March 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

I am already in severe weather mode - sorry to the snow weenies but once March comes around, it's time for the thunderstorm season to begin! CIPS long range is not disappointing with several severe episodes possible in the Miss Valley from day 6 onward.

I think it's going to be a rocky spring coming up as well.

[tron777]

12Z NAM trying to paint in some light wintry precip for the I-70 corridor on Thurs. This was that brief little dip in the jet BG talked about in the video and Doug was actually the first to mention it last week on our forum.

[Bgoney]

PV update, ho-humm , just another record breaking day in the life with one or two more expected in the coming days before a brief weakening in a week or so.

The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 53.4 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -10.6 m/s 1979
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 47.3 m/s 1997

[tron777]

Long Term still looks wet and active on the GFS. Nothing new to report after the quiet of this week.

[tpweather]

PV update, ho-humm , just another record breaking day in the life with one or two more expected in the coming days before a brief weakening in a week or so.

The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 53.4 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -10.6 m/s 1979
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 47.3 m/s 1997

This is probably been the biggest surprise this year and tell the folks in much of Europe about how bad this winter was. Very mild and snow was rare especially in western Europe. Only places that did well was in the northern regions of Norway,Sweden and Finland.

[tpweather]

The one thing I see in the extended is the wet weather may be a little further south as some colder air will try and move south. Sure this is the mjo causing some of the changes as it look to head straight into phase 4 and not stop but it did and returned to phase 3 and in the cod at the moment and moving. Where does the mjo go from here is a big key to the remainder of March. Will check out the Aussie site and never again pay any attention to the us model. What a horrible model and hardly gets anything correct.

[dce]

The one thing I see in the extended is the wet weather may be a little further south as some colder air will try and move south. Sure this is the mjo causing some of the changes as it look to head straight into phase 4 and not stop but it did and returned to phase 3 and in the cod at the moment and moving. Where does the mjo go from here is a big key to the remainder of March. Will check out the Aussie site and never again pay any attention to the us model. What a horrible model and hardly gets anything correct.

The Euro did the best over the last week or two in predicting the MJO hanging out in phase 3 and then barely touching phase 4 before heading to the circle of death. The GFS did fairly well earlier in January. The MJO is just plain tough for any model to forecast.

[MVWxObserver]

I like some rain and t-storms, just not a multi-day event. Need some dry mild time for outdoor things.

Currently 45 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

We are still in the neutral circle as of 2/26 per the Aussies. I think their calculations plot the MJO phase in real time correctly better then anyone else so I love using their data. I do agree from a modeling standpoint with both Tim and Doug. Tim is right, the Aussie model is the best for MJO prediction, but to Doug's point even that model failed earlier in the winter like the others. The MJO is plain tough as Doug said. It's the truth!

Would love to see that cooler air take the rain to the TN Valley instead of here so we'll wait and see. For now.. my early call is dry Sat, light rain Sat night into Sun. 0.25 or less. Rain likely Sun night and Mon perhaps, lingering into Tues. 1-2" expected. We'll start there and see what happens.

[tron777]

No weather going on right now but in case anyone noticed, ILN's radar is down for maintenance.

Code: Select all

NOUS61 KILN 281757
FTMILN
Message Date:  Feb 28 2022 17:57:13

KILN WILL BE DOWN FOR ROUTINE MAINTENANCE UNITL FURTHER NOTICE.

[Bgoney]

Still think the 850 wind anomalies are a good way to help in trying to figure the MJO. A couple weeks ago when mods showed eastward advancement into 4 and beyond , I kept waiting for the 850s to show a weakening of the easterlies but they never did, so eventually I finally realized eastward advancement wasn't going to happen. Very similar to when mods had it going full steam into 8/1 , while getting stuck in 7 , the easterlies stayed active and killed it then also.

[tron777]

Still think the 850 wind anomalies are a good way to help in trying to figure the MJO. A couple weeks ago when mods showed eastward advancement into 4 and beyond , I kept waiting for the 850s to show a weakening of the easterlies but they never did, so eventually I finally realized eastward advancement wasn't going to happen. Very similar to when mods had it going full steam into 8/1 , while getting stuck in 7 , the easterlies stayed active and killed it then also.

That is a great tool to use and probably the best for us. I don't know what calculations go into the Aussie's real time plot on their website but it wouldn't surprise me if they used it as well.

[tron777]

River Flood Warnings in Effect along the Ohio this week. The usual places impacted every spring, almost every year.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
835 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers...

Ohio River at Meldahl Dam.

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers...

Ohio River at Maysville.

Ohio River at Cincinnati.

Ohio River at Portsmouth.

[tron777]

1.58" of rain at CVG on the 18Z GFS for March 6-7th.

[Bgoney]

Easterlies over the past month have remained steady over/near a good chunk of the dateline eventually keeping MJO from advancing into pac , at least to any strength. We even see a slight strengthening of Nina 3.4 region because of the nonstop Easterlies

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

nino34.png

[tron777]

NAM continues to kind of be on its own island with a warm front trying to bring in a little mixed precip / light snow for I-70 Crew Thurs afternoon / evening. Dry everyone else. GFS and Euro keep all areas dry. Will keep it dry for now since there is really little support for this. Then we await the rain on Sunday into early next week for all locations. Still curious to see if we get clip 70 S of the River on Sat. Cloud cover dependent and isolated shower dependent as well.

[tron777]

40 here and at CVG this morning so quite a change from the past several frosty mornings we've had. Might even eclipse 60 today!

[cloudy72]

Dipped to 35 earlier but temps have been slowly rising now up to 41.

[tron777]

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/03/01/goode- ... update-31/

[tron777]

12Z NAM is still hell bent on a wintry mix / light snow for Thursday / Thurs night. QPF totals:

HAO - 0.02"
MGY - 0.08"
DAY - 0.10"
CMH - 0.09"

[tron777]

12Z RGEM gets the precip into Iowa and when it tries to enter ILL, the energy gets shredded. I suspect this is what the majority of the modeling keeps doing minus the NAM of course.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is really bad.... the energy never really even gets a chance to do anything.

[tron777]

Nice to see the GFS coming down to around 0.78" of rain for Sun / Mon now at CVG. Hopefully this is correct and a trend.

[tron777]

Looks like the Euro is also doing an RGEM for Thurs. You can see light precip breaking out but getting eaten away by dry air and the shearing out of the energy as it tries to push into ILL from Iowa. So again... not seeing much, if anything happening until Sat night or Sunday as far as any rain goes. Euro gets 2M Temps to around 69 on Sat so still shooting for our first 70 of 2022. Not ruling it out. It'll be close! QPF totals for Sunday into next week for CVG are much higher! Euro gives us 2.14"

[dce]

Looks like the Euro is also doing an RGEM for Thurs. You can see light precip breaking out but getting eaten away by dry air and the shearing out of the energy as it tries to push into ILL from Iowa. So again... not seeing much, if anything happening until Sat night or Sunday as far as any rain goes. Euro gets 2M Temps to around 69 on Sat so still shooting for our first 70 of 2022. Not ruling it out. It'll be close! QPF totals for Sunday into next week for CVG are much higher! Euro gives us 2.14"

How many times have we seen models underestimate warmth in these types of set-ups? More often than not, it seems. I would say low 70's are a good likelihood.