February 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

18Z GFS has the 2 low idea back. So close to a hit on Thurs. Snow over Indiana, NW of Cincinnati.

[mainevilleweather]

18Z GFS has the 2 low idea back. So close to a hit on Thurs. Snow over Indiana, NW of Cincinnati.

That's a start!

[tpweather]

This section is going to be very busy in the coming days. Yesterday we talked about chances of having just 1 low come through or maybe 2 or 3. Will talk about that later but the one thing that caught my eye was the strongest high of the season dropping down into the USA. I believe I saw 1058 on one map. If that is true we are probably talking about the coldest shot of the year once it arrives. Much more on the pattern change and lets see if this can finally get us into the winter weather many of the folks enjoy.

[tron777]

A very cold and wintry pattern looks to continue for early Feb. Yes we warm to the 40s and 50s early next week but it is short lived. As Bgoney mentioned in the Jan thread, the look for next week is slowly getting colder. Rain / snow line for Wed's low is not far from us at all. Still a cold rain, but ice and snow are lurking. We all change to snow on Thurs per 0Z GFS and the 6Z run develops the second low too and up's the wintry threat on Thurs per the 2 low idea.

The OP Euro has a major OV winter storm with the rain / snow line S of I-70, almost to the river. That is a hair away from a monster winter storm for everyone on that run. Wow! If that arctic high is real and almost to 1050 MB, high 1040s, we can do this folks! The CMC is the warmest model not playing ball. Has a cutter for Low #1.

Ensemble support? Yes. GEFS are a mix of rainy and wintry solutions still, which you would expect this far away. That was a major jump for the Euro though. It has been showing rain with both lows. Now it's the coldest of the bunch. EPS is also supportive, showing a gradient pattern and a much more amplified look. Very interesting...

[tron777]

Probably too early to post text data cause you know it will change, but here is the Euro for CVG. A cold rain, ice / sleet then snow. So close to a nice one!

Code: Select all

TUE 18Z 01-FEB   6.2     3.5    1019      89     101    0.07     561     545    
WED 00Z 02-FEB   3.0     1.5    1021      99      99    0.13     561     543    
WED 06Z 02-FEB   1.2    -0.7    1024      96     100    0.21     561     541    
WED 12Z 02-FEB  -1.0    -1.4    1025      92     100    0.30     560     540    
WED 18Z 02-FEB  -0.2    -0.9    1022      91     100    0.33     558     541    
THU 00Z 03-FEB  -0.5     1.6    1017      94      99    0.34     558     544    
THU 06Z 03-FEB  -0.5     3.9    1014      93      96    0.28     556     545    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -2.1     3.4    1013      90      68    0.11     554     543    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -4.4     1.2    1009      85      96    0.26     548     541    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -9.7   -11.3    1016      82     100    0.39     540     527    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -12.0   -14.6    1026      80      89    0.06     535     515 

Snow, sleet, and frz rain for Dayton. What a mess there if correct.

Code: Select all

TUE 18Z 01-FEB   6.5     3.4    1018      83      96    0.02     559     544    
WED 00Z 02-FEB   3.4     0.9    1021      97      92    0.16     559     542    
WED 06Z 02-FEB   0.0    -2.1    1025      85     100    0.03     559     539    
WED 12Z 02-FEB  -2.3    -3.5    1027      91      99    0.19     558     537    
WED 18Z 02-FEB  -2.2    -3.3    1024      90     100    0.25     557     538    
THU 00Z 03-FEB  -3.0    -1.0    1020      92     100    0.32     556     541    
THU 06Z 03-FEB  -2.9     1.2    1016      93      97    0.22     555     543    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -4.4     1.3    1015      90      91    0.11     553     541    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -7.0    -0.4    1012      88      98    0.16     548     539    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -11.0   -10.2    1014      86     101    0.45     539     529    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -13.3   -13.9    1025      80      91    0.08     533     515 

This is not fantasy range anymore. Days 5-6 range. Can we all get rain only? Sure, but let's see today and over the weekend if that arctic high plays more of a role. If so, we gonna have some fun next week on here.

[tpweather]

I know every month is noted for something but I believe from this moment on that February is Snow in the Ohio Valley month.

[tron777]

I know every month is noted for something but I believe from this moment on that February is Snow in the Ohio Valley month.

Sounds good to me Tim! Snowbruary

[Bgoney]

EPS for the OV really sent the probabilities higher for everything, icing event , to big snows, Lexington to Indy corridor is going to be a forecast headache for sure

[tpweather]

EPS for the OV really sent the probabilities higher for everything, icing event , to big snows, Lexington to Indy corridor is going to be a forecast headache for sure

I am ready for the headache. Going to be many changes on the models over the next few days. I have my advil ready and loaded though.

[tron777]

EPS for the OV really sent the probabilities higher for everything, icing event , to big snows, Lexington to Indy corridor is going to be a forecast headache for sure

I am ready for the headache. Going to be many changes on the models over the next few days. I have my advil ready and loaded though.

Gents... if that arctic high scenario is real from the Euro and EPS overnight runs, then all modes of precip are on the table for sure. We've got 2-3 days of monitoring the trends before we can lock this one down a bit more.

[tpweather]

EPS for the OV really sent the probabilities higher for everything, icing event , to big snows, Lexington to Indy corridor is going to be a forecast headache for sure

I am ready for the headache. Going to be many changes on the models over the next few days. I have my advil ready and loaded though.

Gents... if that arctic high scenario is real from the Euro and EPS overnight runs, then all modes of precip are on the table for sure. We've got 2-3 days of monitoring the trends before we can lock this one down a bit more.

Les you can already see where western and central Canada has a quick warm up this weekend but turns very cold just as quickly. How far southeast will that cold make it here next week. Still believe we have the warm up at first but nothing like models showed the past couple of days.

[tron777]

EPS for the OV really sent the probabilities higher for everything, icing event , to big snows, Lexington to Indy corridor is going to be a forecast headache for sure

I am ready for the headache. Going to be many changes on the models over the next few days. I have my advil ready and loaded though.

Gents... if that arctic high scenario is real from the Euro and EPS overnight runs, then all modes of precip are on the table for sure. We've got 2-3 days of monitoring the trends before we can lock this one down a bit more.

Les you can already see where western and central Canada has a quick warm up this weekend but turns very cold just as quickly. How far southeast will that cold make it here next week. Still believe we have the warm up at first but nothing like models showed the past couple of days.

I can still see one day of the 50s on Tuesday ahead of this thing, but otherwise 40s and if the Euro is right, the 30s. (Talking on Wed) Falling temps on Thursday.

[Spacejunk]

Les, if you get the opportunity could you please post the euro text data for HAO?

[tron777]

Les, if you get the opportunity could you please post the euro text data for HAO?

Code: Select all

TUE 18Z 01-FEB   6.3     3.4    1018      88      99    0.05     560     545    
WED 00Z 02-FEB   3.0     1.2    1021      98      98    0.23     560     543    
WED 06Z 02-FEB   0.9    -1.7    1025      87     100    0.09     560     541    
WED 12Z 02-FEB  -1.3    -2.4    1026      90     100    0.24     559     539    
WED 18Z 02-FEB  -0.7    -2.0    1023      89     100    0.28     558     540    
THU 00Z 03-FEB  -1.6     0.4    1018      93      99    0.32     557     543    
THU 06Z 03-FEB  -1.4     2.9    1015      91      99    0.21     556     544    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -2.9     2.6    1014      89      72    0.10     553     542    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.6     0.4    1010      86      96    0.22     548     540    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -10.1   -11.0    1016      81     101    0.42     539     527    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -12.3   -14.4    1026      79      89    0.07     534     515  

[Spacejunk]

Les, if you get the opportunity could you please post the euro text data for HAO?

Code: Select all

TUE 18Z 01-FEB   6.3     3.4    1018      88      99    0.05     560     545    
WED 00Z 02-FEB   3.0     1.2    1021      98      98    0.23     560     543    
WED 06Z 02-FEB   0.9    -1.7    1025      87     100    0.09     560     541    
WED 12Z 02-FEB  -1.3    -2.4    1026      90     100    0.24     559     539    
WED 18Z 02-FEB  -0.7    -2.0    1023      89     100    0.28     558     540    
THU 00Z 03-FEB  -1.6     0.4    1018      93      99    0.32     557     543    
THU 06Z 03-FEB  -1.4     2.9    1015      91      99    0.21     556     544    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -2.9     2.6    1014      89      72    0.10     553     542    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.6     0.4    1010      86      96    0.22     548     540    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -10.1   -11.0    1016      81     101    0.42     539     527    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -12.3   -14.4    1026      79      89    0.07     534     515  

Thank you.

If I am reading this right, rain, snow, freezing rain, snow?

[tron777]

Les, if you get the opportunity could you please post the euro text data for HAO?

Code: Select all

TUE 18Z 01-FEB   6.3     3.4    1018      88      99    0.05     560     545    
WED 00Z 02-FEB   3.0     1.2    1021      98      98    0.23     560     543    
WED 06Z 02-FEB   0.9    -1.7    1025      87     100    0.09     560     541    
WED 12Z 02-FEB  -1.3    -2.4    1026      90     100    0.24     559     539    
WED 18Z 02-FEB  -0.7    -2.0    1023      89     100    0.28     558     540    
THU 00Z 03-FEB  -1.6     0.4    1018      93      99    0.32     557     543    
THU 06Z 03-FEB  -1.4     2.9    1015      91      99    0.21     556     544    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -2.9     2.6    1014      89      72    0.10     553     542    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.6     0.4    1010      86      96    0.22     548     540    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -10.1   -11.0    1016      81     101    0.42     539     527    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -12.3   -14.4    1026      79      89    0.07     534     515  

Thank you.

If I am reading this right, rain, snow, freezing rain, snow?

Yep. Pretty much a kitchen sink event.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is not as cold as the Euro for next week but a tad colder then 6Z run. We'll take it. We do changeover to snow Thurs afternoon region wide.

[tpweather]

The gfs shows 2 waves with its latest run but again way to early as this will change quite often.

[tron777]

Overall pattern on the 12Z GFS is nice for wintry weather for the 1st half of Feb. All modes of precip type possible. Today's fun is a teaser to what is coming...

[tron777]

12Z CMC is a bit colder then 0Z tracking the low thru Central IN. Still warmest model.

[tron777]

12Z Euro coming in a little warmer. It is stronger on this run with the energy and an earlier phase. Need the trough to come in a bit more flat like it did on the 0Z run for a better chance of frozen precip next week.

[tpweather]

Les going to see several changes and really not until the big storm on the northeast coast moves away before models settle down imo. Most of the time with this set up you have at least 2 waves of low pressure. Is it possible to have 1 and sure its possible but usually not the outcome that we see with this set up.

[tron777]

Les going to see several changes and really not until the big storm on the northeast coast moves away before models settle down imo. Most of the time with this set up you have at least 2 waves of low pressure. Is it possible to have 1 and sure its possible but usually not the outcome that we see with this set up.

I think we need the two low idea in order to succeed. One low idea is going to mean a stronger storm and it's all rain maybe ending as some flakes. Two low idea gives the colder air time to return for that second piece to work with.

[tron777]

18Z GFS has rain Wed but it changes to ice / snow on Thurs with the second low. 0.75" cold sector precip

[Bgoney]

More and more GEFS members bringing on the FZR/Sleet scenario for late Wed into Thursday