New Year's Storm: Hvy Rain and Strong Storm Threats

[tron777]

Going to start a new thread for the next system due in Fri / Sat. Models showing 1-2" with iso 3" rains possible along with a marginal risk for severe wx. Discuss...

[tron777]

MargRisk.jpg

[tron777]

12Z EPS showing the heavy rain threat then flakes to end the event on Sunday.

EPS.gif

[tpweather]

Glad you have these threads Les. Very good for weather that is a little on the wild side or in this case wet side. I agree the best way to go is 1-2 inches but as we know most likely there will be an area that gets some training and 3 inch totals are possible. A decent cold front and probably the strongest to come through the area this season and that is good in stopping the rain from lasting too long but also may hinder snow chances. Sure we may see some light snow showers either with the cold air coming in and even a quick period where some lake effect snow but should be in short duration as the winds will turn rather quickly. I believe the key in the long term is the pna and just to get it near neutral can deliver some cold air and winter type precip. Another good thing is getting some snow cover down over the central plains.

[tron777]

Winds in excess of 40 mph in gusts are possible. Not yet sold on the severe threat. I think heavy rain is more of an issue. Then some mood flakes on Sunday as we await our new pattern. Hopefully it'll bring a couple of thread worthy events.

[tron777]

I don't see much change with this system. Rain gets going tomorrow esp tomorrow night and gets heavy overnight into the day on Sat. Still rolling with 1-2" of rain for most folks. Then some flakes on Sunday 1/2 as a small disturbance swings thru with falling temps. We'll see 60s Fri and Sat then fall into the 30s for Sunday.

[cloudy72]

Seems like it is never ending....New Year's Day

severe.png

[cloudy72]

Overnight NAM run for CVG at 7pm Saturday...

nam_2021123006_066_KCVG.png

[tron777]

SPC trimmed back the marg. risk to just our southern counties now... further south track of the low on some guidance. We'll see if the NAM continues to track the low NW of us or not.

[cloudy72]

If anything the 12z run of the NAM looks a bit further north with the instability on NYD.

[tron777]

If anything the 12z run of the NAM looks a bit further north with the instability on NYD.

Yeah... it's not backing down from the more amp'ed up solution. It is on its own right now unless other models cave in later. 500/600 J/KG of SB CAPE for most of the forum area.

[tron777]

12Z GFS still going with the SE track across Eastern KY. Still means rain but the severe threat is pretty much gone. Too bad the southern wave doesn't amp up quicker for 1/2. Might be a nice burst of snow for parts of KY outside of our coverage area if correct.

[tron777]

Including the 12Z Euro, a solid 1-2" of rain for the area on NYD. Models are locking in on a wet start to 2022.

[tron777]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
239 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

INZ080-KYZ089-090-094>100-310345-
/O.NEW.KILN.FA.A.0003.220101T0500Z-220102T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-
Mason-Lewis-
Including the cities of Tollesboro, Mount Olivet, Vevay, Owenton,
Brooksville, Vanceburg, Falmouth, Augusta, Williamstown, Carrollton,
Maysville, Butler, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, and Warsaw
239 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. Forecast
rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible starting late
Friday night through Saturday night.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana and Kentucky, including the
following counties, in Southeast Indiana, Switzerland. In
Kentucky, Bracken, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Lewis, Mason, Owen,
Pendleton and Robertson.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Soils remain moist and excessive runoff may result in
flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and
flood-prone locations.

[tron777]

I think the GFS is leading the way on the southern track thru KY into WVA. Just a rain event mainly for us. Like the 1-2" call with the heaviest axis along the I-64 corridor to ILN's S counties.

[cloudy72]

I think the GFS is leading the way on the southern track thru KY into WVA. Just a rain event mainly for us. Like the 1-2" call with the heaviest axis along the I-64 corridor to ILN's S counties.

Yeah it's looking that way. 18z NAM now trending a bit more south with any instability so I think south is the way to go. This also could affect rain totals up here in I-70 land. GFS has less QPF here (0.5"-0.7") than you guys down along the river and south.

[tron777]

Not a terrible NYE. I think the rain holds off until overnight. A wet NYD of course tomorrow. Not concerned about severe wx locally. To our south is a different story. Still like 1-2" of rain so no changes from me on that. As most know, falling temps and some snow showers possible on Sunday.

[tron777]

2"+ of rain at CVG per the 12Z NAM.

[tpweather]

2"+ of rain at CVG per the 12Z NAM.

Hey Les and I am starting to believe the higher totals will be just a little further north which may put us in the bullseye. No matter if we are there or the outskirts of the heaviest rain 1-2 is a no doubter but 3 inches is not out of the realm of possibility.

[tron777]

2"+ of rain at CVG per the 12Z NAM.

Hey Les and I am starting to believe the higher totals will be just a little further north which may put us in the bullseye. No matter if we are there or the outskirts of the heaviest rain 1-2 is a no doubter but 3 inches is not out of the realm of possibility.

It'll depend on how strong the low is. Weaker means further south and stronger more north as is usually the case. I think the low tracks thru KY with this system. A central KY track would put us more in the 2-3" range. SKY is 1-2" range for us.

[tpweather]

2"+ of rain at CVG per the 12Z NAM.

Hey Les and I am starting to believe the higher totals will be just a little further north which may put us in the bullseye. No matter if we are there or the outskirts of the heaviest rain 1-2 is a no doubter but 3 inches is not out of the realm of possibility.

It'll depend on how strong the low is. Weaker means further south and stronger more north as is usually the case. I think the low tracks thru KY with this system. A central KY track would put us more in the 2-3" range. SKY is 1-2" range for us.

100p/c agree Les and the 3 inch totals will be a narrow band and just need to nowcast on Saturday.

[tron777]

2"+ of rain at CVG per the 12Z NAM.

Hey Les and I am starting to believe the higher totals will be just a little further north which may put us in the bullseye. No matter if we are there or the outskirts of the heaviest rain 1-2 is a no doubter but 3 inches is not out of the realm of possibility.

It'll depend on how strong the low is. Weaker means further south and stronger more north as is usually the case. I think the low tracks thru KY with this system. A central KY track would put us more in the 2-3" range. SKY is 1-2" range for us.

100p/c agree Les and the 3 inch totals will be a narrow band and just need to nowcast on Saturday.

Exactly Tim... it'll be a nowcast. I like the placement of ILN's Flood watch currently too. Everyone south of the Metro is included in the watch area.

[tron777]

I like the 12Z GFS's track for this system. W TN thru SE KY and into WVA. Keeps the heaviest rains south of us. S of I-70 1"+ 1.5" for CVG. 2-3"+ band south of us. 3" + band either side of the I-64 corridor. I think this is a solid call for rainfall.

[tron777]

Per 12Z GFS Middle and Eastern / SE KY looks good for a few inches 1/2 to 1/3 with that secondary system ramping up along the departing cold front.

[MVWxObserver]

I've brought in my rain gauge for the winter so however much falls for the New Year's weekend system i.e. up this way, ca sera sera, whatever will be, will be.