January 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Gonna be a decent run me thinks esp for folks SE of I-71. Really close for CVG too. I am interested in this system if we can get these trends to continue.

[tron777]

If we can get that phasing going a wee bit faster then what the 18Z NAM shows, we'd have something to talk about.

18Z NAM QPF

CVG - 0.18"
DAY - 0.09"
CMH - 0.14"
FGX - 0.27"

[tron777]

Some of the biggest changes SOME models have shown, but not all, is too bring all energy out of the SW US for the southern stream wave. This is key. Any energy left behind is going to make for a weaker system. We want all of the energy and as strong of a system as we can get for the snow band to impact more AV posters and linger over the area longer as the developing Nor 'Easter takes over. So that's what I am looking for when it comes to Thurs night and Friday.

[tron777]

A quick mention from the boys:

Mid level short wave to dig southeast from the upper Mississippi
Valley Thursday night across the region Friday into Friday night.
This will allow a cold front to cross the area Thursday night/early
Friday. Light snow is expected to develop ahead of the front
Thursday evening. Model solution generally similar with best
coverage of snow over ILN/s southeast counties as the mid level trof
sharpens up. Have snow lingering into Friday afternoon with the mid
level trof moving through. Snow accumulations of an inch or less in
most locations with up to 2 inches possible over the east and
southeast counties.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM - Not as quick as the ?NAM was with the phase. It's a little later.

RGEM.png

[tron777]

18Z NAM which has the earlier phase getting started.

NAM.png

[Bgoney]

Probably a 2-4 hr difference when the earlyier phase happens on the EU/NAMP vs GFS

[tron777]

Probably a 2-4 hr difference when the earlyier phase happens on the EU/NAMP vs GFS

Yep and it makes all the difference in the world between seeing snow flurries / snow showers and actual accumulating snow esp SE Crew.

[tron777]

18Z GFS was a tick better then 12Z. Same general theme that we are looking for, just need more of it lol

GFS.png

[cloudy72]

18Z NAM which has the earlier phase getting started.

Interesting to see that little notch pointed towards my hood.....normally it's the opposite LOL

[tron777]

GFS ticked up from 0.07" at 12Z for CVG to 0.11" at 18Z. 0.19" on this run for FGX.

[tron777]

18Z NAM which has the earlier phase getting started.

Interesting to see that little notch pointed towards my hood.....normally it's the opposite LOL

It's another one of those right on the edge events. We've got to hope for an earlier phase. SE Crew is def in a good 1-2" per most guidance. I'd say dustings for the rest of us or 1" or less.... etc. is the way to go for now. If we are going to see any continued changes than tonight and tomorrow's runs should show it. Don't think we'll see radical shifts anymore just ticks. Just hope it keeps ticking in our direction. We've been down this road many times this winter so what the hell, here comes another one.

[tron777]

18Z Euro ticked back to the SE. 0.14" at CVG was the 12Z run. 18Z had 0.11" for QPF.

[tpweather]

Thursday itself gets somewhat milder ahead of the front. So you have some milder air meeting up with the arctic front. Again this looks like less than an inch for most folks and even a dusting for many as well. The cold dense air will win out and push the front rather quickly to the east so again nothing big for this event but just a little snow can make the roads very slick because of how cold the surface temps will be.

[tron777]

Thursday itself gets somewhat milder ahead of the front. So you have some milder air meeting up with the arctic front. Again this looks like less than an inch for most folks and even a dusting for many as well. The cold dense air will win out and push the front rather quickly to the east so again nothing big for this event but just a little snow can make the roads very slick because of how cold the surface temps will be.

I am leaning that way too. Covering for most. SE Crew I still think can muster 1 to possibly 2" if things break right. It won't take as much change for them to get a little something where we need a lot more changes here that we are simply not going to get. If I can get an inch I'll be happy. How many times do I have to keep posting that Tim?

[Spacejunk]

2.5 in Oxford at 0600 and still dropping

[mikeyp]

3.9 in whiteoak and still dropping.

[cloudy72]

3 here so far - imagine if we had calm wind and a deep snowpack?

[tron777]

5 here... agreed Mike, we would all be below zero. CVG got down to at least 6 so far.

[Bgoney]

EU fell hard to to GFS for late week and is following it for our First Feb event
, to a much more interesting outcome. See Feb thread

[tron777]

Good morning all! Well... the overnight models didn't do us any favors for the next system so I'll keep light snow in the forecast for Thurs evening thru Friday. Accumulations, if any, look to be light. Best chance for an inch plus will still be SE Crew. That's going to about do it for this month. We get cold one more time then start to moderate next week then Feb begins!

[airwolf76]

the overnight models trended east for the weekend storm. i may not see much snow from that. looks like a warm up next week but then back into the Freezer as we go deeper into Feb perhaps.

[Spacejunk]

2.0 at 0700. Snow pack would have dropped to higher negative single digits

[tron777]

the overnight models trended east for the weekend storm. i may not see much snow from that. looks like a warm up next week but then back into the Freezer as we go deeper into Feb perhaps.

Yeah... I may have to take out my 1"+ call for the SE counties in our area at this rate.

[Bgoney]

regtemp.PNG