Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022

[Bgoney]

Id like to see a better western ridge than what is currently modeled for Fri. to improve cvgland chances. It just doesn't have that look for a strengthening southern low, at least ATM

[tron777]

Id like to see a better western ridge than what is currently modeled for Fri. to improve cvgland chances. It just doesn't have that look for a strengthening southern low, at least ATM

The jet just isn't quite as amplified as it was a couple of days ago. Still some time for it to change, but at the same time, the trends this winter have been for a later phase. I was hoping this one would be different due to shorter wave lengths this time of year and it being March... you typically get a better clash of the airmasses too. We'll see... I think we need a day or two yet to pin this one down. I like keeping amounts low as previously stated until we see if a better phase can occur.

[tpweather]

Great points guys. We know models have a rough time with most storms but once you get into March the data is so much less that they can feed off from previous situations. The polar vortex and how it has been held at bay for much of the winter but we are getting this small piece to enter the great lakes area this weekend and with a decent piece of energy and I believe that will help pull the southern system northward and those two pieces of energy will form one of the biggest storms this winter season especially to the northeast. Phasing and will that happen at the Mississippi River or along I-75 or in the mountains will determine how much snow we get. The trend this season has been for a later phase if they phase at all. My thought process so far is it probably phase just to the west of us but the system is still moving right along. How many hours of snowfall will we get and usually in mid-March precip totals are higher so getting .25-.50 is much easier. Of course that is a very wet heavy snow so if you got that kind of precip totals and agree some melting then 1-3 seems like the correct forecast. If the amount of time snow is falling last a few extra hours that can add and inch or two but if you only get say 2 hours of snow then under 1 inch would be the call.

[tron777]

Great post Tim and that's a pretty good summation of what needs too occur for a nice system here. Many runs to go with the NAM finally coming into range as the southern low starts to develop at Hour 84.

[dce]

The GFS is phasing later. The RGEM is looking much better if you like snow.

[tron777]

12Z GFS would still yield a 1-2" event.

[tron777]

12Z CMC is close to its 0Z run, maybe a hair east. 1-3" is still a good call. Lower north and west, highest south and east. I cannot argue with that call right now. The guidance fits.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS Mean has an inch west with 2" in our eastern counties.

[tron777]

12Z UKIE tracks the low from Mobile, AL into West Virginia... pretty much up the East Side of the Apps. Model shows 1-2" at a 10:1 Ratio for most folks.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is a bit weaker / SE but the call still looks good that has already been outlined.

[tron777]

18Z NAM ending at 1am Fri night has almost an inch down as the system begins to get going over the area. The model stops there at 84 hours. Heights are a bump higher, to the NW vs 12Z which is good.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM still showing a healthy event in that 3-6" range.

[tpweather]

Les would love to see the 3-6 inch outcome. One of the problems is how strong is the system to the north. This should be rather strong especially when you have a piece of the polar vortex making a quick entrance into the great lakes. Mid-March we know a lot more moisture available in the gulf states but we will still need to get the moisture northward. One way besides a strong southern system which would normally take care of that but also bring up much warmer air is to have this northern system pull the southern system along with its moisture northward. I still believe this is going to be an explosive system for the northeast and not sure models are seeing how strong yet but how much of the phasing can we get. 1-3 hours and the snow totals are light but getting into the 4-6 hours of snowfall those totals go up and if somehow more than 6 hours or snowfall then we can get to some of the higher totals. Will be fun to watch and again I believe the models still have little past info to go on with this set up and the final outcome is still not shown on the models. So I have played this safe with 1-3 and no way I can change that forecast at this point. The one good thing is the cold air coming in will affect all layers of the atmosphere and will be a rain to snow and no sleet or frz/rain though if we get a little rain first we need to see how quickly the temps drop later Friday because a flash freeze can still happen though with the milder air before it helps somewhat but timing of the system at night can provide more problems.

[tpweather]

Good Evening, so what have we seen today is some models moved a little southeast but not where the system has no impacts. Second is the cold and I thought 55 was possible on Friday but my gut tells me 50 may be the high and models are starting to understand how cold it will be this weekend. Should be fun and hopefully after I believe is a disappointing winter we get that last decent snow.

[tron777]

Tim, you are right. My spiking to 60 call is dead. Might only get to 50-52 as you said. Cold is rushing in quicker so the phase is later. Less precip, more cold. Take the good with the bad. 1-3" is a great call and I see no reason to change it even after reviewing 18Z GFS and Euro guidance. Just hope the bleeding SE stops so we don't have to lower. Hope to see a NW bump the last 48 hours for that 3-6" surprise. You never know. Timing as you know is always key in these set ups. Seasonal trends say bet on 1-3" range for most.

[tron777]

The 18Z GFS was a bump back to the NW from the 12Z guidance. Need a couple more bumps. 18Z Euro was also a bump NW of 12Z. Hope to see that trend as I said continue tonight and tonight. We may have something here if that happens. We'll see.

[tron777]

The Boys favoring the SE Crew for a few inches.


A broad upper level trough in place across much of the CONUS will
begin to shift east Friday into Saturday as an embedded mid level
short wave drops southeast from the upper Plains on Friday and
across the lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley through Saturday.
This will allow for a developing surface wave to shift northeast
along a cold front moving southeast across the region Friday into
Friday night. As the mid level short wave approaches, there will be
an increasing chance of pcpn through Friday afternoon with
widespread pcpn then shifting east across our area through Friday
night. Afternoon readings on Friday will range from near 40 degrees
in the northwest to the mid 50s in the southeast, before possibly
starting to fall late in the day across our northwest.

It looks like pcpn should start off as rain on Friday afternoon, but
as colder air advects into the region behind the front, pcpn should
change over to snow fairly quickly from the northwest through Friday
evening. Snow will begin to taper off from the northwest later
Friday night but will likely continue through the night across our
southeast. There remains some uncertainty between the models with
the timing/strength and placement of the heaviest pcpn associated
with this system. For now will trend toward the GEFS and ECMWF
ensemble means which have a few inches of snow across our southeast
with lesser amounts to the northwest.

A few snow showers may linger into the day on Saturday until the mid
level trough shifts east of our area. Temperatures on Saturday will
be well below normal with daytime highs only in the mid to upper
20s.

[tron777]

Please let this be a trend. Please let this be a trend.

18Z Euro and GEFS Mean - Wow!

18ZEuro.png

GEFSMEan.png

[Bgoney]

Still like the 1-4" range for Fri/Sat Tim and Les have talked about at this early juncture , for most of CVGland, with possible higher amounts for Eastern Ky/Se Ohio. Our Se counties are still game for slightly higher amounts. Hopefully 12z suite can narrow down specifics even more.

[tpweather]

Still like the 1-4" range for Fri/Sat Tim and Les have talked about at this early juncture , for most of CVGland, with possible higher amounts for Eastern Ky/Se Ohio. Our Se counties are still game for slightly higher amounts. Hopefully 12z suite can narrow down specifics even more.

With the way this winter has gone the most likely place to get the heavier snows would be Lexington since they are one of the few places with well above snowfall this season and of course much of that was with the one system where thet got around 10 inches lol . I believe the forecast is looking good so far and no reason to change and not sure what the record cold is for early Sunday but if there is snow on the ground I could see a few single digit lows. Btw just rained all night here and over the past 10 minutes starting to here thunder so my guess more heavier rain this morning.

[tron777]

Looks like ILN has lowered highs to around 50 now Tim. Wow... a far cry from 60+ just 3-4 days ago. So that's the first change we've been discussing. Second... Models continue to waffle back and forth from west to east or east to west with the track of the surface low. The timing of the phasing dictates its strength and track. With everything said, I have no changes either based on the overnight guidance. 1-4" still looks great. 1" NW to 4" in our SE. I see no reason to change that. That puts CVG around the 2" mark as I've said before. Still rolling with this call folks.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and I agree no reason to change the forecast. Many times March snow systems are rather easy to handle especially if they happen during the day. This is mainly an event where its dark and with falling temps roads should get rather slick especially as colder air continues to feed into the system. Of course by Sunday afternoon melting will happen rather quickly with the mid-March sun and by early next week back to spring time weather though the warmth may be a tad slower than models have shown.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim and this system has been showing up for a longtime on guidance as you know and it's been pretty rock solid in terms of storm evolution. Now it just comes down to timing issues that we hope to resolve somewhat today and tomorrow to lock this thing in!

[BookNerdCarp]

Snowing here in Georgetown
We have a light covering this morning.

[tron777]

Snowing here in Georgetown
We have a light covering this morning.

Awesome! Seeing a few mood flakes here, 37. About what I expected out of this little event. Now on to the main course!