January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion

[snowbo]

Hanging on every word of analysis Les.....please keep it coming! Thanks for all you do!!!

[Ddmeyer004]

NAM is going to be way south of what we've seen from the last Euro and HRRR runs. IT is much faster with this system. Slower I think is going to mean stronger with this system.

This thing is going to be interesting the way it plays out. Even looks like the warm tongue of death is growing more north. This will be one to watch for sure Les

[tron777]

Hanging on every word of analysis Les.....please keep it coming! Thanks for all you do!!!

Thank you Bo.. Don't know for sure what is going to happen but tomorrow will be an interesting day to see what happens.

[tron777]

NAM is coming in stronger then 18Z so precip shield should be a tick north on this run.

[tron777]

Upper low tracks along TN / GA boarder. Want it more north obviously, but this is a good shift north from earlier runs. By Sun evening, transfer beings. Snow / sleet / SE of I-71, dry NW of I-71. Kind of like HRRR just warmer profiles.

[Trevor]

On the warm side, the NAM continues to project a fairly potent squall-line traversing Florida…

Wind fields favorable for straight line wind damage, along with some spinners.

[tron777]

The kicker wave is already diving into N ILL. Man oh man I wanted that thing to get pulled in. I've posted on it for days. Just isn't going to happen but it got close! Dang! One thing I know in the trends, the more this slow down, the more snow we get.

[tron777]

oh my Lord...

[cloudy72]

NAM’ed

[tron777]

NAM’ed

Is it actually trying to phase that kicker wave in?

[Trevor]

00z NAM Snowfall (Kuchera)

[Ddmeyer004]

oh my Lord...

I’m afraid to ask Les…..when you say “oh my Lord” it’s never good…lol

[tron777]

Dave... the 18Z NAM had ZERO remember so quite a shift north. Can't wait to see what happens! Let's reel it in!

[Ddmeyer004]

Dave... the 18Z NAM had ZERO remember so quite a shift north. Can't wait to see what happens! Let's reel it in!

Told you I wasn’t believing any of the models…..gut said this had potential

[tron777]

It almost pulled off the phasing of the trailing kicker lol

NAM.jpg

[tron777]

Dave.. from what I am seeing on radar tonight, I am with you, this maybe a stronger system that some, not all, but some models are under playing. Want to see if we get anymore strong / north corrections in the data.

[tron777]

NAM looks awesome on Monday with a Lake Michigan Connection for several hours with that trailing short wave.

SUN 7P 16-JAN -0.3 -0.3 1006 77 96 0.02 546 541
MON 1A 17-JAN -1.7 -3.5 1001 87 95 0.29 537 536
MON 7A 17-JAN -4.4 -7.9 1002 86 87 0.01 527 525
MON 1P 17-JAN -2.1 -11.1 1005 72 89 0.04 528 524

That is for CVG. 0.30" for Sunday but 0.05" on Monday with the trailing s/w Need to watch this as Dave is mentioning. EDIT: Mon AM Rush - potential impact.

[tron777]

FGX - A sleet snow mix for the first half. Def warning criteria event for SE Crew if correct.

SUN 7P 16-JAN -0.5 -0.1 1005 95 92 0.35 546 542
MON 1A 17-JAN -1.0 -3.6 999 97 90 0.48 536 537
MON 7A 17-JAN -4.9 -7.6 1002 78 66 0.11 528 526
MON 1P 17-JAN -1.4 -11.4 1004 83 88 0.06 526 523
MON 7P 17-JAN -2.7 -11.5 1012 79 19 0.01 537 527

[tron777]

3KM NAM ending 7am Mon morning.

snku_acc.us_ov.png

[Trevor]

@Tim the NAM (and high res version) are going in our favor.

[young pup]

@Tim the NAM (and high res version) are going in our favor.

Hoping I got nam'd. LOL

[young pup]

First Canadian model.

0z rdps kuchera.png

[tron777]

Mainly good news from the overnight models....

CVG QPF

6Z NAM - 0.29" Sunday
0.03" Mon Trailing Wave

0Z GFS - 0.17" Sunday
0.04" - Trailing Wave

6Z GFS backed off again on both, just get clipped.

0Z Euro - 0.26" Sunday
0.03" Trailing Wave

6Z Run: Will be out soon

[Josh351m]

Driveway has a little coating here in Dillsboro

[tron777]

Good morning Josh... thanks for the report! This is the first piece working by to our West dropping to the south. The whole snow area trying to get in here is weakening so western forum areas have the best chance at a bit of snow this morning.