all-members-indiana-snow_ge_3-7129600.png

[cloudy72]

Mean snowfall...

sref-all-mean-ohio-snow_24hr-7108000.png

[tpweather]

Mike that map looks good though I would expand the chances higher in eastern Kentucky.

[tron777]

With this system and with the warm ground, the Kuchera snow maps are probably going to be over inflated. The 10:1 Ratio maps are going to be much closer to reality.

[tron777]

Let's see if we can get NAM'ed in the next 48 hours. Any takers? Will bet for beer.

[weatherbeast45107]

I guarantee that this storm will bring the biggest snow of the season. Why, you ask? It is simple. I have stayed local and waited all winter for a nice snow however I am scheduled to be in Bloomington Illinois from Friday until late Sunday. Ugh!!!!! Enjoy for me!!!

[Bgoney]

With this system and with the warm ground, the Kuchera snow maps are probably going to be over inflated. The 10:1 Ratio maps are going to be much closer to reality.

Totally agree, yes its at night but grround temps in the 40s to start should eat up a bit of qpf. Im figuring atm that .30" qpf would be 1-2" and say .50"qpf would mean 2-4" snowfall. Models still arent; agreeing on qpf all that much and hope to narrow that down

[Sargent51]

Sorry team…but I’m rooting for a BIG eastern shift. Supposed to have a soccer tournament this weekend. Bring on spring!!

[tron777]

12Z NAM coming in QPF wise with around 0.25" for CVG. Most models are going with those kind of numbers for precip.

[tron777]

Sorry team…but I’m rooting for a BIG eastern shift. Supposed to have a soccer tournament this weekend. Bring on spring!!

The good news is that we will warm up just as fast as we cool down. 60s probably returning next week.

[tron777]

I guarantee that this storm will bring the biggest snow of the season. Why, you ask? It is simple. I have stayed local and waited all winter for a nice snow however I am scheduled to be in Bloomington Illinois from Friday until late Sunday. Ugh!!!!! Enjoy for me!!!

If we overachieve, beer's on me!

[tron777]

With this system and with the warm ground, the Kuchera snow maps are probably going to be over inflated. The 10:1 Ratio maps are going to be much closer to reality.

Totally agree, yes its at night but grround temps in the 40s to start should eat up a bit of qpf. Im figuring atm that .30" qpf would be 1-2" and say .50"qpf would mean 2-4" snowfall. Models still arent; agreeing on qpf all that much and hope to narrow that down

The math looks perfect to me!

[tron777]

12Z RGEM using 10:1 continues to drop winter storm warning criteria snows across I-70 corridor and points SE. It is slower, stronger and more NW with the low track and continues to stay the course with each run. 990s MB low into WVA and PA. That's what we want for a bigger event here. Would like to see better model support for this before changing my 1-3" call. We'll see!

[dce]

12Z RGEM using 10:1 continues to drop winter storm warning criteria snows across I-70 corridor and points SE. It is slower, stronger and more NW with the low track and continues to stay the course with each run. 990s MB low into WVA and PA. That's what we want for a bigger event here. Would like to see better model support for this before changing my 1-3" call. We'll see!

Don't look to the GFS for support. You won't find it there.

[Bgoney]

GFS covers the 1-3" range for the region nicely

[tron777]

0.29" QPF at CVG from the 12z GFS so it is inline with the NAM and some of the other models. RGEM continues to be on the upper end of the guidance envelope.

[tron777]

Regular 12Z Canadian is a bump NW of its 0Z run. It's supporting the RGEM. We're going to need more then that though lol

[tron777]

12Z GEFS Mean has a solid 2-3" across the area.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and believe the forecast still looks good.

[tron777]

It does Tim... most models are in the 1-3" range minus the RGEM and CMC. I'd put them more in the 3-6" camp. UKIE has an inch north of the river 2" south.

[airwolf76]

its hard for me to get excited about snows in March. its always marginal temps , warm ground and never sticks to roads or anything. its been snowing here for about 4 hours now and not much to show for it, so much for a cold March