Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?

[tpweather]

Seeing more and more guidance bringing in 2" of rain for CVG to get things started tonight thru tomorrow night. Not good esp if wave 2 is more liquid versus frozen. Flooding is going to be a concern with this system in addition to the frozen side.

Les I agree there looks to be some 2 inch totals. The problem is it will not be everyone and if you get under a heavy rain for several hours I can even see close to 3 for those folks. Still going with 1-2 for most folks but will be a now cast of where the heavier rain sets up. Just wanted to add to the post and we are getting into the spring season and the LLJ at night can really helped in producing heavier precip. So the hours bewteen 4a-10a can be crucial in terms of the amounts over 2 inches

[tron777]

Seeing more and more guidance bringing in 2" of rain for CVG to get things started tonight thru tomorrow night. Not good esp if wave 2 is more liquid versus frozen. Flooding is going to be a concern with this system in addition to the frozen side.

Les I agree there looks to be some 2 inch totals. The problem is it will not be everyone and if you get under a heavy rain for several hours I can even see close to 3 for those folks. Still going with 1-2 for most folks but will be a now cast of where the heavier rain sets up. Just wanted to add to the post and we are getting into the spring season and the LLJ at night can really helped in producing heavier precip. So the hours bewteen 4a-10a can be crucial in terms of the amounts over 2 inches

We have quite the battle of airmasses this week which is going to promote a lot of precip. Totally agree Tim. This is a good post. We could see some 4" totals in some areas esp S of the river if you add up everything that falls for the week. Not good.

[dce]

The snowshield will not be nearly as big with this storm compared to the last storm, but a narrow band of heavier snow looks to set up somewhere across northern Indiana and Ohio.

[tron777]

NAM is probably the coldest model w/ surface temps. It does have frz rain for CVG Thurs morning's rush. Most models are like 32-34 degrees so probably no issues but the NAM is a bit colder around 29 or 30. that will make a difference if it indeed gets that cold. I am not buying it but the NAM is trying to sell it. More of a sleet risk for N burbs and I-70. Snow north of there. A small break, then the stronger wave moves in for Thurs .afternoon and night. Sleet north and frz rain to the south. Once you get south of Boone, Kenton and Campbell all rain so CVG is right on the fence. It's going to be close.

[tpweather]

Seeing more and more guidance bringing in 2" of rain for CVG to get things started tonight thru tomorrow night. Not good esp if wave 2 is more liquid versus frozen. Flooding is going to be a concern with this system in addition to the frozen side.

Les I agree there looks to be some 2 inch totals. The problem is it will not be everyone and if you get under a heavy rain for several hours I can even see close to 3 for those folks. Still going with 1-2 for most folks but will be a now cast of where the heavier rain sets up. Just wanted to add to the post and we are getting into the spring season and the LLJ at night can really helped in producing heavier precip. So the hours bewteen 4a-10a can be crucial in terms of the amounts over 2 inches

We have quite the battle of airmasses this week which is going to promote a lot of precip. Totally agree Tim. This is a good post. We could see some 4" totals in some areas esp S of the river if you add up everything that falls for the week. Not good.

Les not only are we getting the GOM moisture but some Atlantic moisture is trying to work in as well. Somebody could get 4 inches Les and the wildcard is the second system as it may not be the strongest in the world but it will have plenty of moisture to tap into. Last week models were trending the higher totals in the Tn Valley but that has shifted somewhat north and Kentucky could be in for one big mess. Also not talking to much about severe weather but if folks south of here get into a drier situation during the day Tuesday that could promote some strong and maybe severe weather.

[tron777]

I am still concerned for N Cincy burbs and I-70 Crew for impactful frz rain and sleet accumulations. Sleet / snow north of there primarily. Def some winter weather advisories in our future esp from the river... NW of I-71 corridor areas. Also could see more flooding headlines for folks across KY and our SE Counties.

[tpweather]

NAM is probably the coldest model w/ surface temps. It does have frz rain for CVG Thurs morning's rush. Most models are like 32-34 degrees so probably no issues but the NAM is a bit colder around 29 or 30. that will make a difference if it indeed gets that cold. I am not buying it but the NAM is trying to sell it. More of a sleet risk for N burbs and I-70. Snow north of there. A small break, then the stronger wave moves in for Thurs .afternoon and night. Sleet north and frz rain to the south. Once you get south of Boone, Kenton and Campbell all rain so CVG is right on the fence. It's going to be close.

The Nam has a strange look to it Les. Not sure of what to make of it and maybe the amount of time between the 1st and 2nd waves are causing some issues which again is something that could change the forecast somewhat before all is said and done.

[tron777]

15Z SREF precip type has the following:

CVG and HAO - Thurs AM: Frz rain
Thurs afternoon: Plain rain

MGY and DAY - Thurs AM: Sleet
Thurs afternoon: Frz Rain

CMH: Thurs AM: Sleet to frz rain
Thurs afternoon: Frz rain

[tron777]

NAM is probably the coldest model w/ surface temps. It does have frz rain for CVG Thurs morning's rush. Most models are like 32-34 degrees so probably no issues but the NAM is a bit colder around 29 or 30. that will make a difference if it indeed gets that cold. I am not buying it but the NAM is trying to sell it. More of a sleet risk for N burbs and I-70. Snow north of there. A small break, then the stronger wave moves in for Thurs .afternoon and night. Sleet north and frz rain to the south. Once you get south of Boone, Kenton and Campbell all rain so CVG is right on the fence. It's going to be close.

The Nam has a strange look to it Les. Not sure of what to make of it and maybe the amount of time between the 1st and 2nd waves are causing some issues which again is something that could change the forecast somewhat before all is said and done.

I think the NAM limits the WAA because as our low tracks up the Apps, it weakens and transfers to an East Coast Low off the Mid ATL Coast. That process begins at the end of the run. Not sure any other model is doing it that soon. GFS gets the low into Western PA then the transfer. So there's the difference. Something else to be factored in...

[tron777]

All the other models do the transfer later so there's the difference. for more wintry wx and less rain, you want the transfer to the East Coast low to begin sooner rather then later. That is going to be key. Otherwise the warm tongue of death will rule those of us to the south.

[tpweather]

The snowshield will not be nearly as big with this storm compared to the last storm, but a narrow band of heavier snow looks to set up somewhere across northern Indiana and Ohio.

This is a great post. Still not sure exactly where the heavy snow band will be but I agree a more narrow band and where this happens could see a foot of snow. I believe models are underestimating the problems with ice during this storm. Somebody and it may be Indy that gets hammered with ice as this second system has tons of moisture. Still watching the break between the 1st and 2nd wave on Thursday and I still believe we need to watch Thursday morning for some possible issues with frz/rain

[tron777]

18Z GFS coming in a tick south this evening. Bigger difference here vs 12Z run is the large arctic high is further SE as the moisture comes in early Thurs morning. CVG drops down to 30 Thurs morning w/frz rain on this run. Major ice event and some sleet to the north of that for folks N of River to I-70 Snow north of there. For CVG.. we do eventually changeover to rain but it's close.

[BookNerdCarp]

The river is creeping up here in Ripley. Any significant rain will only worsen it.

[tron777]

The river is creeping up here in Ripley. Any significant rain will only worsen it.

For Cincinnati

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... gage=ccno1

Already expected to crest at 49 feet on Thursday I am betting it will go higher. Keep a watchful eye my friend and stay safe!

[tron777]

Entire AFD from the boys - Active stretch ahead folks!

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Moisture advection continues to become established as sfc
dewpoints gradually trend upward and the lower parts of the
profile continue to saturate, as evidenced on satellite imagery by
the expansion of 5-8kft clouds N into the heart of the area
this afternoon. Will continue to see cloud cover thicken and
lower through the evening hours as the column becomes more
saturated, with perhaps a sprinkle or two possible this evening,
especially toward the Tri-State area where the deeper moisture
will arrive first.

The main item of interest will be the approach and overspreading
of an expanding area of SHRA with embedded TS after midnight.
This expanding solid area of SHRA will overspread pretty much
the entire ILN FA through the heart of the overnight, providing
an initial round of a third to half of an inch of rainfall. Some
elevated instby will accompany this isentropic-lift-driven
activity, so expect to see a few rumbles of thunder tonight.
While this initial band is not likely to cause hydro issues
itself due to its quick-moving nature, it will prime the
already-wet soils for the heavier/more widespread rates due to
overspread the area late morning through late afternoon.

Highs this afternoon have topped out in the low/mid 60s and will
be relatively slow to drop off this evening with the increasing
cloud cover and the steady southerly wind. Lows tonight bottom
out in the low/mid 50s area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Widespread SHRA with embedded TS will be ongoing by daybreak
Tuesday as the sfc wave translates east into the western OH Vly.
Will see the best LL convergence align initially to the west of
the ILN FA during the early morning hours Tuesday before that
better mass convergence translates east into the local area by
15z. This renewed steady/widespread/heavy SHRA activity will be
fed by ample moisture/mass convergence along the nose an
impressively strong H8/H9 LLJ nosing NE into the area during
this time frame.

H9 LLJ on the magnitude of 50+ kts, with an H8 LLJ closer to
60-65kts, will be coupled with strong, focused lift amidst an
amply- moist environment. Additional rainfall amounts from 15z-
21z across areas near/W of I-71 will likely be on the order of
an inch plus, depending on where any convective elements may set
up/train. While this would still be below 6-hr FFG, it presents
enough of a concern with the extremely wet antecedent conditions
for renewed flooding concerns, especially for area creeks,
streams, waterways, and in other low-lying spots. Felt confident
enough, given the continued trend in both deterministic and
ensemble guidance, to expand the Flood Watch a bit further north
to include more of the Miami Valley and parts of EC IN. GEFS
ensemble mean, for example, shows the heaviest axis of QPF
(exceeding 2 inches) nosing into parts of SE/EC IN and SW OH,
with enough positional variability and uncertainty to expand
the Flood Watch a bit further north. Although rainfall amounts
across WC OH will be more than was initially anticipated, the
good news is these areas did not receive /quite/ as much rain
with the system last week and may be in a better position to
handle even 1 to 1.5 inches over a 6 to 12 hour period.

As the better LLJ pivots away from the area by late afternoon
into early evening, the better convergence/lift/coverage of
activity will go with it. There will be the maintenance of some
mass convergence along a trailing boundary near/S of the OH Rvr
through the evening, as well as along the actual sfc front
itself, which will hang back to the west a bit. That being said,
conditions should generally trend drier past 00z for the local
area, with lingering SHRA/embedded TS lingering near/south of
the OH Rvr and perhaps a few ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA along the
eastward-advancing front itself into parts of WC OH between
00z-03z.

Although the severe risk appears to be quite low, on account of
very little in the way of sfc instby, a non-zero risk may align
into parts of northern KY mid afternoon into mid-evening as the
instby axis drifts E into NC/NE KY by 00z. Feel the potential
is low enough to as keep out of HWO for now, but will continue
to monitor trends in potential LL instby/favorable
thermodynamics.

Continued warm conditions are expected for Tuesday with highs in
the 60s across most locations. Winds will be breezy on Tuesday
with some wind gusts up to 30 to 35 MPH outside of convection
late morning into the afternoon as the strongest part of the LLJ
moves overhead, especially near/S of the I-71 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Precipitation appears to dissipate early Wednesday morning as the
center of low pressure will already be up near Maine around 12z. The
attached cold front will be draped just east of our CWA at this
time. Colder air will build in and allow temperatures to fall
through the mid to late morning hours before rebounding a few
degrees in the afternoon. Otherwise, expecting a primarily dry
forecast on Wednesday before the next system moves in Wed night.

Models have displayed a fairly consistent signal with an initial
wave of light pcpn moving through the Ohio Valley Wed night into
Thurs morning, leading to some mixed precip near the OH River and
potentially up near the I-71 corridor. The overall QPF will be light
with this wave, but wherever freezing rain develops, the lighter
QPF and time of day will aid in ice accretion potential. Even though
the current forecast favors only a few hundredths of an inch of
ice accumulation during this period, slick spots will still be a
concern.

This first wave ejects to our northeast late Thurs morning and
offers a drier period through the late afternoon hours for most of
our CWA. As we progress into the evening, a stronger inversion
begins to build off the surface with increasing southwesterly flow
aloft. This will inevitably create a large swath of wintry-mix in
our CWA as we progress through Thursday night with the second wave.
The second wave begins to move into the Tristate around 00z Friday
(7 PM Thursday), with thermal profiles favoring rain for the
majority of counties southeast of I-71. The next several hours will
lead to colder air spilling into the lower levels from the
northwest, allowing for a gradual transition to sleet and freezing
rain along the I-71 corridor. Thermal profiles from models currently
seem to favor a larger swath of freezing rain compared to sleet, but
this trend will be something to monitor with future model runs. As
the night progresses, colder air continues to push southeast and
allows for a transition to frozen pcpn in our southeast. Once again,
highest snow totals will be favored in our extreme northwest
counties, with early indications showing about 2-4" expected. Snow
amounts rapidly decrease southeastward towards the I-71 corridor due
to the prolonged sleet/freezing rain potential, with very little
accumulating snow expected near/south of the OH River. As for flat
ice accumulation, ice amounts will generally be greatest near the I-
71 corridor down into portions of the lower Miami and Scioto
Valleys. Ice accumulations over a tenth of an inch will be possible
in these locations, but still quite a bit to iron out with this
mixed pcpn potential. This is all subject to change with future
model runs, but long-range models such as the GFS/Euro/GEM are
starting to come in line a bit more with each other over the last
several runs.

Some lingering snow on the back end of the system is possible
through midday Friday before pcpn tapers off. High pressure builds
in for the weekend and offers drier conditions with temperatures
trending below normal. A fairly consistent trend in global models
indicates that an amplified H5 trough will dig into the Ohio Valley
Sunday night and usher in an even colder air mass to start the next
work week.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and what a wonderful day. The more you look at the set up for later this week somebody nearby is going to get slammed with frz/rain.Not sure how far from CVG but besides the morning frz/rain which will be light I expect the late Thursday afternoon through early Friday needs to be watched carefully. I expect ice storm warnings once again but exact location tbd.

[MVWxObserver]

I plan to roll out my trash cart early to mid Thurs afternoon during the lull.

[Trevor]

Up to get ready for an early shift today. Was drinking my coffee on the front porch and saw some pops of lightning and hearing some thunder

[Trevor]

06z HRRR hot off the presses shows a wet day ahead, but keeps the heaviest (flood-producing) rains to our south which is good news.

[Bgoney]

Yes sir , some window rattling thunder this morning. Hanging with the 1-2" for most of AVland, with the higher amounts just to our south. Not much change for thurs/fri event. Pre-dawn light frozen precip for thursday morning. Our 3 to 4 days of above freezing temps should keep things from getting out of hand on the roads except of course elevated surfaces for morning commute. Round 2 still looks the same also , Freezing rain changing to rain south of river with .10" or less of ice. North of river up to I70 , sleet /freezing rain combo and possibly changing to rain for some , a bit early and expect changes, for to much specifics in this sector but atm .10 to .25+" FRZR is possible in this corridor with an inch or so of sleet/snow near I70

[tron777]

I agree with the above... just not seeing major issues for CVG and the Metro. Further to the north a different story as mentioned but for Cincy and points south and east, a few minor issues Thurs and Fri mornings possible but otherwise, mainly a cold rain in my opinion as well. We'll see if anything changes but that's my call too. I think some icing is possible in N Cincy burbs to I-70. Then sleet and snow north of there. That has been my call for a while.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and had a little hail last night but lasted maybe 3 minutes. I agree with the two posts above. Early Thursday morning still need to watch for a few hours. This system has a lot of warm air in the upper layers and the area that gets snow is getting smaller and smaller. Still believe Indy is in the best spot for plenty of icing though recent trends seem to have got them a tad warmer as well but with cold air coming in as the storm passes I believe they will get hit hardest with this system. The system only wants to send higher precip totals so far north and this tells me the high to the north and west is trying to push southward. Btw a nice heavy rain shower as I type and seems very spring like.

[tron777]

1004 MB low headed towards Chicago today will drag a cold front thru here tonight. Where does it stall? Then we get a weak wave for Thurs morning and a stronger one early Friday. These are the features we are watching. We'll need to monitor soundings and SPC Meso page as well.

[tpweather]

1004 MB low headed towards Chicago today will drag a cold front thru here tonight. Where does it stall? Then we get a weak wave for Thurs morning and a stronger one early Friday. These are the features we are watching. We'll need to monitor soundings and SPC Meso page as well.

Nice and sweet post Les. Plenty of frz/rain or drizzle out in Iowa as temps drop quickly and yes they had a few days of milder weather. Just not sure how cold we get overnight Wednesday. Folks who get in the upper 20's have a better shot of the frz/drz but at CVG do we get that cold or stay in that 30-32 range. My gut tells me on Thursday we are 36 and rain most of the day while Indy is 28 with frz/rain. I will take the 36 and rain everytime.

[tron777]

1004 MB low headed towards Chicago today will drag a cold front thru here tonight. Where does it stall? Then we get a weak wave for Thurs morning and a stronger one early Friday. These are the features we are watching. We'll need to monitor soundings and SPC Meso page as well.

Nice and sweet post Les. Plenty of frz/rain or drizzle out in Iowa as temps drop quickly and yes they had a few days of milder weather. Just not sure how cold we get overnight Wednesday. Folks who get in the upper 20's have a better shot of the frz/drz but at CVG do we get that cold or stay in that 30-32 range. My gut tells me on Thursday we are 36 and rain most of the day while Indy is 28 with frz/rain. I will take the 36 and rain everytime.

I can see 31 at CVG Thurs morning but no major problems minus elevated surfaces, cars, porches that kind of thing. Minor issues. I am not sold on Fri morning yet. Could be all rain as some guidance suggests then end as a touch of snow then it's over.