February 2022 Weather Discussion

[mainevilleweather]

Let's be honest we know we are going to get rain and not 25 inches of snow haha.

That is a real possibility! Hoping for a 4-6" in this pattern. Trying to be realistic!

OH I would love it! But being realistic we are going to be right on the rain snow line and probably going to get some backside snow. That seems to almost always be the case for us.

[tron777]

12Z Euro still has the two low idea next week. Rain Wed night / Thurs then mix to snow Thurs night / Fri with the second low. Not a lot of cold sector precip or time for the second low to get going because a clipper is already dropping in hot on its heals. If it weren't for that kicker wave coming in, it would have been a better storm.

[Bgoney]

I think the 500mb picture the EU has is fine this far out , and not a lot needs to be done to turn it into the 6z GFS.

[tron777]

I think the 500mb picture the EU has is fine this far out , and not a lot needs to be done to turn it into the 6z GFS.

The two low idea can certainly work. That I think is the best chance for us to score in the 1st week of the new month.

[Bgoney]

sfct.us_ov (1).png

[tron777]

Need that set up 100 miles east of that depiction and it's money! Nice to see the 18Z run bring the two low idea back. I like that idea right now, just not sure if both are rainers or can we score on the second one?

[tron777]

I've been looking thru the GEFS members and they all like the two low idea, but are split on rain with both or rain with the first and mix / snow with the second.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another chilly one in store but less in the way of sunshine. Starting next week and no doubt looks like a pattern that we tend to see in late Nov and early Dec. No doubt we will get milder but that should bring in a good dose of rainfall. Then when the second low develops and it will then we look towards a better shot of snow late next week into the weekend. Models will do their normal stuff with a low forming one run and not the next. The problem is always in the Rockies as pieces of energy always makes it tough for the models to figure out. With the cold moving further southwest than it has all season this will no doubt develop a wonderful trough that is far enough west to help us get in on some snow. This upcoming pattern is a favorite of mine because we have the best chance for winter weather plus I love it since models always catch onto the pattern late in the game.

[Bgoney]

Hey Tim , rise and shine, agree even though the mods continue to show the rain to backside snow scenarios, the 500mb pattern the first 10 days of Feb is ripe for a chance at something more than a dusting. It won't be boring anyways, maybe disappointing but not boring

[tpweather]

Hey Tim , rise and shine, agree even though the mods continue to show the rain to backside snow scenarios, the 500mb pattern the first 10 days of Feb is ripe for a chance at something more than a dusting. It won't be boring anyways, maybe disappointing but not boring

Good Morning Bgoney, not boring at all. We know the backside snows very seldom work for us though with a decent amount of cold air just lurking to the northwest we can even cash in on that for a few inches if everything works out perfectly. No doubt it will be the second low that forms where we cash in and models stink at this setup. Many times it will finally catch onto a surface low in the gulf area but does a horrible job with the upper systems where we usually cash in. So I say between the 4th and 8th of Feb that we will end up with a decent amount of snow. Lucky that much of Canada has not warmed up much this winter so the amount of cold that is available is greater than normal. If we don't catch in the pattern setting up in the next 2 weeks then this winter was not meant for us locally.

[tron777]

Lots of stuff to keep an eye on to kick off Feb for sure. Rain then Rain to snow with the two low idea (GFS) Euro shows both of them to be rainers and some hvy rain at that. Then by next weekend... a southern snow storm tries to clip us. So we've got a lot on our plates here with more beyond this. high risk, high reward folks. There will be some heart break but hope to score a time or two as always.

[Trevor]

Hopefully you snow lovers can get ‘er done in Feb! Let’s do it. Then onto Spring and thunderstorms please!

[tron777]

Hopefully you snow lovers can get ‘er done in Feb! Let’s do it. Then onto Spring and thunderstorms please!

It wouldn't surprise me to see t-storms in Feb either Trev to be honest.

[Trevor]

Hopefully you snow lovers can get ‘er done in Feb! Let’s do it. Then onto Spring and thunderstorms please!

It wouldn't surprise me to see t-storms in Feb either Trev to be honest.

Good point. Feb can be a very fun month around here as the seasonal transition begins. Potential for big snow/ice, heavy rain, and thunderstorms.

[tron777]

Exactly! We've seen it all including below zero temps and 80 degrees! The first half of the month looks active with heavy precip events likely. Just hope it's more frozen versus liquid.

[BookNerdCarp]

I think we are due for an ice storm, even though no one wants that

[tron777]

I think we are due for an ice storm, even though no one wants that

After November of (2018 I think?) I've had enough of ice storms. But yeah, we are due for one again unfortunately.

[Trevor]

I think we are due for an ice storm, even though no one wants that

After November of (2018 I think?) I've had enough of ice storms. But yeah, we are due for one again unfortunately.

That was awful. Cracking/popping trees left and right. No accumulation on the roads but the damage (literally) was done. Weird storm.

[tron777]

I think we are due for an ice storm, even though no one wants that

After November of (2018 I think?) I've had enough of ice storms. But yeah, we are due for one again unfortunately.

That was awful. Cracking/popping trees left and right. No accumulation on the roads but the damage (literally) was done. Weird storm.

Any trees that had leaves still on them like oaks, were toast. My Brother and I cut up wood and took 4 trailer loads down to the creek and I had a fire going for a solid 24 hours. Luckily no roof damage since a few bigger branches came down on the house.

[tron777]

12Z GFS for next week shows the one low idea again (did the same thing on the overnight run) so mainly a rain event if this is correct next week. We don't yet know of course. It's going to be several more days before we can see exactly how this one will shake out.

[tpweather]

Looking at the gfs over the next 7-10 days. We are almost sure the first wave of low pressure will bring us rainfall. After that we have another wave on the front plus another system towards next weekend. The model fits the pattern which sometimes does not happen so my confidence goes up quite a bit in regards to winter weather.

[tron777]

Lots of unknowns... where does the boundary stall? Do we see two lows then a third for the weekend or just one low then another for the weekend? These are questions we will be answering next this weekend going into next week. Lots of action to track!

[tpweather]

Lots of unknowns... where does the boundary stall? Do we see two lows then a third for the weekend or just one low then another for the weekend? These are questions we will be answering next this weekend going into next week. Lots of action to track!

Les,just buckle up as we finally see the pattern that should deliver some nice winter weather. Two things is of course 500mb set up but we also have the large amount of cold in Canada because of the La Nina which delivered tons of snow for such a long time. Second is the GOM is really starting to open for business and really has been closed much of the season. All you need is pieces of energy to cross the country and the first one early next week is one already showing tons of wind energy and that is so important with winter storms. Looks like February will once again save us from having a horrible winter in terms of snow.

[tron777]

Lots of unknowns... where does the boundary stall? Do we see two lows then a third for the weekend or just one low then another for the weekend? These are questions we will be answering next this weekend going into next week. Lots of action to track!

Les,just buckle up as we finally see the pattern that should deliver some nice winter weather. Two things is of course 500mb set up but we also have the large amount of cold in Canada because of the La Nina which delivered tons of snow for such a long time. Second is the GOM is really starting to open for business and really has been closed much of the season. All you need is pieces of energy to cross the country and the first one early next week is one already showing tons of wind energy and that is so important with winter storms. Looks like February will once again save us from having a horrible winter in terms of snow.

All we can ask for Tim are shortwaves and shots of cold air. 12Z GFS and most models really, are chalk full of them. Just have to wait and see how things line up. We may very well end up with a nice Feb should things line up. If they don't then they don't. The pattern since early January has been pretty good. Our luck is what has been awful.

[tron777]

Late Tues - Thurs - a cold rain on the 12Z Euro. A shame the boundary sets up too far to the NW of us, which we knew was going to happen. Nice 1049 MB high too. It's always been slower then the GFS and showing a lot more rain too. 1-2" easily for the area.