January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion

[briceg09]

Current accumulation and type of precipitation falling

[Closet Meteorologist]

Snow/graupel in Lebanon for the last hour.

[tron777]

Nice graupel there Brice!

[sbpstudios]

Still very light snow at Rob Dyrdek/DC Shoes Skate Plaza in Kettering. There is a light dusting on the pavement here.

[allowat3]

We have a wintery mix here in Williamstown, Ky. It is a light snow/sleet mix that has made the road wet, but no issues.

[cincy bud]

Light snow in Somerville

[Ddmeyer004]

Given the WWA in Clermont and Clinton Counties there’s no way they don’t include Mason, Lebanon, Deerfield Township within that. Look at the county maps…..draw a line between western edge of Clermont and Clinton Counties and you take in above mentioned areas….

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
While the overall message, and expectation of impacts, has not
changed drastically with updates thus far today, there have
been several subtle adjustments to the overall fcst. The two
main adjustments were to increase fcst snow accumulation totals
in the far east, especially from Lewis Co KY to Licking Co OH.
Confidence has increased, per latest ensemble and CAM
probabilities, for snow totals within this corridor to approach
6 to 8 inches in a few spots. And while the expectation for
where the overall gradient will set up did not change /too much/
it did seem to have a slight westward shift from previous fcst
updates, meaning that locations a bit further west will see
slightly more snowfall than had previously been fcst. This
gradient will be /very/ tight and will likely orient itself
almost completely west-to-east as we get into this evening as
the band of pcpn pivots from its current SW-NE orientation to
more SSW to NNE.

The primary reasoning for the uptick in fcst snow totals (from
NE KY to cntrl OH) was a signal for a very robust TROWAL
nudging NW into parts of SC/C/E OH by this evening. This will
promote a narrow corridor of impressive H7 frontogenesis, which
is expected to pivot N through the heart of the evening hours.
This is likely to manifest itself in an axis of moderate to
heavy snowfall, with sufficient saturation in the far lower part
of the DGZ, with the potential for a narrow corridor of heavy
snow rates (1-2"/hr) between 23z-05z. This is well corroborated
by HREF snow band member probabilities with at least 0.1" hourly
liquid- equivalent as well as HREF ensemble mean hourly snow
rates. This gave us enough confidence to boost fcst snow totals
in these areas. These types of rates will overcome warm/treated
surfaces and allow for rapid accumulations and for snow-covered
roads to become fairly widespread for the heart of this evening
into early overnight for many spots in the warning. Travel in
these areas may become very difficult, and these challenging
travel conditions are likely to persist even after the snow
comes to an end, which may not occur in some spots until after 4
AM.

The gradient of highest snowfall totals was shifted west
slightly to come in-line with some of the most recent ensemble
and CAM ensemble data. Expect the snow, which may briefly mix
with sleet just about anywhere (especially this afternoon into
early evening) to continue to expand both in coverage and
intensity as we progress through the late afternoon and early
evening hours. The band of snow will begin to pivot early this
evening, with light snow continuing in parts of the Cincy metro
area as late as 8-9 PM. And the backside of this band will be
rather slow to make its way east, with snow continuing from
Madison Co OH to Robertson KY until potentially midnight. The
prolonged time of light snow gave enough confidence to nudge the
gradient west ever-so-slightly, especially as SLRs become
increasingly favorable toward the later evening hours. SLRs will
trend from about 8:1 area-wide late afternoon to closer to 10:1
by midnight and beyond.

Snow will taper from west to east from about 8 PM (near Tri-
State) to as late as 6 AM in central OH. In general, guidance
overshot temps for this afternoon by quite a bit, most-likely
owing to the thick canopy of mid/high level clouds which have
been overspreading the ILN FA from the south. So sfc temps are
generally in the lower 30s (near/below freezing). And with quite
a bit of dry air to overcome, especially considering the NE LL
winds which will continue to supply /some/ dry air into the
area, expect that wet-bulbing/evaporative cooling will allow for
temps to generally drop into the upper 20s/near 30 degrees for
most of the remainder of the afternoon for locations where it
precipitates. Temps will then generally fall into the upper 20s,
and eventually lower/mid 20s past midnight and toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Even though the primary surface low will have already exited the
region, additional snow accumulations will be possible again on
Monday as a H5 S/W trough swings through the ILN FA. Model
soundings show a period from near daybreak through the late
afternoon hours where steep low-level lapse rates, weak
instability and saturation near -10C will provide scattered
snow showers across most /if not all/ of the area during the
daytime period. Trended PoPs even higher and with higher SLRs
present on Monday with the colder, drier air mass building in,
it won`t take much liquid-equivalent precip to accumulate snow
to a few tenths of an inch. Wouldn`t be surprised if a few spots
pick up around a half an inch or so of additional snowfall,
which may create minor travel issues with the subfreezing
pavement temps. Additionally, gusty winds of 20-30 MPH may also
create some reduced visibilities where snow is occurring
(especially in heavier bursts of snow shower activity), and may
allow snow that has already fallen to drift back onto roadways.

The snow shower activity will wane very late in the day, but a
favorable fetch off of Lake Michigan, as well as some saturation
in the DGZ, will keep flurries probably going for locations
near/north of I-70 into the evening. Highs Monday will top out
around 30 degrees with that brisk WNW wind. We dry out Monday
night as temps dip into the teens and lower 20s. A few spots
with a healthy snowpack may dip into the lower teens.

[allowat3]

Unless we get some bands of snow later, I think we will be lucky to get an inch in Williamstown.

[BookNerdCarp]

Nothing here.

[mikeyp]

I like the long dry slot on radar hahahaha

[young pup]

Been seeing some on and off flurries.

[mikeyp]

D375BDFB-FBB4-43B1-8693-8D9542B1277B.jpeg

[Bgoney]

First part of event is going the way forecasted. Rain/sleet mix eating up precious qpf. Mix here for last 80 minutes. Hope the rest goes as planned

[tron777]

LOL @ Boone Co for dumping mass amounts of salt out on the neighborhood streets earlier wasting our tax dollars for not one flake of snow. Still stuck in between those 2 bands.

[dce]

I like the long dry slot on radar hahahaha

There is a lot of banding going on with this system. Looks to me like that is going to cause a few busts in the forecast if you're not under one of those bands. The radar has several heavier bands with light precip or a dry slot on either side of the heavier bands if you aren't fortunate enough to be under the heavier precip.

[MJSun]

Drove down from Akron after visiting my bestie, some flurries around Lebanon then rain again in Amelia

Hoping my heart isnt broken again by missing a good snow.

[Bgoney]

Hey Matt, Maybe these heavier returns headed your way can get you started with some snow

hv.PNG

[MJSun]

As said upthread- here is a perfect picture of what it's like to have winter in Cincinnati.

Screenshot_20220116-162039.png

[tron777]

As said upthread- here is a perfect picture of what it's like to have winter in Cincinnati. :lol:Screenshot_20220116-162039.png

My Dome has been holding up quite well.

[tron777]

Need to be in Athens for this one. MD for hvy snow issued for Eastern Ohio:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0080.html

[allowat3]

The sleet/snow/freezing rain (not much but enough) that we have received is freezing on concrete and asphalt, so the salt has come out to go out in the driveway.

[Bgoney]

40+ dbz band entering Brown county

[tron777]

It ought to be picking up for Matt here shortly.

[tron777]

The gap between the two bands is shrinking so I'll see something soon. Currently, some mist and 30 degrees, dew of 23.