Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22

[mainevilleweather]

Les,
How do you get the Kuchera maps on Pivotal Weather?

[mainevilleweather]

Nevermind I answered my own question haha.

[tron777]

Nevermind I answered my own question haha.

Good deal! Busy today after the Holiday as I expected to be so I won't be posting as much as I was able to do so yesterday.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS Mean - 10:1 Ratio:

GEFS.png

[tron777]

Team Canada:

TeamCanada.png

[tpweather]

Funny the gfs shows a little over an inch of snow later this week and weekend in Greenville while the euro is showing over 8 inches. I believe one is leaning towards ice

[tron777]

Funny the gfs shows a little over an inch of snow later this week and weekend in Greenville while the euro is showing over 8 inches. I believe one is leaning towards ice

GFS is stronger with our system for tomorrow evening where the Euro has been weaker. That's why the Euro is stronger with the weekend system and not the GFS. So our Wed evening wave does play a role with the track and strength of the weekend event for the SE CONUS.

[airwolf76]

calling for 2-4" for my hood with this cold front

[tpweather]

Funny the gfs shows a little over an inch of snow later this week and weekend in Greenville while the euro is showing over 8 inches. I believe one is leaning towards ice

GFS is stronger with our system for tomorrow evening where the Euro has been weaker. That's why the Euro is stronger with the weekend system and not the GFS. So our Wed evening wave does play a role with the track and strength of the weekend event for the SE CONUS.

Les I am playing the hot hand in terms of models and that is the Euro at the moment.

[tron777]

Euro refuses to change. It's the weakest and furthest south of any model I've seen. So it'll probably keep that weekend event alive for Greenville, Tim. So that means we get no snow at all and you're going with that for the Wed evening wave for us locally.

[tron777]

calling for 2-4" for my hood with this cold front

Good luck Charles! Sure hope that occurs for you after the last event concreated you.

[tpweather]

Euro refuses to change. It's the weakest and furthest south of any model I've seen. So it'll probably keep that weekend event alive for Greenville, Tim. So that means we get no snow at all and you're going with that for the Wed evening wave for us locally.

Les I believe the dense cold air may win out this time. My major concern has been more about the flash freeze than snowfall locally. Sure we can get 1/2 inch of snow or so locally and yes folks to the southeast I believe can get 1-2 inches. Matter of fact this cold air mass may be strong enough to keep the western Carolina's even drier this weekend. Sure must go over the mountains and we know that can slow things down but with snow cover really far south and east they may get a shot of ice and a little snow on Friday but could be just cold and dry for the weekend.

[tron777]

Euro refuses to change. It's the weakest and furthest south of any model I've seen. So it'll probably keep that weekend event alive for Greenville, Tim. So that means we get no snow at all and you're going with that for the Wed evening wave for us locally.

Les I believe the dense cold air may win out this time. My major concern has been more about the flash freeze than snowfall locally. Sure we can get 1/2 inch of snow or so locally and yes folks to the southeast I believe can get 1-2 inches. Matter of fact this cold air mass may be strong enough to keep the western Carolina's even drier this weekend. Sure must go over the mountains and we know that can slow things down but with snow cover really far south and east they may get a shot of ice and a little snow on Friday but could be just cold and dry for the weekend.

If the Euro's right, we get no rain or snow from this. Temps will drop and it'll just be cold. But I don't think the Euro is 100% right. We're going to see some moisture that gets squeezed out along the arctic front anyway. The deeper moisture will be to the south if you believe the Euro's solution.

[tpweather]

Les, I agree about the clippers and my guess with these cold air masses the STJ will sort of take a break later this week. I do believe though by later next week the STJ will come back in force and that is why I am really interested in late next week for a big storm somewhere in the eastern half of the country. Until then lets hope these clippers will just add a little more snow and keep the cold in tact.

[tron777]

Les, I agree about the clippers and my guess with these cold air masses the STJ will sort of take a break later this week. I do believe though by later next week the STJ will come back in force and that is why I am really interested in late next week for a big storm somewhere in the eastern half of the country. Until then lets hope these clippers will just add a little more snow and keep the cold in tact.

Next week is up in the air for sure, due to so much energy running around. As usual, it's about timing and getting anything to phase.

[tpweather]

Euro refuses to change. It's the weakest and furthest south of any model I've seen. So it'll probably keep that weekend event alive for Greenville, Tim. So that means we get no snow at all and you're going with that for the Wed evening wave for us locally.

Les I believe the dense cold air may win out this time. My major concern has been more about the flash freeze than snowfall locally. Sure we can get 1/2 inch of snow or so locally and yes folks to the southeast I believe can get 1-2 inches. Matter of fact this cold air mass may be strong enough to keep the western Carolina's even drier this weekend. Sure must go over the mountains and we know that can slow things down but with snow cover really far south and east they may get a shot of ice and a little snow on Friday but could be just cold and dry for the weekend.

If the Euro's right, we get no rain or snow from this. Temps will drop and it'll just be cold. But I don't think the Euro is 100% right. We're going to see some moisture that gets squeezed out along the arctic front anyway. The deeper moisture will be to the south if you believe the Euro's solution.

Again the Euro can be correct in one place and wrong in another. I believe the same that we get a little moisture from this but not going with the gfs with higher amounts. I agree the southeast should get hit later Thursday and Friday with moisture but not sure I believe with the higher snow totals though this airmass is cold and the snow on the ground is widespread down.With the downslope off the mountains you expect some colder temps but also to much can lead to some drier air. Again I have not followed that area much over the past couple of years because they have had little in the way of any winter weather. So this will give me a chance to see what happens in these situations.

[tron777]

I am going to post my final call for this system later on today.

[tron777]

15Z SREF plume jumped up... probably due to more weenie members. Here's the mean...

CVG - 2"
HAO - 1.3"
ILN - 2"
MGY- 1.2"
DAY - 0.8"
CMH - 1.3"

[tron777]

18Z HRRR gives CVG a dusting and anything noteworthy in that 1-2" range occurs over far South and East. I-64 corridor esp a couple rows of counties along and north of it, continue to come in on most models with the heaviest totals.

[BookNerdCarp]

CBS First Call

[Trevor]

Man areas south really are on a hot streak. Been that way for years now actually. Wild!

[tron777]

18Z NAM:

NAM.png

[tpweather]

Trev you are correct and the one area of the country that has been in a snow drought for years is the central plains. Here is my forecast and again my concern is more about the quick flash freeze than the snow totals. I will do the local I-275 area first and folks on the north and west side may see very little in the form of any precip. Cutting through the heart of Cincy and maybe an inch is possible especially folks in the eastern areas. Northern Kentucky I would go with an inch in most locations except towards the southern counties towards Dry Ridge and over to Maysville where I can see 1-3 inches come down in a short period. I know the ratios can go up in a hurry with a cold air mass like this but not sure how long it snows in any one area. If someone in Central Kentucky can stay snow for 4 hours or so then 4 or 5 inches possible but its all about timing.

[tron777]

Man areas south really are on a hot streak. Been that way for years now actually. Wild!

I-64 is kicking I-75 up here and I-70's ass!

[tron777]

Update from the boys:

A cold front will be near the northwestern bounds of the CWA at
daybreak Wednesday. This front will strengthen and rapidly cross
southeast through the region during the day. The increased
moisture ahead of the front will result in some widely scattered
light rain showers southeast of the I-71 corridor in the late
morning and early afternoon. The main focus of the low level
moisture convergence ahead of the cold front will occur over the
far southern reaches of the CWA as prevailing rainfall begins in
the afternoon along an Owenton-Maysville-Portsmouth line.

Real forecast challenge comes in when the moisture interacts
with the cold air that will have undercut the region behind the
cold front that passes in the early evening. Expect a rapid
change from rain to snow in the evening along the I-71 corridor,
rapidly shifting southeast before midnight for the remainder of
the forecast area. This rapid changeover in the presence of
abundant moisture will let accumulating snow of 1-3" fall along
the aforementioned line, with the highest amounts running from
Mt. Olivet to Camp Dix and southern Lewis County. Around an
inch is expected along the I-71 corridor, south of the Cincy
southern suburbs of NKY, through the Highland/Adams border and
east-northeast towards the southern reaches of Ross and Hocking
counties. A quarter to half inch is expected from Versailles to
Cincinnati to Wilmington, Chillicothe, and Nelsonville.

After morning highs in the northwest in the upper 30s, values
in the low to mid 40s will be found for the remainder of the
CWA. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the front will see
overnight lows drop into the teens.