Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[young pup]

0z cmc sleet ice.png

Looking like a sleet/ice fest on the cmc too.

[Bgoney]

Rise and shine, overnight mods sticking to their guns, Eu , faster , deeper with the arctic cold front and more snow since the low will travel more south along the boundary, while GFS a bit slower , shallower with the cold and more ice/sleet than snow across CVGland since the low will travel more north into KY along the boundary. Position of Arctic high to the north and strength of low are big factors in the differences

[tron777]

0Z Euro is the continued preferred solution for snow lovers. Rain on Wed then we change to snow after 1am Wed night and snow all day Thursday. Around 0.70" falls as snow with falling temps thru the 20s. As mentioned... GFS and CMC are no bueno with the ice that is for sure. I'd prefer to keep my power on, thank you.

Currently... I am seeing rain for most folks Wed then we'll have to wait and see the position of the incoming arctic high and track of second low. Wed night and / or Thurs should present some kind of fun.

[tron777]

6Z GEFS members continue to show the uncertainty. Image below is valid for early Thurs afternoon. You can see rain is still a risk on Thurs with the more amp'ed up solutions. Mix or ice on some members, as well as heavy snow too. 6Z Euro also seemed to bump north a tad at 90 hours vs 0Z. So models continue to bounce around with regards to track and strength which of course determines the precip type.

GEFSPType.png

[mikeyp]

Still to soon to tell but someone in the tri state (in my opinion) is going to have a significant icing event

[Trevor]

The 00z GFS is essentially a worst case scenario impact-wise for the metro with a crippling ice storm. Verbatim, that solution would lead to tons of downed trees and power outages (some lasting longer than a week).

Time to grab a coffee and I shall return to discuss more.

Edit: the GFS has trended colder on all runs yesterday through last night.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and I believe this forum will be busy in the coming days. My guess is a few more days until models are nearing the same outcome. Several factors involved and two of those are high pressures. We know the one coming out of Canada is going to be strong which normally allows the cold to move rather quickly. The second high is one over the southeast and though not there at the moment heights will rise Tuesday and Wednesday and will this high get strong enough and far enough north and west to put up some fight. Then we have the boundary with probably 2 or 3 waves of low pressure moving in between. Wednesday looks to be all rain and that is really the easy part of the forecast locally. Ice and that is a major concern and one thing to get frz/rain at 30 or 31 degrees but having rain falling and temps in the mid-upper 20's and this is not a good outcome. So with all that mentioned I believe we do have winter weather involved but to what extent is just way to early. Models will still go back and forth over the next couple of days and my guess 1 run milder and the next colder. Which model performs better with this type of set up and I really don't have a clue. With the milder temps Tuesday and Wednesday there will be melting snow as well so this adds to the problem and though I don't see flooding as a whole but again low lying areas and your normal streets that have drainage issues.

[Trevor]

Still to soon to tell but someone in the tri state (in my opinion) is going to have a significant icing event

The risk is increasing for sure. Placement TBD but yes, I agree.

[Bgoney]

I can only imagine the absurd amounts of ice the SREFs and NAM are going to throw out

[Trevor]

As has already been said, the GFS is a worst-case scenario for impacts. The 00z Canadian (talking metro area specifically) is probably the best-case scenario; sleet fest. Would still cause plenty of travel issues, but we wouldn't be dealing with crippling freezing rain. Many outcomes are on the table of course. Having said all of that, it wouldn't surprise me if WFO's issue winter storm watches on the earlier side with this storm. ILN may even do it as early as some point tomorrow or tomorrow night.

[Trevor]

I can only imagine the absurd amounts of ice the SREFs and NAM are going to throw out

I was thinking the same thing going to be some clown maps for sure.

[Trevor]

00z Euro continues to be the coldest of the models, and also a best-case scenario since we don't see much in the way of ice. Widespread heavy accumulations of snow. I am a skeptical of this model not showing much ice, but we'll see how future runs handle things.

[tron777]

I'm starting to use the COD site now more too. They have added precip for 6Z and 18Z Euro

[Trevor]

I'm starting to use the COD site now more too. They have added precip for 6Z and 18Z Euro

COD has been my go-to for years. Bgoney and I were chatting about that yesterday actually (re: Euro). Good stuff! Best free model website IMO.

[tron777]

I'm starting to use the COD site now more too. They have added precip for 6Z and 18Z Euro

COD has been my go-to for years. Bgoney and I were chatting about that yesterday actually (re: Euro). Good stuff! Best free model website IMO.

I still carry Accu Wx Pro for the text data. To me that is invaluable info and it's the only site you can get it still to my knowledge. But for free, it's great! TT and Pivotal are in competition so it's a weenies dream now having all of this info. Sometimes, I wonder... do we have too much info these days?

[Trevor]

I'm starting to use the COD site now more too. They have added precip for 6Z and 18Z Euro

COD has been my go-to for years. Bgoney and I were chatting about that yesterday actually (re: Euro). Good stuff! Best free model website IMO.

I still carry Accu Wx Pro for the text data. To me that is invaluable info and it's the only site you can get it still to my knowledge. But for free, it's great! TT and Pivotal are in competition so it's a weenies dream now having all of this info. Sometimes, I wonder... do we have too much info these days?

Def glad you held onto Pro over the years. Text data is very helpful!

[tron777]

I'm starting to use the COD site now more too. They have added precip for 6Z and 18Z Euro

COD has been my go-to for years. Bgoney and I were chatting about that yesterday actually (re: Euro). Good stuff! Best free model website IMO.

I still carry Accu Wx Pro for the text data. To me that is invaluable info and it's the only site you can get it still to my knowledge. But for free, it's great! TT and Pivotal are in competition so it's a weenies dream now having all of this info. Sometimes, I wonder... do we have too much info these days?

Def glad you held onto Pro over the years. Text data is very helpful!

Esp with kitchen sink systems!

[tron777]

A nice discussion from the boys on the beginnings of the forecasting process for this storm:


As the large-scale pattern continues to amplify going into the
middle of the week, a more significant period of active weather is
expected to develop across the eastern half of the CONUS. At this
point, there is general agreement in the large-scale features across
the last several GFS/ECMWF/CMC runs. The deepening trough upstream
of the region will gradually move east, providing broad support for
lift in the right entrance region of an upper jet, as moisture
streams into the region from the south. At the surface, a sharp
frontal zone is expected to develop, between high pressure off the
southeast coast and an even stronger high moving south from the
Canadian Prairie provinces. The end result will be a lengthy period
of precipitation that will overspread a large swath of the region,
with a surface front somewhere in the vicinity underneath the upper
support. Although there are some timing differences amongst the
models, for the ILN CWA, right now this appears most likely to occur
during the Wednesday through Thursday night time frame. This
represents a very slightly slower progression than in the previous
one or two forecast cycles.

At this point in the forecast process -- for a system likely to
impact the area out on Day 4 through Day 5 -- getting into too many
specifics would be difficult. However, this meteorological setup is
one that may support an array of hazardous weather across the Ohio
Valley and Midwest -- with high confidence in a lengthy period of
precipitation, but low confidence in particular locations for
different precipitation types and amounts. What should be noted is
that this overall setup, from a pattern recognition standpoint (and
supported by CIPS Analog guidance) is one that can support moderate
to heavy swaths of rain, freezing rain / ice, and snow. Here is an
example, to make an illustration of the challenges in forecasting
the location of these swaths. There is certainly an expectation of a
swath of heavy snow with this system, running on a WSW-to-ENE axis.
Various members of the 00Z GFS Ensemble suggest that the latitudinal
position of this axis could be anywhere from Milwaukee to
Cincinnati. This represents a wide degree of uncertainty, and one
that will require several more model cycles to even begin to narrow
down. With all of that said, at this time, the overall glut of
ensemble guidance suggests that Wednesday will be warmer for the ILN
CWA (favoring rain in most locations) and Thursday will be colder
(favoring a potential mix of precipitation types). While there is no
guarantee the worst of the weather will occur in the ILN CWA, there
does appear to be the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation somewhere in the region, and possibly to a significant
degree.

Though models differ with the timing of the exit of this system, as
is understandable, it does look like an area of high pressure will
be moving in behind it. This high will likely bring dry weather for
later Friday and into Saturday. It may also bring very cold
conditions, especially for any locations with snow on the ground.

[Trevor]

I'm starting to use the COD site now more too. They have added precip for 6Z and 18Z Euro

COD has been my go-to for years. Bgoney and I were chatting about that yesterday actually (re: Euro). Good stuff! Best free model website IMO.

I still carry Accu Wx Pro for the text data. To me that is invaluable info and it's the only site you can get it still to my knowledge. But for free, it's great! TT and Pivotal are in competition so it's a weenies dream now having all of this info. Sometimes, I wonder... do we have too much info these days?

Def glad you held onto Pro over the years. Text data is very helpful!

Esp with kitchen sink systems!

[tpweather]

Concerning frz/rain and we all know this on here but its not only the temperature that matters but the rate of rainfall. If the rain is to heavy even with temps below 32 the rain does not freeze as quickly on road surfaces. Getting the light to maybe moderate rainfall is one that really can cause problems. Sleet is snows ugly cousin and though its rare compared to what models like to show when the ugly cousin shows up it can be good because it cuts down of the frz/rain but its bad if you love snow because it can really cut into the totals because when the sleet is falling its usually at the time when precip is coming down rather heavy.

[tron777]

Like we mentioned yesterday, no more pingers! And with the arctic air pouring in behind this system, whatever we do get will turn into a glacier unless you remove it quickly.

[Trevor]

Concerning frz/rain and we all know this on here but its not only the temperature that matters but the rate of rainfall. If the rain is to heavy even with temps below 32 the rain does not freeze as quickly on road surfaces. Getting the light to maybe moderate rainfall is one that really can cause problems. Sleet is snows ugly cousin and though its rare compared to what models like to show when the ugly cousin shows up it can be good because it cuts down of the frz/rain but its bad if you love snow because it can really cut into the totals because when the sleet is falling its usually at the time when precip is coming down rather heavy.

Good point re: ZR rates vs accretion. The heavier the better in that case for sure.

[Trevor]

Like we mentioned yesterday, no more pingers! And with the arctic air pouring in behind this system, whatever we do get will turn into a glacier unless you remove it quickly.

Pretty much. Yeah I think we all got our fair share of sleet last February

[Bgoney]

00z Euro continues to be the coldest of the models, and also a best-case scenario since we don't see much in the way of ice. Widespread heavy accumulations of snow. I am a skeptical of this model not showing much ice, but we'll see how future runs handle things.

Agree , i dont see that wide of a snow shield from this setup, atm . If Indy gets heavy snow , it sure as heck wont be heavy snow in central Kentucky

[mainevilleweather]

Can we really buy the Euro? Seems like it brings the cold way further south than the rest of the models.