January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion

[mainevilleweather]

0z GFS a miss for Cincinnati and areas north and west. Looks like the NAM is our last hope or a 100 mile shift northwest!

[fyrfyter]

0z Euro still gives us about 2-3” across the area.

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[fyrfyter]

6z GFS gives us 0-1”

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[tpweather]

Good Morning and really not much changed in the overnight. The Euro has been the most consistent with this system and I will lean my forecast towards that model. Will keep my forecast as is and update if needed. Where is the cutoff from snow to no snow and it will be a sharp cutoff. My guess is about 30 miles west of Cincinnati at the moment. Still for the local I-275 area 1-2 inches northwest and 2-4 southeast and folks in Southeast Ohio and Northeast Kentucky I will go with 4-8 inches. Timing looks like the 12 hour period from around noon on Sunday until midnight though could have some leftover snow showers for everyone on Monday. Temps should be in that 28-32 range so snow removal on roads should be okay though we get rather cold later Saturday night so road temps will still be cold.

[Bgoney]

SO many ifs and maybe's involved in the forecast , just have to go with the old gut.

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[tpweather]

Bgoney, over the years the gut seems to work better than the models and I tend to go that way as well.

[Bgoney]

Bgoney, over the years the gut seems to work better than the models and I tend to go that way as well.

Boy , do I agree with that . These situations you have to think of how it turned out in past events similar, kind of my own analog in my head. Its a high bust forecast no matter what numbers one throws out. Just a couple hours difference in a transfer causes huge difference in outcome

[tron777]

Good morning all! It's going to be one of those cases where I'll be happy to get up to an inch again. If I break the 1" mark it is a #1 event this winter. For some of you, just seeing a quarter or a half inch beats it. It's been tough...

[tpweather]

Bgoney, over the years the gut seems to work better than the models and I tend to go that way as well.

Boy , do I agree with that . These situations you have to think of how it turned out in past events similar, kind of my own analog in my head. Its a high bust forecast no matter what numbers one throws out. Just a couple hours difference in a transfer causes huge difference in outcome

The reason I am going somewhat higher is because the transfer imo is not to a coastal storm. Going to be an inland storm so the low will pass probably a 100 miles closer going up east of the mountains than say a true coastal storm. I still believe late Saturday night or early Sunday we may see some snow get near us before the main show on Sunday. Sharp cutoff but that seems to be case with many systems and yes will be fun to see the snow coming from the east on the radar and far west it makes it before it stalls.

[tpweather]

Bgoney, over the years the gut seems to work better than the models and I tend to go that way as well.

Boy , do I agree with that . These situations you have to think of how it turned out in past events similar, kind of my own analog in my head. Its a high bust forecast no matter what numbers one throws out. Just a couple hours difference in a transfer causes huge difference in outcome

The reason I am going somewhat higher is because the transfer imo is not to a coastal storm. Going to be an inland storm so the low will pass probably a 100 miles closer going up east of the mountains than say a true coastal storm. I still believe late Saturday night or early Sunday we may see some snow get near us before the main show on Sunday. Sharp cutoff but that seems to be case with many systems and yes will be fun to see the snow coming from the east on the radar and how far west it makes it before it stalls.

[Trevor]

Going to maintain my 1-3” call for the metro, 3-6”+ for eastern areas. Most guidance supports ~1” or less for Cincy, but it’s close. Hence I’m going to just hold things for now. If you’re west of town, don’t expect much if anything. Amounts stair-step up as one goes east.

[Trevor]

Overall most of us who have issued forecasts for this are similar, just slightly different on placement and amounts. My thoughts match yours the closest, Tim.

[tpweather]

Overall most of us who have issued forecasts for this are similar, just slightly different on placement and amounts. My thoughts match yours the closest, Tim.

I agree Trev, we are really close and have been over the past few days. Les and Bgoney have the same thoughts but are probably about 30-50 miles east with some of the heavier amounts. Like Bgoney mentioned your brain short of has an analog itself and you tend to rely on that when making a forecast. Does it always work and of course not but neither do the models.

[Bgoney]

Bgoney, over the years the gut seems to work better than the models and I tend to go that way as well.

Boy , do I agree with that . These situations you have to think of how it turned out in past events similar, kind of my own analog in my head. Its a high bust forecast no matter what numbers one throws out. Just a couple hours difference in a transfer causes huge difference in outcome

The reason I am going somewhat higher is because the transfer imo is not to a coastal storm. Going to be an inland storm so the low will pass probably a 100 miles closer going up east of the mountains than say a true coastal storm. I still believe late Saturday night or early Sunday we may see some snow get near us before the main show on Sunday. Sharp cutoff but that seems to be case with many systems and yes will be fun to see the snow coming from the east on the radar and how far west it makes it before it stalls.

Solid reasoning, my slightly less amounts are due to the upper low being a bit further south and then east , which the models started doing yesterday

[tpweather]

Looking at the system in the northern plains and really the models handled this part rather nicely. Probably about 20 miles further east than models showed yesterday but really nothing out of whack.

[tron777]

That's my thinking.. we get clipped by this thing, possible get out the shovel for SE Crew like last time (just hope the amounts are better then last time lol) but really, it's a different system in terms of evolution, but the snow shield will behave the same way. Just a bigger storm to impact more people. Results locally, probably similar to the last one.

Maybe we'll get into a clipper pattern after this. We do get snow showers on Monday with the trailing shortwave that never could get phased into this thing to pull it west. That's the booby prize for us with this system.

[tron777]

Well Trev... we are 0 for 2 with the separate thread idea here. Of course before this thread was even started the SE shift was already underway.

[tron777]

Ocean low down to 996 MB. Our low over panhandle of OK 1006 MB.

[tpweather]

This system like most systems will have busts both high and low. I have seen this kind of storm give Adams county 10 inches while Dearborn country gets nothing. So yes this system most likely will have those kind of busts.

[tpweather]

No doubt there will be some bands of snow on Sunday that go northeast to southwest. If you get under a band for a few hours several inches can pile up in a hurry. These are usually more of a nowcast and maybe late Saturday some of the shorter term models will pick up those locations.

[BookNerdCarp]

Very low expectations here

[tpweather]

Very low expectations here

Matt,that is the way to go. I do like your area though for some or the higher totals.

[tron777]

Small chance for flurries tomorrow mainly far west as this thing drops to the south. It is entering the US from Canada today as it has crested above the top of the PNA ridge. WSW already out for N. Plains.

[Trevor]

Very low expectations here

Matt,that is the way to go. I do like your area though for some or the higher totals.

Agreed.

[BookNerdCarp]

So darn close....